It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.   

Photo by Bing Guan/Reuters

WHERE ARE WE WITH INFLATION? (AND A WORD THAT RHYMES WITH ‘SUCCESSION’)
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

James Carville’s rule of modern politics has been ([link removed]) debated ([link removed]) and, at times, questioned entirely ([link removed]) . But in this moment, “It’s the economy, stupid,” remains a central theme ([link removed]) .

A range of recent ([link removed]) polls ([link removed]) have shown that Americans are quickly and sharply turning from mildly sour to deeply anxious about the economy.

Here’s a look at what we know.
* Inflation was 8.5 percent in March, year to year. That means average prices went up 8.5 percent ([link removed]) between March 2021 and March 2022.
* That is a 40-year high. Inflation was last this high in February 1981. Grace Kelly was still alive, and Serena Williams had not yet been born.
* What is this figure exactly? This is the broadest measure of consumer prices – the “all items” consumer price index ([link removed]) .
* Food and energy are the largest drivers. By a lot. Energy prices are up 32 percent(!) in a year. That is related to – but not entirely caused – by the war in Ukraine. Food prices are up 8.8 percent.
* Groceries are the main food spike. The Labor Department has a surprisingly understandable statistic called “food at home.” That jumped 10 percent since March 2021, leading to the price increase for what we eat. “Food away from home,” aka eating out, rose 6.9 percent. Both are historically high figures.
* What about inflation for everything else? If you take energy and food out of the mix, prices went up 6.5 percent in March, year to year.
* How bad is *that*? Still quite bad. That is the largest price increase for everything outside of energy and food since 1982.
* OK, how much of this happened in the last month? For the energy price spike, much of it. Gas and fuel oil prices jumped 18 percent from February to March. Food prices, however, have been consistently rising for months – by 0.5 to 1 percent each month since last fall.

The politics of inflation

Immediately, we want to caution: Polling is moving quickly on this topic. It is as if we are in the beginning of a storm – of what size and for how long, we don’t know. And thus swirling data is hard to analyze easily. But, on the other hand, polling *is* moving quickly on this topic. And it’s a midterm election year. Here are some data points that jumped out to us.
* Concern about inflation is rising sharply, parallel to the problem itself. Gallup’s polling ([link removed]) showed the percentage of Americans citing inflation as the nation’s biggest problem more than doubled from January (8 percent) to March (17 percent). Thirty-eight percent of people surveyedin a February poll from the PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist ([link removed]) said they thought inflation should be President Joe Biden’s top priority.
* But. The Gallup poll showed there are still more Americans worried about “the government/poor leadership,” with 22 percent of those surveyed in March 2022 citing that as their top concern.
* Still, national sentiment is darkening, even as Americans feel good about their local job market. A CBS poll out this month found that 63 percent see the national economy as “bad” right now, though 56 percent said their local job market was “good.”
* National unemployment is still very low. It’s at 3.6 percent, which is the second-lowest unemployment rate ([link removed]) since 1969, bested only by two months where it stood at 3.5 percent ([link removed]) in early 2020.
* Why the disconnect? Perhaps because most Americans feel price increases. In that CBS poll, a whopping two-thirds of those surveyed said that higher prices have been a hardship for their families. In January, even before the latest price spikes, Gallup found 49 percent of people surveyed were feeling hardship because of inflation.

Meantime – saying this gently – recession?

Let’s put this in the “keep an eye on it” folder.
* Most economists do not yet think a recession is inevitable. Though it is a debate, touched off in part by this column ([link removed]) from former New York Federal Reserve Chief Bill Dudley in March.
* What are the chances? Over the weekend, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist wrote to clients that he believes the chances of recession have risen to about 35 percent over the next two years ([link removed]) . But that same economist also placed the chance of a recession in the next 12 months at just 15 percent.
* Why the concern? The short version is that some economists believe that, in order to combat high inflation, the Federal Reserve will need to be so aggressive in raising interest rates that it could stunt the job market and economy overall. The debate is over whether the Fed should ease inflation with a “soft landing” that does not harm the economy or a “hard landing” that does some damage for long-term good.
* One idea to watch: the Sahm Rule. (Tip: “Sahm” rhymes with “Guam.”) Federal Reserve and recession watchers have recently started looking at something called the Sahm Rule ([link removed]) . Named for former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, it captures, in short, the idea that when unemployment suddenly spikes, it is an indication of a U.S. recession. In greater detail: Recession looms when unemployment’s three-month average jumps 0.5 percentage points over the previous year’s low. This chart ([link removed]) shows how the Sahm Rule has lined up with all modern recessions.
* The good news. Unemployment recently declined.
* The bad news. Unemployment is historically low and has little room to decline more. And much of that drop was due to recovery from the pandemic shutdowns. In addition, tremors from COVID-19 variants and the war in Ukraine could still have a significant and fast impact on unemployment.

More on the historic high inflation from our coverage:
* Watch: Prices on everything from groceries to gas have skyrocketed ([link removed]) . All signs point to the economy being strong, but we look at what the inflation means politically ([link removed]) for the White House.
* One Big Question: Why are corporations reaping record profits with inflation on the rise? Or, as Dion Rabouin of The Wall Street Journal put it ([link removed]) : “Companies aren't being forced to raise prices because of inflation. They're raising prices because they can.”
* Perspectives: Brooks and Capehart both agreed that inflation is a big political worry for the Biden administration – but one said there was a “faint glimmer of good news” ([link removed]) in the inflation data.


A LIFE-SAVING DRUG FOR MILLIONS
By Joshua Barajas, @Josh_Barrage ([link removed])
Senior Editor, Digital

On the last day of March, the House passed the Affordable Insulin Now Act ([link removed]) , which would cap insulin prices either at $35 a month or 25 percent of the negotiated price that your insurance plan pays. The legislation will now go to the Senate and – if passed – would go into effect in 2023.

At least 30 million people live with diabetes ([link removed]) in the U.S., and of those, more than 6 million use insulin, a lifesaving drug. But the high costs for insulin, which doubled between 2012 and 2016 ([link removed]) , according to one estimate, have placed a heavy financial burden on patients, who may skip doses or stop treatment to offset costs.

Yet a closer look at the details raises some questions about the limitation of this bill.

To start, it only applies to patients covered by private insurance and those who use Medicare. It does not help uninsured patients ([link removed]) . Also, as others have ([link removed]) pointed ([link removed]) out ([link removed]) , the bill doesn’t address the insulin prices themselves. It shifts the costs to employers and the government.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, has said she’s working with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., to introduce a proposal that takes a broader approach, legislation that would not only consider those uninsured but also the rising prices for insulin. Last week, both senators laid out their priorities ([link removed]) for the legislation.

WE WOULD LIKE TO HEAR FROM YOU!

What do you want to know about the current draft of the Affordable Insulin Now Act? What questions do you have about this bill or other measures that address the high costs for insulin? If you’re impacted by this policy, what would you like lawmakers to know? You can reach us at [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) .

Lisa and I will use an upcoming newsletter to cover some of your responses. Stay tuned —The PBS NewsHour is working on an on-air segment about this issue, too.

RAMADAN REFLECTIONS
By Saher Khan, @SaherMKhan ([link removed])
Politics Reporter-Producer

Millions of Muslim Americans are observing the holy month of Ramadan, a spiritual 30 days marked by fasting from sunrise till sunset. It is a time of spiritual growth, reflection and community. While the pandemic emptied mosques and quieted dining room tables, observers lost the in-person community aspect that comes with Ramadan. With many public health restrictions lifting this year, Muslim Americans are back to celebrating in ways that weren’t possible the past few years, some incorporating new traditions they adopted during the pandemic.

We reached out to Muslim members of Congress to learn how they’ve been celebrating.

Rep. André Carson, D-Ind.
Rep. André Carson (middle) poses for a photo during an Iftar dinner with friends. Photo courtesy of Carson

One of the most important parts of Ramadan is the time spent with friends, family, and other loved ones. This is particularly important for Muslims in America. As a minority group in my hometown of Indianapolis and across the country, these types of faith-based gatherings help to strengthen Muslims’ sense of belonging and reaffirm the collective power of our diverse community.

In 2020 and 2021, COVID-19 made it much harder to gather in person. Though we made the best of improvised events like Zoom Iftars, it just wasn’t the same. This year, I’m grateful that I have been able to see more of my fellow Muslims in person to observe this holy month. Though the pandemic is certainly not over, the miracle of vaccines has made it safer to gather this year, and it has been good for my soul. Ramadan Mubarak to all of my fellow Muslim across the Hoosier state, across America, and around the world!

Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn.

Ramadan is a time for self-reflection, for strengthening one’s faith and our relationships with Allah, family and friends. Fasting itself is a reminder of our humanity and the need to support those who experience hunger and thirst on a daily basis. It is a time of cooking together, sharing an Iftar meal with family, being in community with our fellow Muslims at community Iftar and prayer. For me, Ramadan is about joy, reflection, patience and generosity.

#POLITICSTRIVIA
A staffer in an Easter Bunny costume joins press secretary Jen Psaki at Monday’s White House briefing. Photo by Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

By Joshua Barajas, @Josh_Barrage ([link removed])
Senior Editor, Digital

After a two-year pandemic hiatus, the Easter Egg Roll returned to the White House ([link removed]) .

On a soggy Monday, an estimated 30,000 children and adults attended the in-person event on the South Lawn. The rain wasn’t going to scramble any plans to roll some eggs – and overuse egg-cellent puns.

The annual event dates back to 1878 when Rutherford B. Hayes opened the White House grounds for the first-ever Easter Egg Roll.

Our question: Under whose administration did the official White House Easter Bunny make its first appearance?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Following her confirmation, Judge Ketanji Brown is a justice-in-waiting for the next three months, until a new term begins in October. When was the longest previous gap between confirmation and taking the bench for a Supreme Court justice?

The answer: 1969. Warren Burger had to wait to take the bench, after a dispute between Presidents Richard Nixon and Lyndon B. Johnson stalled his approval to succeed Chief Justice Earl Warren.

Congratulations to our winner: Dean Gottehrer!

This was definitely a challenging trivia question. The answer, however, was artfully tucked into the NewsHour’s segment on Jackson’s historic confirmation ([link removed]) .

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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