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Russia's Spiraling Defense Industry
Hudson guest contributor Dr. Can Kasapoğlu outlines why the future is bleak for the Russian defense industry [[link removed]].
1. The Ukraine War Has Weakened Russia's Defense Industry
In recent years, Russia successfully marketed weaponry that it debuted in the Syrian conflict, but the war in Ukraine will reverse those gains. Manufacturers must now prioritize the resupply of the Russian military. Exports will take a back seat.
On top of this temporary setback, a larger catastrophe looms. Russian arms manufacturers were already in trouble before the war. In 2020, the debts of the Russian defense industries totaled $39 billion. To subsidize domestic manufacturers, the government wrote off loans worth about $10 billion. Today, given the Russian military’s material losses, the country’s terrible economic outlook under an avalanche of Western sanctions, and the ongoing brain-drain exacerbated by the Kremlin’s strategic miscalculation, Russia’s defense industry is set to spiral downward.
2. Drones Have Tipped the Balance Against Russian Armor
Some 40 days into the conflict, the Russian military had already lost around 470 main battle tanks, the equivalent of a mid-sized European country’s entire tank arsenal. More than 230 pieces were hit by kinetic strikes, while the rest were abandoned by their crews or captured by Ukrainian forces.
Twenty-first century battlespaces pose another problem for Russian heavy armor, namely, unmanned aircraft systems (drones). By providing real-time and high-quality ISTAR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Target-acquisition, and Reconnaissance), drones enable artillery and rocket weaponry to target maneuver platforms and concealed defensive positions with greater accuracy. Drones also provide speedy battle-damage assessments, revealing the destructive effects of strikes and indicating whether additional salvos are needed to eliminate the adversary.
Evidence suggests that Ukraine's fire-support units have been systematically augmented by drones. The drone and artillery complexes became even more lethal when paired with guided shells, such as Ukraine’s very own Kvitnyk 152mm-class laser-guided munitions, which are able to hit a standard piece of paper from twenty kilometers according to Ukroboronprom. Ukraine’s Turkish-made Bayraktar-2 drones also carried out successful air-ground strikes on unprotected Russian armored vehicles. Directly and indirectly, drones tipped the balance against Russian armor.
3. Russia's Vulnerability to the Bayraktar TB-2
The war in Ukraine has exposed another weakness in Russian air defenses: their vulnerability to Turkish-manufactured drones, particularly the Bayraktar TB-2s. At the time of writing, OSINT outlet Oryx reports that the Russian military has lost fifty two air defense systems in Ukraine. Of the twenty-seven SAM systems that were lost to kinetic strikes, ten were hit by Bayraktar TB-2s, accounting for thirty-seven percent of the total kinetic eliminations. Even worse for the Russians, the kill list of the Bayraktar TB-2s includes Russia’s Tor-M2 and Pantsir systems, which were modernized specifically to intercept drones.
The vulnerability to Turkish drones stems, ironically, from the Bayraktar TB-2’s relative lack of speed. The Russians designed their systems to target Western, manned aircraft, but the Bayraktar TB-2 has a piston engine and it is slow-moving, making it hard for the Russian sensors to recognize it as a target aircraft. The Russian radar would find any other slow-moving, piston-engine drone equally difficult to detect.
Some experts may offer alternative explanations, but however one slices it, the vulnerability has been documented on multiple occasions and in diverse situations—in Syria, Karabakh, Libya, and now in Ukraine. If the Russian military cannot contend with drones in its most geopolitically important battleground, then the verdict is now clear: its air defense systems are simply not up to the challenge. And the problem is set to get worse. The international market for armed, military drones is on the rise. The number of suppliers and available products are growing fast. The chance that the Russian arms industry will keep pace is extremely small.
4. The Worst Is Yet To Come for the Russian Military
The future is bleak [for the Russian military]. Turkey’s drone industry is in the process of incorporating even more destructive munitions (such as MAM-T) certified for unmanned platforms with larger combat payloads, such as Baykar’s Akinci and Tusas’s Aksungur, which will also be equipped with better sensors. These bigger beasts will offer more signature to air defense sensors, but, especially when engaging unprotected armor, or operating over ill-networked air defenses, they will be able to unleash significantly greater firepower.
At the time of writing, the Israeli government has not cleared Baltic nations to transfer Spike anti-tank weapons to Ukraine. We have also not seen the U.S.-made Switchblade-600 loitering munitions in action, to say nothing of more advanced American drones. Had Russian armor faced these systems, it is safe to assume their losses would have been far worse.
5. Sanctions and a Failing Track Record Will Strangle Russia's Defense Industries
If the war becomes prolonged, and if the Ukrainians continues to bleed the invaders the spiral will intensify. The longer Russian troops operate in urban environments, the more war crimes they will commit. The Russian track record from Chechnya to Syria permits no other prediction. In today’s networked world, covering up atrocities is nearly impossible. When new war crimes to light, the sanctions will tighten, making it even harder for Russian defense industries to purchase needed supplies on the international market. Clients will find doing business with the Russians risky. They will have less trust in the quality of the products and less confidence in the ability of manufacturers to deliver on time and to guarantee a steady supply of spare parts. On top of this, some may also fear the moral stain of working with Moscow. In sum, the Russian brand has suffered a blow from which it will take years to recover.
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