Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
March 21, 2022
Top of the Agenda
Ukraine Rejects Russia’s Demand to Surrender Mariupol
Ukraine defied Russia’s demand (RFE/RL) that it surrender the besieged port city of Mariupol, where residents face acute shortages of food, water, and heat (FT) amid Russian bombardments. At least ten million Ukrainians have been displaced internally (France 24) or have fled abroad as refugees.
 
In Mariupol, the deputy commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet became the latest high-ranking Russian officer to be killed (NYT) in Ukraine, while in central Kyiv, a Russian missile strike reduced a mall to rubble and killed more than eight people overnight. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed to Israel’s parliament for support over the weekend. U.S. President Joe Biden will speak to his counterparts from France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom today.
Analysis
“A negotiated peace would require mutual compromises & a willingness to own them politically. A more likely outcome for the near and even mid-term is neither peace nor war but an open-ended low-level conflict punctuated by pauses, flare/ups, and off & on talks,” CFR President Richard Haass tweets.
 
“Having bungled its initial attack, the next phase of the war rests on whether Moscow can solve its logistics challenges and stabilize its troop losses while Ukraine is supplied with more and better arms from the West,” Foreign Policy’s Jack Detsch and Amy Mackinnon write.
 
CFR covers everything to know about the war in Ukraine.

Pacific Rim
Hong Kong Moves Away From Strict COVID-19 Rules
Hong Kong will lift flight bans and shorten the quarantine period for passengers on incoming flights in the city’s most dramatic shift yet (Nikkei) away from Beijing’s zero-COVID policy.
 
China: Rescue operations began after a Boeing 737-800 passenger plane with 132 people on board crashed (SCMP) in the southern Guangxi region.

South and Central Asia
ASEAN Envoy Starts Mediation Meetings in Myanmar
Prak Sokhonn, Cambodia’s foreign minister and an envoy from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), begins a series of meetings (Reuters) with Myanmar’s junta today in hopes of facilitating a peace process the generals agreed to last year.
 
This Backgrounder looks at Myanmar’s troubled history.
 
Australia/India: Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met virtually (Hindustan Times) today. Modi said the countries agreed to hold annual summits, and Australia is expected to announce cooperation on areas including defense and producing rare earth minerals.

Middle East and North Africa
Algeria Recalls Ambassador to Spain Over Stance on Western Sahara
The move came after Spain backed Morocco’s plan (Bloomberg) to give Western Sahara more autonomy while still maintaining ultimate control over the territory. Algeria backs the Polisario Front independence movement, which claims control over Western Sahara.
 
Tunisia: Thousands of people in Tunis protested (Al Jazeera) against President Kais Saied, whose opponents accuse him of using the country’s political crisis to consolidate power.
 
For Foreign Affairs, Sarah E. Yerkes writes that Saied’s actions risk an authoritarian regression.

Sub-Saharan Africa
ECOWAS Envoy Leaves Mali Without Setting Election Date
The two-day visit by former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) envoy, sought to plan a pathway to elections (AFP) to return the country to civilian rule.
 
Somalia: Said Abdullahi Deni, the head of oil-rich Puntland State and a critic of Somalia’s current president, announced his candidacy (Bloomberg) in the upcoming presidential election.

Europe
Germany, Qatar Agree on Natural Gas Partnership
The deal is designed to partially replace (Guardian) Germany’s supply of liquefied natural gas from Russia.
 
This In Brief examines Russia’s energy role in Europe.

Americas
Brazilian Judge Revokes Days-Old Telegram Ban
The messaging app has allegedly been used (MercoPress) to disseminate misinformation in Brazil. Telegram’s founder pledged to improve the app’s procedures, so the Supreme Federal Court judge revoked the ban shortly after it was implemented.
 
Mexico: A new Mexico City airport opens today (AP) amid concerns about its long distance from the city center. The airport is a hallmark project of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s administration.

United States
Senate Committee Begins Confirmation Hearings for Supreme Court Nominee 
If confirmed, Ketanji Brown Jackson would be the first Black woman (NYT) to serve on the Supreme Court. If Democrats are united, they can confirm Jackson without any Republican support.
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