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🌤️ beyond the weather forecast

CNN’s weather team has more than 10 full-time meteorologists. For every forecaster on television, there’s a producer behind the scenes making maps and helping to prepare weather reports for both television and digital audiences. 

“We aren't always right, but we are never wrong,” says Judson Jones. “That is the attitude you must have as a meteorologist. You have to be confident. But you also don't always speak in absolutes. Nothing is ever actually 100% in weather, nor is it 0%.” 

We recently asked Jones and weather teammates Derek Van Dam, Jennifer Gray and Chad Myers — pictured above from left to right — to share some insights into how they cover weather news, how forecasting technology has changed and what stories have impacted them the most. Here’s what they told us: 

What's the biggest misconception people have about predicting the weather?  

I understand that people think that meteorologists just guess the forecast, but when I show friends the ultra-complicated weather models that we use, jaws drop. The models are just a simulation of what the computers believe will happen next. After millions or even billions of computations, the programs take what is happening now and project what will happen next.  

As the computers got faster, the forecasts got better too. Faster computers can handle more input, more data, and can make more accurate forecasts. Even with our new supercomputers, not all of the data can be used. I often say that every model forecast could be perfect if we put ALL of the possible data in. The problem is that your “perfect forecast” for tomorrow will be done computing next week.

What is the most impactful weather event you've covered?

When dry air and winds pick up to extreme levels, any spark can turn a beautiful weather day into hellish conditions, even in the Southeast. In 2016, I covered a rapidly spreading wildfire near Gatlinburg, Tennessee. Smoke filled the air as I arrived. 

I met a teenager and we talked for over an hour while his dad did TV interviews. We sat in silence some, we talked about his hobbies and we also talked about what it was like when he and his dad watched as his house went up in flames.  

The flames were too large for him and his dad to rescue his mom and sisters. I told him any of the details he told me would be off the record and I keep that promise to this day. But just writing these few sentences is bringing me to tears. 

His dad did tell me what it was like as they tried to rescue them: “I can't explain to you what hell looks like — but there was fire everywhere.” 

There is usually a story like this for every weather disaster we cover. It's what makes covering something so big and so powerful really, really difficult and devastating. It's what makes us so passionate about trying to inform people ahead of storms. 

How has climate change impacted your job? Is it harder to predict the weather? Is weather getting more extreme?

In recent years, we’ve seen hurricanes rapidly intensify like we’ve never seen before. We’ve seen storms drop historic amounts of rain, blizzards dump historic amounts of snow and volcanic eruptions that have lasted for months at a time. Our world is changing. Records of some kind seem to be broken on a weekly basis, and we are telling the stories and writing history.

Climate change is changing how we do our jobs. We are seeing the impacts of climate change unfold before our eyes, and it’s only going to get worse. I’m afraid that some of these record-breaking events are becoming the new normal.  

What are three things people should do to prepare for dangerous weather, no matter where they live in the US? And how has weather forecasting advanced in recent years?

Here are three things everyone can do right now:

• Have multiple ways to receive emergency weather warnings (phone alerts, weather radio, local TV).
• Know where the safest part of your home is and how to access it quickly during a storm.
• Have an evacuation route mapped out should a natural disaster approach your home.

Satellite technology and remote sensing have improved so much that we can observe virtually any atmospheric phenomenon with extreme detail. Having this minute-by-minute update provides meteorologists with the tools to “nowcast” (forecast in real time) specific hazards. We even have the ability to see within a storm to understand its inner workings. From wildfires to hurricanes and volcanic eruptions on the far reaches of the planet, we have the ability to see it all in stunning detail. 

📥  Subscribe to The Weather Brief newsletter, written by Judson Jones and Jennifer Gray, for amazing weather images, maps and dispatches from the field -- as well as significant storm alerts.

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Brought to you by CNN Underscored

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📢  before you go

💻 Watch: The award-winning documentary “Navalny” follows Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny through the harrowing investigation into the poisoning that nearly killed him. The film premieres Sunday at 9 p.m. ET on CNN TV and CNN+. See the trailer.  

✨ Get inspired: Samira Jafari, deputy managing editor of CNN’s investigations unit, donated one of her kidneys to CNN’s senior UN correspondent Richard Roth – even though she had never met him in person. It’s an inspiring story, and they appeared on “New Day” to explain how it all happened.

🔎 Explore: Twitter has been in the headlines recently, with Tesla CEO Elon Musk's offer to buy the social platform. Check out this 2007 CNN report on the very early days of "Twittering" before smartphones.

✉️  talk to us

Who would you like to see spotlighted next? Send your thoughts to [email protected]. We look forward to hearing from you.

- Written and edited by Beryl Adcock, Tricia Escobedo and Jessica Sooknanan