We covered redistricting in a recent newsletter, but we wanted to update readers on the state of play.
Here’s the latest from CNN producers Ethan Cohen and Melissa Holzberg DePalo, who are closely tracking developments:
While May, with its busy primary calendar, is right around the corner, redistricting is still dragging on -- leaving voters in some states without new district boundaries for US House seats. And recent developments could erode some of the early successes Democrats had in the fight over new lines.
Three states -- Florida, Missouri and New Hampshire -- have not enacted new district maps to account for population changes documented in the 2020 census. And in all three, it’s Republicans who haven’t been able to agree with one another to finish drawing new congressional maps.
Republican Govs. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Chris Sununu of New Hampshire have halted the legislative process in their respective states. Last month, DeSantis vetoed a map passed by the Republican-controlled legislature because it didn’t break up a plurality-Black congressional district – which would have likely created another seat for Republicans. DeSantis instead proposed a congressional map that would decrease Black political power and cost Democrats more seats. Florida Republicans have promised to support DeSantis’ map in their special legislative session this week, but it’s likely to face legal challenges once it’s approved.
Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, Sununu opposed a map that Republicans passed which would have created one Republican-leaning district and one Democratic-leaning district. Sununu wants the map to be more competitive and give each party a more even chance at winning in both districts. The state House redistricting committee will review Sununu’s draft map this week, which could come just in time, as the state Supreme Court recently announced they’d appoint a special master to draw the map if Sununu and the legislature don’t come to an agreement.
And in Missouri, redistricting has been caught up in a feud between Republicans in the state legislature. A small group of state Senate Republicans refused for weeks to vote for a map that would maintain the current 6-2 Republican advantage; they wanted a 7-1 map. They eventually lost that fight, but now the plan has stalled in the state House. Multiple lawsuits are pending in the state to have the courts jump in to draw the map.
In many states however, just getting a map passed is only half the battle, as litigation over new lines can undo the work of state legislators.
In New York, a lower court judge ruled that the map drawn by the Democratic-controlled state legislature, which could favor the party in 22 of the state’s 26 congressional seats, was a partisan gerrymander that violated the state constitution. But that decision was stayed pending appeal. There will be a hearing on Wednesday, and a decision on the matter is expected soon after, but the case is still likely to end up in New York’s highest court. The longer legal proceedings drag on, the more likely it is that the legislature-drawn map will be used in this year’s elections.
Democrats also had another recent legal defeat in Maryland, where a state judge blocked that state’s map for similar reasons of partisan fairness. Under that map, Republicans could have been locked out of the state’s congressional delegation. However, Maryland Democrats came to an agreement with Republican Gov. Larry Hogan and enacted a new plan that would retain the state’s one safely Republican seat and make one of the state’s seven Democratic-held districts more competitive.
There are also ongoing court fights in several other states. In some, like Kansas, it’s possible maps could change before the 2022 elections. But we’re quickly approaching the heart of the primary calendar, and in many states with ongoing litigation, like Ohio, Georgia and Texas, any court ordered changes are more likely to take effect for the 2024 cycle.
