Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
March 9, 2022
Top of the Agenda
U.S., UK to Ban Russian Oil Imports as Putin Vows to Restrict Commodity Exports
The United States will stop importing (FT) Russian oil and gas and the United Kingdom (UK) will phase out Russian oil imports by the end of the year as part of efforts to punish Russia for invading Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a vague decree saying he will restrict some commodity exports. U.S. lawmakers reached a bipartisan deal last night to provide $13.6 billion (AP) to help Ukraine and European allies.
 
As Russia’s bombardment of Ukrainian cities continues, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told ABC News he had “cooled down” on his demand (AFP) that Ukraine try to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and said he is open to “compromise” on the status of Ukraine’s pro-Russia separatist territories. Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson also said her country would not try to join NATO (FT) “in the current situation” because doing so would destabilize the security of Europe.
Analysis
“Because Americans are unused to self-sacrifice in the cause of foreign policy, domestic politics will become tricky, too. Despite encouraging the import ban on Russian oil, Republicans will have little hesitation in savaging the president and his party for high gas prices (and general inflation) in the mid-term elections to be held in eight months’ time,” the Economist writes.
 
“The United States should be especially attuned to the risks of escalation as the next phase of conflict begins, and should double down on finding ways to end the conflict in Ukraine when a window of opportunity presents itself. This may involve difficult and unpleasant choices,” the Atlantic Council’s Emma Ashford and Boston University’s Joshua Shifrinson write for Foreign Affairs.
 
Check out CFR’s analysis, explainers, podcasts, and more on the war in Ukraine.

Pacific Rim
Exit Polls Show Close Race for South Korean Presidential Election
The election is still too close to call as exit polls show that Lee Jae-myung of the governing Democratic Party and Yoon Suk-yeol of the opposition People Power Party are neck and neck (Nikkei).
 
CFR’s Scott A. Snyder lays out what to know about South Korea’s presidential election.
 
China: In a call with European leaders, Chinese President Xi Jinping said China is willing to help mediate (CNN) the war in Ukraine but reiterated his opposition to sanctions against Russia.
 
For the Asia Unbound blog, CFR’s Zoe Jordan examines how China squares its noninterference circle.

South and Central Asia
Suicide Bombing in Southwestern Pakistan Kills Five Security Personnel
The blast in Pakistan’s Balochistan Province took place (PTI) while President Arif Alvi was visiting the area.
 
Bangladesh: A fire at a Rohingya refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar killed a child (Reuters) and left around two thousand people homeless.

Middle East and North Africa
Israeli, Turkish Presidents Meet in Ankara
It is the first official visit (Al Jazeera) by an Israeli leader to Turkey since 2008. Israeli President Isaac Herzog and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are expected to discuss the possibility of Turkey using Israeli natural gas.
 
Saudi Arabia/United Arab Emirates/U.S.: The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan both declined calls with U.S. President Joe Biden, who was seeking to build support for Ukraine and limit rising oil prices.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Son of Uganda’s Museveni Leaves Military, Could Be Preparing for Presidential Bid
Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the son of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, announced his retirement (Reuters). Many observers see the move as Kainerugaba preparing to run in the 2026 presidential election.
 
Nigeria: After attempts to reach a settlement failed, the United States will resume a lawsuit (Bloomberg) that aims to confiscate $150 million allegedly laundered by a member of Nigeria’s ruling party.

Europe
U.S. Rejects Plan to Send Polish Fighter Jets to Ukraine
Under the Polish government’s plan, Ukraine would receive Poland’s used jets and the United States would give Poland jets with comparable abilities. A Pentagon spokesperson said the plan (Axios) “raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance.”
 
CFR’s Thomas Graham explains how to prevent the war in Ukraine from escalating into a wider European conflict.

Americas
Venezuela Frees Two Detained Americans
The Venezuelan government released the oil executives (AP) after a U.S. delegation held low-profile talks in Venezuela. The United States is seeking to improve ties with the petrostate as global gas prices surge due to the war in Ukraine. 

Guatemala: The legislature approved a bill that would punish abortion (AFP) with a prison sentence of up to ten years and ban same-sex marriage and classroom education on sexual diversity. The bill would become law after President Alejandro Giammattei signs it.

United States
Report: U.S. Lags on Global COVID-19 Vaccine Donations
The United States would need to donate (NYT) 70 million COVID-19 vaccine doses per month to reach its target of 1.2 billion doses delivered internationally by this fall, according to watchdog group Public Citizen. Current monthly donations total about 55 million doses.
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