Having trouble? View this email in your browser. [[link removed]]

[link removed] [[link removed]] [link removed] [[link removed]]


[link removed] [[link removed]]


[link removed] [[link removed]]


The Russian economy will contract by as much 11 percent in the coming year. But the Ukrainian economy will likely contract by 45 percent.
Not long after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, U.S. and European allies moved to impose “crippling” sanctions the White House said would be a “powerful blow” to Moscow. The measures are definitely having an impact: Russia’s inflation has risen to 16.7 percent and the World Bank [[link removed]] is predicting its economy will fall into recession this year, shrinking as much as 11.2 percent.
The White House has also said that many of the sanctions imposed are only beginning to be felt in Russia. Unfortunately, the economic devastation in Ukraine is far greater and has been building since the first moments Putin invaded that country. The World Bank estimates that Ukraine’s economy may contract by 45 percent this year, and it is projecting an increase in poverty [[link removed]] from 1.8 percent to nearly 20 percent this year as the prices of commodities surge.
Half of Ukraine’s businesses have shut down [[link removed]] , while the other half are operating at reduced capacity. The destruction of major cities has destroyed a huge portion of Ukraine’s infrastructure, and Russia’s blockade [[link removed]] of Ukraine’s coast on the Black Sea has cut off nearly 90 percent of Ukraine’s grain exports, and half of its total exports [[link removed]] . War-related risk has caused shipping costs to increase five-fold [[link removed]] for vessels traversing the Black Sea regardless of nationality.
The International Monetary Fund’s Kristalina Georgieva has expressed confidence that sanctions against Russia will not cause a global economic crisis, but has nonetheless warned of stiff costs for neighbors [[link removed]] of Russia and Ukraine who traditionally have had deep trade ties with the two nations and may also be feeling the impact of millions of Ukrainian refugees crossing into their countries.
There’s no doubt that Putin’s war on Ukraine is exacerbating food security in many parts of the world. In sub-Saharan African countries, Russia and Ukraine make up about 50 percent of Africa’s wheat imports [[link removed]] . Other regions such as the Middle East [[link removed]] are similarly reliant, with Lebanon, Egypt and Tunisia importing over 60 percent of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine. The two countries are also major sources of the fertilizers used by small and large farms in many developing countries. At risk of missing the planting season, many farmers are going ahead without fertilizer—meaning yields will be lower and prices will continue to rise.


[link removed] [[link removed]]


No democratically elected Prime Minister of Pakistan has ever completed a five-year term.
Shortly after midnight on April 10, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted by a no confidence vote in the country’s parliament. Critics pointed to weak economic performance, a falling out with the country’s military leadership, and Pakistan’s poor relations with the West. When the opposition called for a vote of no confidence, Khan claimed he was the victim of a “U.S. conspiracy,” and tried to avoid the vote by moving to dissolve the legislature. The Supreme Court declared Khan’s move unconstitutional, and Khan was soon out of a job.
But perhaps nobody should have been surprised by his fall from power. Of the past 22 democratically elected prime ministers, not one has ever completed their full five-year term. Over the country’s 75 years of independence, its democratic leaders have been repeatedly deposed [[link removed]] in military coups, presidential dismissals, and disqualifications from holding public office. Some prime ministers have managed to be ousted multiple times: Nawaz Sharif has served more than nine non-consecutive years as prime minister over the course of three different terms. The Supreme Court eventually disqualified him from holding public office on grounds of corruption.
But Imran Khan is the first prime minister to lose his office in a vote of no confidence [[link removed]] . Shehbaz Sharif, brother of Nawaz Sharif, has been selected by Parliament to hold the role of prime minister until elections due in August [[link removed]] of next year. Sharif has a popular reputation for his direct and efficient administrative style [[link removed]] . Khan, now in opposition, continues to claim that his ouster was essentially American-backed “regime change.” Sharif is likely to face many challenges, the Wilson Center’s Michael Kugelman [[link removed]] recently told BBC—from the economic crisis to a resurgence in terrorist attacks to Khan’s disruptive brand of populist politics. Then there is also Pakistan’s legacy of “untimely political demise.”


AuthorAmbassador Mark Green Ambassador Mark Green [[link removed]]
President, Director, & CEO, Wilson Center

[link removed] [[link removed]] Hindsight Up Front: Ukraine
Visit our collection to learn more about the key forces at play, their implications for critical American interests, and the viewpoints of all the major players in Europe’s first 21st century strategic crisis.
EXPLORE [[link removed]]



[link removed] [[link removed]]One Woodrow Wilson Plaza Follow the Wilson Center
1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW [link removed] [[link removed]] [link removed] [[link removed]] [link removed] [[link removed]] [link removed] [[link removed]] [link removed] [[link removed]] [link removed] [[link removed]]
Washington, DC 20004-3027 Was this email forwarded? Subscribe now [[link removed]]
Phone: (202) 691-4000 [tel:(202) 691-4000]

© 2022 The Wilson Center. All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy [[link removed]] unsubscribe: [link removed]