John --



Welcome to our latest weekly update from the state capitol!



The capitol is a lot quieter than it usually is during session. With committee hearings over and done with, we have entered the “hurry up and wait” part of the legislative session. It’s rare for all thirty senators to be on the floor at one time these days, which means that votes get delayed and important business must wait.



So why are we sticking around, you might ask? Ah yes, we haven’t passed a state budget yet! The most important task we have as legislators is to decide how the roughly $14 billion per year in our state budget gets spent.



Over my six years at the capitol, the sessions that go the longest tend to be the ones where we have more surplus dollars available to us. The thinking goes that the more money there is, the more proposed uses for those dollars there are, and that leads to fighting over how those dollars should be spent.



This happened last year, when our session dragged all the way to the very end of June and resulted in one of the longest sessions in Arizona history.



Here’s the thing: I think our legislative session will be even longer this year.



Here are the dynamics at play, and why I think session will go longer than normal:



We have a projected record budget surplus. $5.3 billion, to be exact. Now, most of those dollars are one-time, meaning any uses for those dollars should be used for short-term expenditures like paying down state debt, investing in infrastructure projects, or strengthening our water infrastructure. All good things! Our projected on-going budget surplus is over $1 billion per year, which means we could invest in our K-12 schools, our state universities and community colleges, and provide long overdue pay raises for some of our state employees. Again, all good things!



Some of my colleagues in the majority want to see LESS spending, however, and would be loath to support such significant new on-going investments. Which gets me to the next reason why session will be long…



Narrow margins in both chambers. As you know, the Senate is 16-14, and the House is 31-29. As we saw last year, this means that any one member of the majority can cause the legislative session to crash to a halt if they hold out on the budget or ask that something be included in exchange for their vote. Of course, this is only true if the majority insists on ONLY negotiating with members of their own party. Is there a way around that?



Yes! It would mean working with Democrats. Unfortunately, this often seems like the last resort. I am regularly holding conversations with my colleagues in the majority on the budget and remind them that it wouldn’t take a lot in the grand scheme of things to pass a bipartisan budget. There are certainly investments that we would like to see added, including additional dollars for our K-12 schools, our state universities and community colleges, and items like the housing trust fund and kinship care stipends. All these asks are reasonable and have attracted bipartisan support in the past. All that’s needed is the political will and the fortitude to reach across the aisle and ask for our support.



Retirements and departures. I’m not the only legislator who is not running for re-election or not returning next year. There is going to be a LOT of new faces at the capitol next year, and with so many legislators free of having to worry about re-election, that changes the dynamics a little bit. These members wouldn’t have to worry about casting a vote that might hurt them in a primary election or the general. For Republicans, it could mean they are more willing to hold out on the budget because they don’t fear the governor coming after them in a primary, for example. For Democrats, it could mean crossing the aisle and voting for the budget or other bills that they might otherwise not support.



You also have other members running for higher office, seeking to appease primary voters by proving either their conservative or progressive bona fides. These dynamics just add another level of uncertainty to an already chaotic process.



It’s the governor’s final year in office. And he wants to go out on a high note! High on Governor Ducey’s priority list is a very, very large tax cut, with the bulk of the dollars going to higher income Arizonans. This will cost *billions* of dollars per year and will put a huge dent in the surplus we are currently holding on to.



I would say that it’s unlikely that we leave session until the governor gets his tax cut. He also has other budget priorities like a significant investment in our state’s water future and pay raises for DPS officers. Since it’s his last year, he can’t wait for the next legislative session to get what he wants.



It’s for all these reasons and more why I think we are in for a long session. As for me, I’m continuing to have meetings daily with my colleagues on ways we can come together and pass a bipartisan budget.



I’ve voted for state budgets before when I felt they were responsible, practical steps forward for our state. I’ve supported investments in our K-12 schools and pay raises for our teachers. I’ve also voted no on budgets that I felt were the wrong step forward.



What would I like to see in this year’s budget? Here are a few of my top priorities:



A significant ongoing investment in our K-12 public schools. We have the resources, and the idea has bipartisan support. I want to make sure the public schools in my district have the resources they need to reduce class sizes, add school counselors, and raise pay for our teachers and support staff.



Continuing our investment in our state universities and community colleges. We can do this through increasing STEM funding for our community colleges and continuing the work we are doing with our state universities through the New Economy Initiative (NEI).



Restoring the investment in our state Housing Trust Fund. We can do this with federal dollars or state dollars, but however we do it, investing in our Housing Trust Fund is a critically important tool to help build affordable housing projects throughout the state.



Pass my Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) bill into law. You might remember my Earned Income Tax Credit bill (SB 1018) from earlier updates. It’s passed the Senate and is waiting to be heard in the House Appropriations committee. Passing an EITC is such a good idea the governor included it in his budget! While it would be great to include it in the budget, my preference would be to have my bill signed into law.



I’ve been hard at work on this for several weeks now and will continue to talk with my colleagues about how we can get this budget done and adjourn our legislative session. While I’d love to say we will finish our work soon, I think our session will drag well into June. Stay tuned!



Thank you as always for reading and remember that you can follow me on Twitter and Facebook for more regular updates!



Sean





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