Understanding the forces that affect young people’s decisions raises fundamental question about how to change their future. The impact of those choices and those choices themselves may be circumscribed fo young people of color, so we begin by asking, "What if society treated Black and Hispanic children the same way it treats White children? What if, from birth, they had the same experiences in school, at home, and in their communities?”
Researchers from the Urban Institute and Child Trends use the Social Genome Model, a microsimulation tool, to estimate how changes in adolescence and early adulthood influence well-being later in life. Using research evidence, they explored multiple scenarios to see how different early experiences and interventions affect lifetime earnings and disparities among Black, Hispanic, and White people.
This new analysis
models the effects of key interventions, such as revamping police practices that negatively affect Black teenagers and young men, improving access to student supports, and providing better jobs for young people transitioning into adulthood. These findings also show that if Black and Hispanic children had the same experiences in school, at home, and in their communities as white children—if we could eliminate the damaging effects of structural racism—the share of Black and Hispanic people with associate’s and bachelor’s degrees would increase. Projected lifetime earnings would increase by more than 60 percent for Black people and by 25 percent for Hispanic people.
This microsimulation modeling demonstrates how equity-focused interventions at crucial “crossroads moments” could ameliorate the impacts of structural racism, change available choices, and transform futures for Black and Hispanic adolescents and young adults.
