The US Must Reestablish Deterrence
by Judith Bergman • March 18, 2022 at 5:00 am
The complacency with which the Biden administration has come to view military threats, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as a thing of the past has led to a misguided prioritization of issues such as climate change as the biggest threat facing the US. This misguided focus has come at the expense of a realistic definition of what the US's vital national interests are and should be in the face of actual national security threats.
Over the past two decades, US leadership has waned, especially as it has retreated from the Middle East and Europe -- where its military presence has been reduced from 400,000 troops in the 1950s to just around 60,000 troops today. US credibility has been compromised, as its reputation for adhering to US commitments -- failing to prevent the crossing of red lines in Syria and the Afghanistan debacle, to mention just two examples -- has been wrecked.
Rebuilding deterrence will require a massive political and military recommitment to vital national interests. Those will require a policy reorientation that acknowledges that the US is the primary Western force in a world with global military threats from a variety of bad actors -- China, Russia, Iran and North Korea primary among them.
"How many times do you have to make this point that if you don't have more resources, you get political leadership that makes the case to the American people that we face threats on multiple fronts and if we want to defend our way of life as we know it and our interests around the world, protect our allies, not as acts of charity but because it benefits us, then you do it. And if you can't do it, you can't be a world power anymore..." — Former National Security Advisor, Ambassador John R. Bolton, Ronald Reagan Institute, February 24, 2022.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has proven, sadly, that US deterrence lies in tatters.
While Russia's invasion represents an absolute low point thus far, US deterrence has been eroding for years. The cause is failed policies and ill-defined national interests, which bad actors such as Russia, China and Iran have clearly been noting.
They saw, in 2013, President Barack Obama demonstrating that a "red line" by the US in Syria meant nothing, and that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad could get away with killing 1,400 civilians with chemical weapons. They saw that Russia could invade Georgia and annex Crimea, while China could seize Hong Kong -- and the US let them, with no negative consequences, not even a side effect.
