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As discussed in our preliminary analysis, the numbers for March again show mixed results. Nonfarm jobs slowed substantially from February, essentially returning to the relatively stable average seen in the period October through January. Even if continued at this level, however, jobs would be on course to surpass the pre-pandemic peak towards the end of the year.
Employment showed stronger numbers but continued to mostly offset the employment declines shown in the last two months of 2021. In all, monthly employment gains averaged about 5,000 less than job gains over the past 6 months, yet another indication that the recovery has yet to bring workers back into the labor force at levels required to sustain the expansion and offset the downward pressures on long-term income prospects seen in the pervasive long-term unemployment during the previous recovery from the Great Recession. While California ranks better on this metric than other recovery measures, 22 other states have already surpassed the pre-pandemic February 2020 labor force numbers.
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