On March 24, Pyongyang successfully test-launched an ICBM—but not the missile that it claimed to have launched. The regime may have been embarrassed about an earlier failure of its newest ICBM and substituted an earlier model to ensure success. North Korea will assuredly try again to test its large multiple-warhead ICBM and, having now rescinded its moratorium on major provocations, is more likely to conduct another nuclear test as well. Pyongyang’s escalatory behavior will exacerbate tensions in the region and necessitate stronger allied responses.
Heritage Senior Research Fellow Bruce Klingner writes that though stymied at the U.N. by Chinese and Russian obstructionism, the United States can and should lead an international effort to hold Pyongyang and other violators accountable and ensure sufficient defenses against the growing North Korean missile and nuclear threats. Specifically, the United States should:
- Fully enforce U.S. laws. For years, the United States has held off on sanctioning North Korean entities for which evidence of violations exists until Pyongyang conducted its next provocation. Treating law enforcement as a diplomatic tool to be bargained away or held in abeyance has undermined more effective execution of U.S. laws and diminished pressure against North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. Washington should move against all entities for which it has evidence of malfeasance.
- Enhance strategic missile defense of the American homeland. North Korea’s growing ICBM force, potentially with multiple warheads, poses problems for American homeland missile defenses. The United States currently has only 44 ground-based interceptors. The Biden Administration should maintain plans to augment the force to 64 interceptors by fielding the Next Generation Interceptor before the end of the decade.
- Augment allied regional ballistic missile defense. Pyongyang’s expanding force of tactical missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles increases the threat to U.S. forces and allies in the Indo-Pacific region. Washington should build an Aegis Ashore missile defense system on Guam to bolster the existing THAAD system. The United States should coordinate with allies South Korea and Japan to ensure that their missile defenses are sufficient to counter increasing North Korean missile threats.
- Resume allied military exercises on the Korean Peninsula. During the past four years, the U.S. and South Korea have canceled, reduced, and constrained their military exercises, and this has caused a deterioration in allied deterrence and defense capabilities. Washington and Seoul should return training levels to pre-2018 levels and resume temporary deployments of strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula, including strategic bombers, dual-capable aircraft, and carrier strike groups, deployment of which has been curtailed since May 2018.
Kim Jong-un’s decision to highlight the launch of an ICBM rather than masking it as an ostensibly civilian satellite launcher shows that North Korea’s self-restraint on major provocations has ended. He has clearly abandoned any interest in diplomatic dialogue for the foreseeable future, including bargains for maintaining the status quo in return for sanctions relief or economic benefits. As Pyongyang has repeatedly declared, any return to negotiations comes at the cost of U.S. concessions.
North Korea has often used any U.S. or South Korea reaction to its provocations to justify additional extreme measures. With both Washington and the incoming conservative administration in South Korea determined to strengthen allied deterrence measures in response to Pyongyang’s transgressions, there is likely to be an escalating cycle of rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula in the months ahead.
