It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.   

Photo by Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

ABORTION IN AMERICA
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

The reality and law surrounding one of the most polarizing issues in modern U.S. politics appears poised to shift dramatically. We are still less than one day out from news of a leaked draft opinion ([link removed]) from the Supreme Court, now verified ([link removed]) by Chief Justice John Roberts, that suggests a majority of justices are ready to overturn Roe v. Wade ([link removed]) . In its wake, Americans are facing a very different landscape ahead for abortion.

We thought it might be helpful to lay out what we know about abortion in the U.S. right now.

The number of abortions
* Nearly 630,000 legal abortions were reported to the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention in 2019 ([link removed]) . That’s the most recent year for which the CDC has provided data.
* That represented 18 percent fewer abortions than a decade before. It was a slight increase – 2 percent – over the number of abortions since 2018, though experts say the causes for that may be many and not only due to abortion law ([link removed]) .
* Note: There are limitations to this data. The CDC notes that its most current statistics are incomplete. For one, three states – California, Maryland and New Hampshire – did not submit abortion data for the agency’s latest data collection.

Who obtains abortions?
* Mostly younger women. Women in their 20s, account for the majority of abortions (56.9 percent), per the CDC data.
* Race, by the numbers. In overall numbers, Black, non-Hispanic women had 38 percent of all abortions in 2019, and white, non-Hispanic women accounted for 33 percent. They were followed by Hispanic women, who accounted for 21 percent of all abortions.
* Race, proportionally. But looking at the data relatively, Black women rely on abortions at a far greater rate than those who are white. According to the CDC, Black, non-Hispanic women had the highest rate of abortion in the country – about 23 abortions per 1,000 women each year. For non-Hispanic, white women, the figure is a quarter of that: 6.6 abortions per 1,000 women. But, the CDC also notes that it only included measures of race and ethnicity from 30 states that met the agency’s reporting standards.
* First-time. The majority of women having abortions – 58 percent – were doing so for the first time.
* Mothers. Nearly 60 percent had given birth in the past.
* Mostly unmarried. 85.5 percent of abortions were performed for unmarried women. The other 14.5 were married.
* Note here, too: Women are not the only people who get abortions. This is an issue that also impacts transgender, intersex and gender-nonconforming people ([link removed]) who can become pregnant. However, their experiences aren’t necessarily reflected in national data collections.

When and how?
* First three months. The vast majority of abortions, 92.7 percent, were done before 13 weeks of pregnancy. A large majority – 72 percent – happened at 9 weeks or sooner of pregnancy. (That could prove significant in terms of varying state laws ahead.)
* Medication-induced. A large amount – 42.3 percent – of all abortions in 2019 were conducted by medication during early pregnancy, according to the CDC. More recent surveys of abortion providers from the Guttmacher Institute, a research and policy organization supporting abortion rights, suggests that medication abortion accounted for 54 percent of all U.S. abortions ([link removed]) in 2020.

Reasons for having an abortion

There is not overwhelming data on this question, but we found a 2018 NIH paper ([link removed]) that looked at data collected from 30 abortion facilities from 2008-2010 in the United States. Here is what it found. Notes: This is not necessarily nationally representative, but may give a sense of the universe involved here. Also, women could select multiple answers, so these do not add up to 100.

Here are the most frequently chosen answers.
* Money. 40 percent said they had an abortion because they weren’t financially prepared to have a child.
* Timing. 36 percent said it was not the right time for a baby.
* The father or partner. 31 percent said it was related to their partner.
* Other children. 29 percent said they wanted to focus on their other children.
* Their own future. 20 percent said that having a child would interfere with their future.
* Not prepared. 19 percent said they were not emotionally or mentally prepared.
* Risk to maternal or fetal health. 12 percent listed the health risks to the mother or the baby as a reason.


BEFORE MIDTERMS, A KEY SHIFT ON WHO VOTERS TRUST MOST WITH INFLATION
By Laura Santhanam, @LauraSanthanam ([link removed])
Health Reporter & Coordinating Producer for Polling

Despite historic employment levels and wage growth, runaway inflation is what’s top of mind as soaring prices hit everyone’s wallets, giving Republicans a political edge in the weeks before more than a dozen states hold their primaries, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll ([link removed]) .

By this one, critical measure, the public trusts the GOP more than Democrats right now to control inflation, and by a huge margin – 21 percentage points.
Illustration by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour

The economy is not the only pressing issue on which Republicans have voters’ trust. About four out of 10 Americans prefer GOP leadership on national security, gun policy and crime.

For comparison, U.S. adults tend to think Democrats do a better job handling the coronavirus, abortion, education, voting rights, election security, LGBTQ rights and climate change. But Lara Brown, a political scientist at The George Washington University, said most people see less urgency in those issues. That’s problematic not only for Democrats vying for Capitol Hill, but also the one residing in the White House.

“[Biden] could be the second coming of Abraham Lincoln, and it wouldn’t matter in these economic times,” said David Barker, who directs American University’s Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies.

More on the upcoming midterms from our coverage:
* Watch: The new polling data indicates a rocky road ahead ([link removed]) for Biden and the Democrats as the midterms close in.
* One Big Question: Nearly six months before Election Day, how will Democrats reconsider their strategy against Donald Trump and his wing of the Republican Party? Amy Walter and Annie Linskey weigh in ([link removed]) .
* Deeper Dive: It's primary day in Ohio and Indiana. In the Buckeye State, there’s a closely watched Republican primary for a Senate seat. It’s the first big test of Trump’s influence ([link removed]) on the midterms.
* Perspectives: Brooks and Capehart share what stood out in the polling numbers ([link removed]) on what voters may be thinking.


#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Matt Loffman, @mattloff ([link removed])
Politics Producer

Today, Democratic and Republican primary voters in Ohio will choose their respective party nominees for the U.S. Senate seat held by retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman. The nominee from each party will compete in the November general election; the state’s other senator, Democrat Sherrod Brown, does not face re-election this year.

With two sitting senators serving from different parties, the situation in Ohio is rare. In 1980, 27 states had split Senate delegations, but the current 117th Congress hit a record low number of states with two-party representation.

Our question: How many states currently have senators that caucus with different political parties? (Hint: Vermont with one Democrat and one independent that caucuses with the Democrats does not count.)

As a bonus, because it’s the kickoff to an especially primary-heavy month, the first person to also name all the states in question will get a tee ([link removed]) from our NewsHour shop.

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Which brooch did the late Madeleine Albright wear to her swearing-in ceremony as secretary of state?

The answer: An eagle pin ([link removed]) . During her swearing-in ceremony, Albright’s antique eagle pin, which had a complicated clasp, wasn’t properly fastened. The eagle, wings open, was dangling sideways ([link removed]) on her jacket.

Congratulations to our winners: Joanne Martin, Mardi McKellips and Stephanie Courington!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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