One of the most surprising takeaways from France’s presidential election campaign might be the extent to which immigration—long the driving force for far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and her supporters—occupied a relatively minor place in the political debate. Le Pen, who despite an historic performance earned less than 42 percent of the vote during the April 24 runoff and was defeated by President Emmanuel Macron, had promised to suspend all immigration to France and included in her platform efforts to revise France’s constitution to dramatically reduce the number of new arrivals.

But Le Pen’s campaign had focused less on the topic as it tried to make itself more palatable to mainstream voters, instead prioritizing pocketbook issues such as the cost of living. Outside factors also played a role, most importantly Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (although Le Pen, perhaps surprisingly, supported the arrival of Ukrainian refugees). And the race was complicated by the candidacy of Éric Zemmour, a political pundit convicted of racist hate speech regarding unaccompanied migrant children, who carved out a space even further to the right than Le Pen. (Zemmour finished fourth in the initial vote and did not proceed to the runoff).

It would be far too much to say that the election was a sign of anything approaching a sea change for political figures such as Le Pen, who counts admirers in the United Kingdom, the United States, and elsewhere. Indeed, the change in tone could be read as a sign that on Le Pen’s signature issue, the rest of the field had moved closer to her. Since first defeating Le Pen in 2017, Macron has repeatedly tightened France’s immigration rules, while the candidate for the center-right Républicains party of former Presidents Nicolas Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac, Valérie Pécresse, leaned into increasingly restrictive rhetoric on her way to a fifth-place finish.

For France, the outcome likely means more of the same, at least with regard to immigration policy. Yet the challenges facing Macron during his second term are different than in previous years. In the past, Macron and others had drawn a sharp distinction between migrants coming from elsewhere in Europe’s free-movement area and those from non-EU countries. Now, Macron and other European leaders must reckon with the more than 5.4 million people who have fled Ukraine since late February.

Notably, France holds the rotating presidency of EU Council through June. And ahead of the election, the leaders of Germany, Portugal, and Spain issued a remarkable endorsement for the incumbent. As perhaps the European Union’s most visible leader, Macron still has the opportunity to shape not only his own country’s response to new arrivals, but to an extent that of the European Union.

Best regards,
Julian Hattem
Editor, Migration Information Source
[email protected]