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As discussed in our preliminary analysis, the preliminary results for February show some improvement over the prior months. Nonfarm jobs—again largely reflecting the continued reopening of jobs in the state, with actual growth beyond pre-pandemic levels limited to 5 industries—were up 138,100 in February compared to a relatively stable average of 61,600 in the preceding 4 months. Employment while improved remains weaker, rising an average of 103,000 over the past two months, reversing an average loss of 4,900 in the two months preceding.
The state, however, continues to lag the rest of the nation in recovery. As measured against the pre-pandemic peak in February 2020, nonfarm jobs are still 2.0% short of recovery in California compared to 1.3% in the rest of the states. Employment is still 3.6% below compared to only 0.3% in the rest of the states. The relatively weaker results in returning people back to work is also reflected in the continuing unemployment insurance claims data, with the latest results showing California’s claims only 5% above the pre-pandemic average in 2019, but the rest of the nation showing claims that are 10% below this level. California also continues to generate more than a fifth of the new claims nationally, and a quarter of the insured unemployed (a proxy for the number of continuing claims)
In the February results for nonfarm jobs, 12 states are now at or above their pre-pandemic level, with California ranking 29th in this recovery measure. Measured by employment, 20 states now exceed the pre-pandemic peak, with California coming in 41st.
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