A frequently asked question about National Popular Vote is whether heavily populated metropolitan areas would be favored over rural areas in a nationwide popular vote for President.

In a nationwide election for President, every vote would be equal, and the winner would be the candidate receiving the most popular votes.

This is exactly how elections are run today inside the dozen or so battleground states where candidates currently campaign.

If there were any tendency for candidates to overemphasize big cities or ignore rural areas, we would see evidence of that in the way campaigns are conducted today inside the battleground states.

 

In the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections, the biggest metro areas of the battleground states actually received a combined total of 191 general-election campaign visits—compared to 188.2 visits, if visits had been based strictly on population. 

In other words, actual candidates—advised by the nation’s most astute political strategists—hew closely to population when allocating campaign visits within battleground states. Indeed, they do so with near-surgical precision. There is certainly no evidence that big metro areas exert any magnetic or intoxicating attraction causing candidates to concentrate disproportionately on heavily populated metropolitan areas or ignore rural areas.  

Moreover, the areas outside each state’s biggest metro area received 427 visits—compared to 429.8 visits, if visits had been based strictly on population. 

Candidates campaign this way because every vote is equal inside each battleground state, and because the candidate receiving the most popular votes inside each battleground state wins everything.

The number of general-election campaign visits in 2016 was 399 -- coincidentally very close to the 435 congressional districts in the country. Based on the fact that candidates hew closely to population when campaigning, the likely number of visits that a state would receive in a nationwide election for President would be approximately equal to the state’s number of congressional districts. Every state would receive some attention in a nationwide campaign for President—that is, there would be a 50-state campaign for President. Almost every congressional district in the country would receive some attention. It would no longer be the case that virtually all campaign visits would be concentrated in a dozen closely divided battleground states.

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The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.