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AVAC's weekly COVID News Brief provides a curated perspective on what COVID news is worth your time.

"Privileged people should not get to decide on their own that a global pandemic is over. The way out is the same as it’s always been: making sure we get everyone to the finish line, not just a select few. Humanity did this with smallpox and could soon achieve this with polio and guinea-worm infections. The real barrier to ending this COVID-19 crisis around the world is not science or resources—it’s us."
— Nadia A. Sam-Agudu, Boghuma Kabisen Titanji, Fredros Okumu & Madhukar Pai in The Atlantic ([link removed])


** Daily New Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths per Million People
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March 8, 2022
Source: Our World in Data ([link removed])


** Table of Contents
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* If You Are in a Hurry (#hurry)
* Getting to a New Normal (#getting)
* Six Million Confirmed Deaths and Counting (#six)
* Vaccine Access and Rollout (#access)
* Research for New COVID Drugs (#research)
* Next Generation Vaccines (#next)
* Long COVID (#long)


* Racial Disparities Persist and Worsen in the US (#racial)
* COVID and Politics (#politics)
* Pinpointing Who Gets Severe COVID (#pin)
* COVID and Animals (#animals)
* COVID and Mental Health (#mental)
* Testing (#test)


This week the world marked another grim milestone, passing 6 million documented global COVID deaths. Even as this milestone was reached, much of the news has turned away from COVID. For the first time in over two years COVID has fallen from front page top story news to below the fold as the war in Ukraine rightfully takes the lead news stories in many places.

Yet the war is the not the only reason COVID seems less newsworthy these days. Many rich countries are trying to move on from COVID and return to a sense of normal. A commentary in The Atlantic ([link removed]) (US) argues, “The rush in the rich countries to declare the pandemic ‘over’ while it continues to ravage the global South is completely predictable—in fact, the same trend has played out again and again. Infectious diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis, and AIDS that are now seen as ‘Third World diseases’ were once serious threats in rich countries, but when incidence of these diseases began to decline there, the global North moved on and reduced investments in new tools and programs. Now, with COVID-19, the developing world has once again been left to fend for itself against an extremely transmissible virus without the necessary vaccine doses, tests, and treatment tools. Some pandemics never
truly end—they just become invisible to people in the global North.”



** If You Are in a Hurry
------------------------------------------------------------
* Listen to a Bhekisisa podcast ([link removed]) with Salim Abdool Karim on the next possible wave and how the pandemic might end.
* Read about 6 million global COVID deaths and what might be next for the pandemic in The Washington Post ([link removed]) .
* Read about a new report ([link removed]) that looks at how to get to the ‘next normal’ from the pandemic in STAT ([link removed]) .
* Read Nature ([link removed]) for a look at progress on new treatments for COVID and why researchers are optimistic about what 2022 will bring.
* Read POLITICO ([link removed]) on global health leaders shifting focus from ending COVID to pandemic preparedness.
* Read about efforts to develop pan corona vaccines in Medscape ([link removed]) and efforts to develop new drugs in Nature ([link removed]) .
* Read Capitol FM ([link removed]) on a plan for Moderna to open a new mRNA plant in Kenya.




** Getting to a New Normal
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STAT ([link removed]) (US) reports on a new report ([link removed]) [that] plots a course to what its authors call the ‘next normal’ — living with the SARS-CoV-2 virus as a continuing threat that needs to be managed. Doing so will require improvements on a number of fronts, from better surveillance for COVID and other pathogens to keeping tabs on how taxed hospitals are; and from efforts to address the air quality in buildings to continued investment in antiviral drugs and better vaccines. The authors also call for offering people sick with respiratory symptoms easy access to testing and, if they are positive for COVID or influenza, a quick prescription for the relevant antiviral drug.”

POLITICO ([link removed]) (US) reports on a conversation among “a select group of the world’s most prominent health leaders” last month. “As guests spoke, it became clear that the majority had concluded what so few were willing to say publicly in fear of retribution and because so many across the world have yet to receive the vaccine: It is time to move on from the emergency phase of the pandemic. Focus should go to shoring up billions of dollars in funding so that governments and global-health organizations can engage in massive efforts to prepare for the next pandemic, they said…. Health advocates and officials leading the race to vaccinate the world have long feared the money they secured would disappear as soon as wealthy countries vaccinated the majority of their populations. Now, they see those dollars potentially flowing to preparedness rather than efforts to end the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Think Global Health ([link removed]) (US) reports on “zero COVID” countries that are now beginning to lift restrictions that had kept COVID rates relatively low. “The countries that have shifted their COVID strategies from elimination to containment all embraced vaccination as part of their new action plans. If China, Tonga, and other nations were to transition away from the zero-COVID approach, the availability and rapid rollout of mRNA booster shots become vital before omicron spreads widely. Modeling from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington projects that third vaccine doses in China can save upward of 16,000 lives by June 1.”



** Six Million Confirmed Deaths and Counting
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The Washington Post ([link removed]) (US) reports, “Worldwide deaths from COVID-19 surpassed 6 million on Monday, a grim reminder of the coronavirus’s lethality as many countries relax mask-wearing and vaccination requirements. Even as vaccination rates rose in parts of the world, the daily average of COVID deaths stood at 9,000 during the past 28 days, according to data from Johns Hopkins University…. ‘The idea we would get to 6 million is really inconceivable when I think back to two years ago,’ said Mitchell Warren, executive director of AVAC, an HIV prevention organization that also advocates for global coronavirus vaccine equity. ‘Everything that has happened in the last 12 months, though, is a marker of our inability of translating the remarkable scientific progress, the remarkable product development into impact.’”

The Economist ([link removed]) (UK) reports on “excess deaths” that may provide a truer picture of the impact of COVID. “Although the official number of deaths caused by COVID-19 is now 6m, our single best estimate is that the actual toll is 19.9m people. We find that there is a 95 percent chance that the true value lies between 14.1m and 23.6m additional deaths.”

In a Bhekisisa podcast ([link removed]) (South Africa) Mia Malan talks with Professor Salim Abdool Karim about the next phase of the pandemic and the possible end. Prof Karim says the Omicrom wave has ended in South Africa and the country is in a “honeymoon period…but we can expect the country will get another wave…” Karim lays out what could be next with vaccines, including pan corona vaccines that will have a much broader immune response.

Nature ([link removed]) (UK) reports, “For the handful of places around the world that effectively stopped COVID-19 transmission, vaccine complacency has become an unintended side effect of their success. Although some regions have managed to blunt transmission of the highly infectious Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, others are experiencing considerable outbreaks in populations with low vaccination rates. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Hong Kong. Its ‘dynamic zero COVID-19’ policy is being put to the test as daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 climbed to 56,000 this week and deaths reached 246 on 1 March.”

The Washington Post ([link removed]) (US) reports, “More than 140 million Americans have had the coronavirus, according to estimates from blood tests that reveal antibodies from infection—about double the rate regularly cited by national case counts. The estimates, compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, show that about 43 percent of the country has been infected by the virus. The study shows that the majority of children have also been infected.”

The Hill ([link removed]) (US) reports, “China on Monday recorded the highest single day tally of infections since the outbreak in Wuhan at the beginning of the global pandemic. The country reported 526 cases, including 312 asymptomatic patients, according to Bloomberg…. China has continued to deploy its zero-tolerance protocols, which include widespread testing and intensive lockdowns, strict policies that the country has used to keep infection rates low throughout the pandemic.”



** Vaccine Access and Rollout
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The Alliance for Science (The%20COVID-19%20pandemic%20also%20has%20exposed%20Africa’s%20vulnerabilities%20in%20ensuring%20access%20to%20vital%20drugs,%20vaccines%20and%20health%20technologies,%20contributing%20to%20vaccine%20inequity%20and%20hesitancy%20among%20a%20cross-section%20of%20the%20population.%20%20A%20joint%20study%20conducted%20by%20the%20Academy%20of%20Science%20of%20South%20Africa%20(ASSAf)%20and%20the%20Uganda%20National%20Academy%20of%20Sciences%20(UNAS)%20identified%20lack%20of%20information%20and%20misinformation,%20mistrust%20in%20healthcare%20systems,%20inconvenience%20and%20various%20political%20variables%20as%20the%20root%20causes%20of%20hesitancy.) (US) reports, “The COVID-19 pandemic also has exposed ([link removed]) Africa’s vulnerabilities in ensuring access to vital drugs, vaccines and health technologies, contributing to vaccine inequity and hesitancy among a
cross-section of the population. A joint study ([link removed]) conducted by the Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf) and the Uganda National Academy of Sciences (UNAS) identified lack of information and misinformation, mistrust in healthcare systems, inconvenience and various political variables as the root causes of hesitancy.”

Capitol FM ([link removed]) (Kenya) reports, “Moderna has signed an agreement with Kenya to set up its manufacturing plant in the country, the first in Africa. … President Uhuru Kenyatta said Kenya is ‘pleased to partner with Moderna in the establishment of this mRNA manufacturing facility to help prepare the country and our sister states on the continent through the African Union to respond to future health crises and stave off the next pandemic.’”

Reuters ([link removed]) (UK) reports, “About 100,000 doses of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine are at risk of being destroyed by the end of this month due to slow uptake by citizens, South African health authorities said on Friday…. ‘There is a risk that just over 100,000 or so doses which will expire by end of March...may have to be discarded. It will be a sad day if significant volumes of doses can end up being discarded. We hope it will not reach that stage,’ Health Minister Joe Phaahla told an online news conference.”

UN News ([link removed]) reports, “Germany has become the first country to answer a call for wealthy nations to contribute their “fair share” towards ending the COVID-19 pandemic…. The country has committed to provide $1.22 billion to support the ACT-Accelerator, the global partnership for equitable access to tests, treatments, vaccines, and personal protective equipment (PPE).”

Devi Discourse ([link removed]) (India) reports the US NIH “will offer several technologies to the COVID-19 Technology Access Pool (C-TAP) for potential licensing through [the Medicines Patent Pool]. WHO’s Tedros is quoted: “Voluntary sharing of technologies through non-exclusive agreements will not only help us put the pandemic behind us; it will also empower low- and middle-income countries to produce their own medical products and achieve equitable access."

The Times ([link removed]) (Malawi) reports that in the country, “J&J is now a two-dose vaccine.” Additionally, Malawi is beginning to roll out booster doses of the two-dose AstraZenenca and Pfizer vaccines.



** Research for New COVID Drugs
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Nature ([link removed]) (UK) reports, “Two years into the pandemic, the COVID-19 drugs pipeline is primed to pump out novel treatments—and fresh uses for familiar therapies…. Researchers have developed a handful of options—including two oral antiviral drugs, Paxlovid and molnupiravir, authorized in some countries in the past couple of months—that help in certain situations. But gaps remain, and researchers think that this year will bring new drugs and new uses for older drugs, including better treatments for mild COVID-19.”



** Next Generation Vaccines
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Medscape ([link removed]) (US) reports, “efforts are ramping up to develop next-generation vaccines that can protect against future novel coronaviruses and variants. Several projects are presenting clever combinations of viral parts to the immune system that evoke a robust and hopefully lasting response. The coming generation of ‘pan’ vaccines aims to tamp down SARS-CoV-2, its closest relatives, and whatever may come, into tamer respiratory viruses like the common cold. Whatever the eventual components of this new generation of vaccines, experts agree on the goal: preventing severe disease and death. And a broader approach is critical."



** Long COVID
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Aidsmap ([link removed]) (UK) reports, “Unvaccinated people with HIV were four times more likely than HIV-negative people to experience ‘long COVID’ symptoms after acute COVID-19 illness and these symptoms were associated with higher levels of inflammatory markers, a small [preprint] study conducted by HIV researchers at University of California San Francisco has found…. Looking at the relationship between HIV status, the presence of COVID-19 symptoms and immunological markers, the researchers found that people with HIV were four times more likely to have long COVID symptoms. When long COVID was defined as three or more symptoms, people with HIV were 2.72 times more likely to report it.”

Reuters ([link removed]) (UK) reports, “Almost a third of people report at least one ongoing symptom between 6 and 12 months after their coronavirus infection, a survey of 152,000 people in Denmark has found…. The questionnaire-based study suggested that the most commonly reported long-term symptoms were changes in sense of smell and taste, as well as fatigue.”

The Guardian ([link removed]) (UK) reports, “More than a third of working-age people in the UK now suffer from a long-term illness, with new figures showing a dramatic rise since the pandemic began. Post-COVID conditions, including long COVID, breathing difficulties and mental-health problems, are among the causes, according to disability charities and health campaigners.”

Bloomberg ([link removed]) (US) reports, “Even a mild case of COVID-19 can damage the brain and addle thinking, scientists found in a study that highlights the illness’s alarming impact on mental function. Researchers identified COVID-associated brain damage months after infection, including in the region linked to smell, and shrinkage in size equivalent to as much as a decade of normal aging. The changes were linked to cognitive decline in the study, which was published Monday in the journal Nature.”

For more on long COVID check out this discussion ([link removed]) among researchers and advocates about long COVID, including the latest research presented at CROI2022 and this explainer and research roundup ([link removed]) from Harvard’s Shorenstein Center.



** Racial Disparities Persist and Worsen in the US
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Reuters ([link removed]) (UK) reports, “Racial disparities further widened with Omicron, the researchers reported on medRxiv ahead of peer review. During the Delta period, the infection rate in Black patients was 1.3 to 1.4 times higher than for white patients. With Omicron, it jumped to 3 to 4 times higher. The Delta infection rate of 1.6 to 1.8 times higher in Hispanics versus non-Hispanics grew to 3 times higher with Omicron.”



** COVID and Politics
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AP ([link removed]) (US) reports, “Florida Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo said Monday that the state will formally recommend against COVID-19 vaccinations for healthy children. Ladapo made the announcement at a roundtable event organized by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis that featured a group of doctors who criticized coronavirus lockdowns and mandate policies. It was not immediately clear when the state would release its health guidance…. Late last month, Ladapo and DeSantis announced new policy recommendations that discouraged mask-wearing and directed physicians to exercise their own judgment when treating virus patients, including the use of emerging treatments and off-label medications.”



** Pinpointing Who Gets Severe COVID
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Reuters ([link removed]) (UK) reports, “Scientists have pinpointed 16 new genetic variants in people who developed severe COVID-19 in a large study published on Monday that could help researchers develop treatments for very sick patients. The results suggest that people with severe COVID have genes that predispose them to one of two problems: failure to limit the ability of the virus to make copies of itself, or excessive inflammation and blood clotting.” The research could help find effective treatments and even help determine who is at risk for severe disease.



** COVID and Animals
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Medscape ([link removed]) (US) reports, “Scientists have found the coronavirus in 29 kinds of animals, including household pets, livestock, and wildlife, according to researchers’ latest tally. In most cases, humans infect animals, and animals don’t transmit the virus back to humans. But scientists have expressed concerns about recent research that shows some animals—such as mink and deer—appear to be able to spread the virus to humans. In addition, the virus will likely continue to circulate in wild animals, which could lead to new mutations, some of which may make the virus less susceptible to people’s immunity from current vaccines.”



** COVID and Mental Health
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WHO ([link removed]) says, “In the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, global prevalence of anxiety and depression increased by a massive 25 percent.... The brief, which is informed by a comprehensive review of existing evidence about the impact of COVID-19 on mental health and mental health services, and includes estimates from the latest Global Burden of Disease study, shows that the pandemic has affected the mental health of young people and that they are disproportionally at risk of suicidal and self-harming behaviours. It also indicates that women have been more severely impacted than men and that people with pre-existing physical health conditions, such as asthma, cancer and heart disease, were more likely to develop symptoms of mental disorders.”



** Testing
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Nature ([link removed]) (UK) reports, “A large-scale testing campaign in Canadian workplaces shows that the regular use of rapid antigen tests is highly effective at ferreting out asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections…. From January 2021 to June 2021, nearly 322,000 rapid tests were conducted at 73 workplaces. Testing yielded 604 positives; 473 of those were confirmed by PCR to be true positives. Only about one in 4,300 rapid-test results was confirmed by PCR as a false positive, which the authors note was not enough to disrupt workplace operations.”

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