Kickoff to primary season

THE MIDTERM SEMIFINALS
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent

Both chambers of Congress are up for grabs. The president’s approval rating is on both parties’ minds. And, thanks to last week’s leaked draft opinion, the Supreme Court has entered the campaign like a lightning strike.

The 2022 midterms are a collision of all three branches of the federal government, along with control of dozens of governors’ mansions and state legislatures.

This month – the first with significant primaries – offers the first real temperature checks of the candidates each party will put on the ballot in this high-stakes year.

Here’s an early cheat-sheet to this midterm season, and why this month matters.

There are 10 states with primaries this month.

Today: Nebraska and West Virginia
In one week: Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania
May 24: Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia

Key races the next two weeks

For Republicans, the theme is former President Donald Trump and whether his endorsements continue to carry candidates forward. Democrats have fewer high-profile, competitive primaries, but do have some big personality decisions to make as they try to hold onto the House and Senate.

Ohio and Trump. May 3. Republican voters in the Buckeye State chose J.D. Vance as their U.S. Senate candidate. In a race full of candidates professing faith to Trump, Vance was the only one with his formal endorsement. And it helped pull him a full eight points ahead of the pack. It is a longshot, but Democrats would love to regain Ohio.
West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District and Trump. Today. Two Republican members of Congress on different sides of some Trump-related issues are duking it out in a single district in West Virginia, thanks to redistricting in the Mountain State. Trump has endorsed Rep. Alexander Mooney after vowing to take revenge against Rep. David McKinley, who was one of the 13 House Republicans to vote for the bipartisan infrastructure deal.
Nebraska governor’s race and #MeToo. Today. Another race with some plot twists. The Trump-endorsed Republican candidate for governor in Nebraska has faced accusations of groping by eight women. The fate of Charles Herbster in tonight’s primary may have implications not just for Trump but for how voters react to #MeToo sexual harassment allegations in a conservative state.
North Carolina. May 17. The Tarheel State has a host of interesting races to watch.
- Republican Senate race. A former governor, Pat McCrory, is taking on current Rep. Ted Budd and former Rep. Mark Walker in yet another "will the Trump endorsement matter" race on the GOP side. (Trump is backing Budd.) Every Senate race matters this year, especially in recent purple states.
- 1st Congressional District – Progressives versus moderates. The district of retiring Rep. G.K. Butterfield is critical for Democrats. It has been redistricted in a way that makes it a possible GOP pickup. Next week, Democrats will have to choose between a current state senator who has occasionally voted with Republicans or a former state senator who is leaning more left and progressive.
- Madison Cawthorn (11th Congressional District). Congress’ youngest member has had a knack for scandal, with so many that a brief summary here would require a few paragraphs. This will be a test of the Republican's relationship with his district and if he can survive a tough primary challenge.
Pennsylvania. The NewsHour politics team is heading out to the Keystone State at the end of the week to check out these fascinating races.
- U.S. Senate – Republicans. Again, there is a Trump factor. Television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz has the former president’s endorsement. Businessman David McCormick does not. BUT McCormick does have video of Trump praising him in the past. The result has been an expensive and brutal unleashing of attack ads between the men. With many undecided voters, a third candidate – an anti-abortion conservative named Kathy Barnette – is starting to gain some appeal.
- U.S. Senate – Democrats. Big personality Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is looking strong in recent polls. However, Rep. Conor Lamb has shown he has broad appeal in the state. The question is: Can that bring in primary voters?
- Governor’s race. This may be especially critical to watch in terms of abortion restrictions. Both parties have made it clear to voters where they stand. The state’s sitting Democratic governor has repeatedly vetoed legislation that would increase abortion restrictions. All of the Republican candidates in this race seem ready to roll back abortion protections. It is a question of whether Republicans will select the candidate with the best chance of winning in November.

The big picture. A quick step back here for a reminder of what is at stake this year.

35 U.S. Senate seats are on the ballot. With the 50-50 Senate, either party that gains a net of Senate seats will control the chamber. Just nine races are seen as competitive at the moment, according to the Cook Political Report.
All 435 House of Representatives spots are up for grabs. We are still waiting for final redistricting maps, so it is hard to pinpoint how many are competitive. It will likely be dozens.
Voters will also get a say in the next governor in 36 states.

Speaking of midterms …

What issues are most important to you when considering your own vote this November? What questions do you have about newly drawn districts, or the big-picture political landscape? Drop your questions to [email protected]. Your questions can help guide our coverage in the next several months.

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Joshua Barajas, @Josh_Barrage
Senior Editor, Digital

We’re still a ways out from the 2024 U.S. presidential election, but today is the 150th anniversary of the first woman to be nominated for the nation’s highest office.

Before Hillary Clinton’s history-making presidential campaign in 2016, about 200 women had pursued a spot in the Oval Office, but this 32-year-old is considered the first to do so in 1872, about 50 years before women were allowed to vote.

Our question: Who was the first woman to run for U.S. president?

Send your answers to [email protected] or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: How many states currently have senators that caucus with different political parties?

The answer: Six. They are Ohio, Montana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Maine.

Congratulations to our winner: Dean M. Gottehrer!

He was the first person to name all six states and will soon be an owner of a brand new NewsHour tee.

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.