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Firefighters work to extinguish fires after an attack by Iran-backed terror groups and Syria's Assad regime on a fuel tank in Aleppo, Syria on February 16, 2022. (Muhammed Said/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

As the Biden administration pursues a nuclear accord with Iran, Hudson Senior Fellow Michael Doran [[link removed]]and co-author Gadi Taub sound the alarm on the threat that Washington's policy poses to Israel. Writing in [[link removed]] Haaretz [[link removed]], Doran and Taub argue not only that the administration has gotten out of the job of deterring Iran, but that it will also oppose any Israeli efforts to sabotage Iran's nuclear program. Consequently, Israel faces a twin threat: a rising Iran, and an American policy that, in essence, shields Iran from Israeli attack. The Israeli government, however, has yet to formulate a strategy for dealing with both threats simultaneously. Doran and Taub suggest a way forward.

See key takeaways below, and sign up for Doran's Substack newsletter, The Struggle for Mastery in the Middle East [[link removed]], for his ongoing analysis.

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Key Takeaways

1. The Biden Administration's Flawed Appeasement Strategy

Biden’s team had originally promised to strive for a nuclear accord with Iran that was “longer and stronger.” But the deal he is negotiating in Vienna precludes the introduction of any improvements over the original accord, since the anticipated deal systematically removes all the meaningful restrictions on Iran’s military nuclear program by January 2031.

The overarching goal of the Biden administration is to reduce America’s involvement in the Middle East, and according to its way of thinking, doing so requires appeasing Iran. The assumption is that appeasement will integrate Iran into a new regional order, turning it into a stabilizing factor. One can understand where the U.S. is heading by examining the expected impact of the accord on Iran’s proxy forces. It’s patently obvious that the accord will dramatically bolster their standing since it will channel hundreds of billions of dollars into Tehran’s coffers over the coming decade, tens of billions almost immediately.

2. America Turns a Blind Eye to Attacks by Iran-Backed Terrorists

What is the U.S. plan for deterring Iran's empowered proxy forces? The answer is that there is no plan. Last year, when Iran’s proxy forces in Iraq attacked American targets in the al-Tanf region in Syria, near the border with Jordan, the Biden administration did not respond. Two weeks ago (on March 13), when the Iranians launched ballistic missiles which landed close to the American consulate in the Iraqi city of Erbil, again there was no reaction.

This passivity announces the intention of the United States to leave its allies to contend with Iran on their own. Take for example the United Arab Emirates. The Houthis, operated by Iran, have repeatedly attacked this country with missiles, doing so again during President Isaac Herzog’s visit to Abu Dhabi at the end of January. The U.S. has taken no significant steps to protect its ally.

3. How Israel Can Better Influence Washington

In practice, it will be difficult for American allies to deter Iran by themselves. Israel is somewhat better off in this regard. It is better equipped for taking action than other allies, and it reserves the right to undertake independent operations. The only question is whether Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, and the government they head are ready to contend with the conflict with the Biden administration that such a policy will necessarily generate.

Israel must adopt a stance similar to that of Prime Minister Churchill before the United States joined the Allied cause during World War II. A direct call for getting the tools that will enable Israel to vanquish Iran, without asking for direct American military assistance will force the administration to justify its pro-Iranian orientation to the American public, which it has been trying to hide behind the false rhetoric about a “longer and stronger” accord. Iran’s image in the U.S. is sufficiently negative to ensure Biden’s defeat in any competition over voters’ hearts if he is forced to admit openly that he prefers Iran over Israel.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.

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Disappointing and Troubling Behavior [[link removed]]

The Biden administration's efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal is shifting the balance of power in the Middle East toward the Islamic Republic at the expense of our allies in the Gulf, writes Michael Doran [[link removed]] in The Struggle for Mastery in the Middle East. The erosion of deterrence is emboldening Iran and endangering these key partners.

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America Is Dismantling the Pillars of Its Own Empire [[link removed]]

Biden’s determination to resurrect the Iran deal has convinced Saudi Arabia that the U.S. can no longer be relied upon to the protect the regional order it helped to create, writes Hudson Visiting Fellow Mohammed Khalid Alyahya [[link removed]] in The Jerusalem Post. While Washington may assume the Saudis have no choice but to grin and bear it, they may be pushing our ally into the arms of Beijing.

Read [[link removed]]

Virtual Event | Reassessing America’s Middle East Policy [[link removed]]

With the prospect of a newly empowered Iran on the horizon, Hudson experts Michael Doran [[link removed]], Jonathan Schachter [[link removed]], Peter Rough [[link removed]] sat down with Israeli former national security advisor Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Yaakov Amidror for a discussion on the impact of the Biden administration's policies in the Middle East.

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