Ukrainian Refugees Top Four Million as Reports Cast Doubt on Russian Pullback

Almost 10 percent of Ukraine’s population has fled the country (NYT) since Russia invaded, the United Nations said. Ukrainian officials reported new attacks near Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv after Russia said it would scale down military actions in those areas. U.S. military officials said “small numbers” of Russian troops repositioned (ABC) to the north of Kyiv but that they could be sent to fight elsewhere.

Yesterday, the head of the World Food Program appealed for an end to the war, saying its impact on global food supplies will be “beyond anything we’ve seen since World War II.” Today, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in China. Russia’s foreign ministry said the officials condemned sanctions (Reuters) on Russia by the United States and its allies. Lavrov will travel to India tomorrow.

Analysis

“As Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on and the humanitarian disaster deepens, Washington may be tempted to focus exclusively on punishing [Russian President Vladimir] Putin. But that approach might well backfire. In the short term, pursuing a negotiated settlement could head off a come-from-behind Russian win,” the RAND Corporation’s Samuel Charap writes for Foreign Affairs.

“Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, and Sudan source almost all their wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. The World Food Program, meanwhile, buys more than half of the wheat it distributes around the world from Ukraine. Supplies will be squeezed and prices will rise,” CFR’s Michelle Gavin writes.

CFR offers extensive coverage of the war in Ukraine.

Pacific Rim

South Korea: North Korea Passed Off Old ICBM as New One

South Korea’s defense ministry said an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that North Korea test-fired last week was likely an old model (Bloomberg), not a new one as Pyongyang claimed.

On The President’s Inbox podcast, CFR’s Scott A. Snyder discusses the challenge posed by North Korea’s recent missile tests.

Australia/India: Australia’s trade minister said a free trade agreement that the nations have discussed since 2011 will likely be announced within days (Bloomberg).

South and Central Asia

China Holds Talks on Afghanistan With U.S., Pakistani, Russian Envoys

The talks are taking place (SCMP) in the eastern Chinese city of Tunxi on the sidelines of a conference of Central Asian officials.

India/Russia: Moscow proposed that New Delhi use a system (Bloomberg) the Russian central bank developed for bilateral rupee-ruble denominated payments as India seeks to continue trading with sanctions-stricken Russia.

Middle East and North Africa

Yemen Cease-Fire for Ramadan Begins

The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen said it will pause attacks (Reuters) beginning today, and the Houthi rebels said they will cease cross-border attacks and ground offensives for three days. The Islamic holy month of Ramadan starts this week.

Israel: A Palestinian gunman killed five people (NYT) in the city of Bnei Brak. It was Israel’s fifth deadly attack in less than two weeks.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Report: Fighting in Ethiopia’s Afar Region Threatens Cease-Fire

Multiple diplomats and regional officials told Reuters that fighting has continued in Afar even after the government unilaterally declared a cease-fire last week.

For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR’s Gavin discusses Ethiopia’s uncertain truce.

DRC: Eight UN peacekeepers from Pakistan, Russia, and Serbia died in a helicopter crash (AFP) in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Europe

Germany Takes Step Toward Gas Rationing to Brace for Possible Halt in Russian Supplies

Germany activated an “early warning phase” of an emergency plan amid a dispute with Russia over payments for natural gas. If there is a shortage in supplies, the government will cut gas (FT) to some industries.

Americas

Migrants Crossing Colombia-Panama Border Nearly Triple From Early 2021 Level

In January and February, 8,456 people crossed the Darien Gap (UNHCR), a dangerous patch of jungle on the border between the two countries. During the same period last year, the total was 2,928 migrants.

Haiti: One person died and protesters burned a missionary plane during demonstrations against rising insecurity (AP) in the southern city of Les Cayes.

In this meeting, Jacqueline Charles, Daniel L. Foote, and Johanna Mendelson Forman discuss Haiti’s overlapping crises.

United States

FDA Approves Second COVID-19 Booster for People Aged Fifty and Older

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said adults over fifty years old and people with certain immune deficiencies can receive (NYT) a second COVID-19 booster shot at least four months after their first one.

Council on Foreign Relations

58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065

1777 F Street, NW — Washington, DC 20006

Shop the CFR Store

Forward This Email

Manage Your Email Preferences