March 15, 2022

Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.

After Covid, 16-64-year-old working age adults have not fully reentered the labor force as inflation-induced recession looms

After Covid, the employment population ratio of 16- to 64-year-old working age adults — the percentage of people legally eligible to work who are working — has declined 1.9 percent, from a peak of 71.4 percent in 2019 to 69.4 percent in 2021, according to unadjusted annual average data compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And that was with the population of 16-64-year-olds declining by 1.1 million since 2019, from 206.3 million to its 2021 average level of 205.2 million.

Cartoon: Spin-O-Matic

Garbage in, garbage out.

Oil Workers Say Psaki is Lying to Americans

Jen Psaki says there are 9,000 unused oil permits approved, but oil workers say those sites are likely useless and that she is lying to Americans.

"I Did That" Funny Sticker

As gas prices continue to rise, Biden blames it on Putin. Everyone knows Biden is responsible.

Kevin Daley: Ginni Thomas Wants To Set the Record Straight on January 6 - Washington Free Beacon

“Virginia ‘Ginni’ Thomas wants to clear up a few things about January 6. She did not help organize the White House rally that preceded the riot at the Capitol. She did attend the rally, but got cold and left early. And most importantly, in her view, her involvement with the event has no bearing on the work of her husband, Supreme Court justice Clarence Thomas. A veteran conservative operator, critics have for decades charged that her political activity poses an ethics conundrum for the justice. She was keen to dispel misperceptions and shared fresh details about her professional life.”

After Covid, 16-64-year-old working age adults have not fully reentered the labor force as inflation-induced recession looms

After Covid, the employment population ratio of 16- to 64-year-old working age adults — the percentage of people legally eligible to work who are working — has declined 1.9 percent, from a peak of 71.4 percent in 2019 to 69.4 percent in 2021, according to an Americans for Limited Government Foundation analysis of unadjusted annual average data compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That is little better than 2016, when it registered 69.35 percent, as Covid erased all the gains made by labor markets during the Trump economy from 2017 to 2020. The peak in labor markets of 2019 had been the highest 16-64-year-old employment population ratio reading since 2007, before the financial crisis.

And that was with the population of 16-64-year-olds declining by 1.1 million since 2019, from 206.3 million to its 2021 average level of 205.2 million. The 16- to 64-year-old population in the U.S. recently peaked in 2018 at 206.5 million as Baby Boomers have reached retirement age en masse, more than offsetting the overall population growth of 16-64-year-olds, which has slowed almost entirely due to declining fertility in the U.S. since birth control was widely adopted in the West.

The current employment population ratio reading of 69.4 percent represents a 2.8 million jobs gap for working age adults that still remains from 2019 to 2021 as the U.S. economy continues to recover from the global economic lockdowns that cost 25 million jobs by April 2020.

Which is too bad, because the next recession may already be on the horizon, this time triggered by an overheating economy after Congress spent and borrowed more than $6 trillion to fight Covid after Jan. 2020. Since then, the M2 money supply has skyrocketed by more than $6.4 trillion to $21.8 trillion, the highest ever, and inflation is raging at 7.9 percent.

In the five recessions that preceded the Covid pandemic recession, each time inflation got above 5 percent, on average within 14 months there was another recession in the U.S.

Meaning, there might not be enough time to get labor markets as represented by the employment population ratios back to where they were before the next recession strikes — which could set overall progress back several years, along with the careers of younger Americans.

Here’s the long-term concern: Given the historical connection between the working age population and economic growth, a declining 16-64-year-old working age population will almost certainly mean slower real economic growth going forward, with or without inflation.

In Europe, too, these demographic declines have also been painful, with the same pattern: a slowing working age population and economy.

Once the current bout of inflation has run its course and the economy overheats, the U.S. could plunge into another recession and even deflation. If labor markets do not lead a quick recover, that might lead Congress to respond with yet more spending, borrowing, and printing — creating another inflationary cycle. But all the helicopter money in the world could never accomplish what a growing labor market could.

Grow, or die. That’s the essential lesson that Japan and Europe teach us. With a healthy growth of labor markets, over time, positive economic growth without high inflation is attainable. Without it, and the growth engine of the economy — and capitalism itself — can grind to a halt.

Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.

Kevin Daley: Ginni Thomas Wants To Set the Record Straight on January 6 - Washington Free Beacon

She did not help organize the White House rally that preceded the riot at the Capitol. She did attend the rally, but got cold and left early. And most importantly, in her view, her involvement with the event has no bearing on the work of her husband, Supreme Court justice Clarence Thomas.

A veteran conservative operator, critics have for decades charged that her political activity poses an ethics conundrum for the justice. She was keen to dispel misperceptions and shared fresh details about her professional life.

"Like so many married couples, we share many of the same ideals, principles, and aspirations for America," Thomas told the Washington Free Beacon. "But we have our own separate careers, and our own ideas and opinions too. Clarence doesn't discuss his work with me, and I don't involve him in my work."

Though Thomas has taken steps to adjust her public profile, such as deleting her Facebook page, she has no plans to curtail her professional activities.

In a wide-ranging interview, Thomas spoke for the first time about a series of recent news reports linking her with the events of Jan. 6 and alleging Mrs. Thomas's activities create a conflict of interest for her husband and undermine the Supreme Court's standing with the public.

"If you are going to be true to yourself and your professional calling, you can never be intimidated, chilled, or censored by what the press or others say," she said.

In January, the Supreme Court rebuffed former president Donald Trump's request to quash a House subpoena for White House records relating to the 2020 elections. Justice Thomas was the only member of the Court to publicly note his dissent.

That datapoint, combined with incomplete public accounts of Mrs. Thomas's advocacy related to the 2020 election, spawned a push for the justice to recuse himself from future cases related to the events of Jan. 6.

Thomas told the Free Beacon that she was in the crowd at the Ellipse rally for a short time the morning of Jan. 6, but returned home before Trump took the stage at noon. Her presence at the Ellipse during the morning was the extent of her activity, she said.

"I was disappointed and frustrated that there was violence that happened following a peaceful gathering of Trump supporters on the Ellipse on Jan. 6," Thomas told the Free Beacon. "There are important and legitimate substantive questions about achieving goals like electoral integrity, racial equality, and political accountability that a democratic system like ours needs to be able to discuss and debate rationally in the political square. I fear we are losing that ability."

In January and February, the New Yorker and the New York Times Magazine each published longform pieces alleging that Thomas had a much larger role in the events of Jan. 6. The Times in particular cast Thomas as an important trouble-shooter in the leadup to the rally, reporting she acted as an intermediary among bickering activists organizing the event.

Citing second-hand information from organizer Dustin Stockton, the Times reported that Thomas acted as a peacemaker between two feuding faction leaders—Jenny Beth Martin of Tea Party Patriots and Amy Kremer of Women for America First—convincing both to participate in the rally for the sake of shared goals.

"I played no role with those who were planning and leading the Jan. 6 events," Thomas said. "There are stories in the press suggesting I paid or arranged for buses. I did not. There are other stories saying I mediated feuding factions of leaders for that day. I did not."