The recently announced U.S. aid package to Ukraine differs from previous packages in that it includes major crew-operated weapons and, for the first time, major U.S. weapons. Until now, the United States has provided self-contained munitions like Javelins and Stingers. This package includes two major crew-operated weapons: 18 howitzers and 200 M113 armored personnel carriers (APCs).

SOURCE: "The Latest Aid Package to Ukraine Is a Major Escalation of Support" by CSIS's Mark Cancian.

As of April 21, polls estimate Emmanuel Macron winning the presidential election in France by about 56% of the vote. However, the final results may be impacted by the "known unknowns" such as the possibility that many supporters of far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon will stay home on election day, the turnout of Muslin voters' who fear a Le Pen presidency, and the strength of the "republican front" uniting against a far-right candidate.

SOURCE: "Five Years Later, French Face Same Contest but Different Odds" by CSIS's Donatienne Ruy.

Throughout Putin’s time in office, Moscow has pursued a policy toward Ukraine and Belarus predicated on the assumption that their respective national identities are artificial—and therefore fragile. However, today more than two-thirds of Ukrainian citizens claim Ukrainian as a native language (even in eastern regions) and more than two-thirds of Ukrainians support membership in the European Union.

SOURCE: "Russia’s War in Ukraine: Identity, History, and Conflict" by CSIS's Jeffrey Mankoff.

Economic coercion, or the use of economic policy to exact geopolitical outcomes, has accelerated in recent years. For example, following Lithuania's decision to allow Taiwan to open a de facto embassy in Vilnius, Beijing retaliated by downgrading trade relations with Lithuania. By December 2021, Lithuanian exports to China had decreased by 91 percent from the previous year, but China maintains that the retaliation amounts to an economic boycott.

SOURCE: "What Are the Trade Contours of the European Union’s Anti-coercion Instrument?" by CSIS's Emily Benson.