Plus, oil prices crush airlines as jet fuel prices spike, a state surgeon general advises against vaccines for healthy children, and more. Email not displaying correctly?
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** US gasoline prices hit an all-time high
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The price board at a gas station is shown next to a California Street sign in San Francisco, Monday, March 7, 2022. The price of regular gasoline broke $4 per gallon (3.8 liters) on average across the U.S. on Sunday for the first time since 2008. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

In the last seven days, the average gasoline price in the United States has risen a mind-boggling 41 cents per gallon to reach $4.10 per gallon, the highest level ever. Sunday alone saw the average price rise 16 cents per gallon. You have to go back to the days of Hurricane Katrina to find a similar one-day rise of 18 cents per gallon.

Diesel prices set an all-time one-day price increase Sunday at more than 22 cents per gallon, breaking the 2003 one-day increase record. Gas Buddy compiled the previous milestones ([link removed]) :

* June 8, 2008: $4/gal is seen for the first time
* July 17, 2008: All-time record high is set at $4.103 per gallon
* May 12, 2021: $3/gal average seen for the first time since 2014

You never know what to make of the futures traders bet on but some say ([link removed]) oil could trade for as much as $180 a barrel and even $200 a barrel if the war in Ukraine rages on for months.


** Oil prices crush airlines, jet fuel prices spike
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Airlines are still emerging from the pandemic interruption and have now been smacked with a stunning rise in jet fuel prices ([link removed]) . Jet fuel prices have risen more than 50% already this year and are still rising. Fuel accounts for 40% to 50% of air operating costs ([link removed]) of a single flight, depending on the type of plane used.

Airlines used to protect themselves against rapid fuel price increases by fuel hedging, meaning they would lock in prices by entering into contracts for fuel. CNBC explains why that ended ([link removed]) :

It could take months before travelers feel the fuel price in tickets. Cowen & Co. airline analyst Helane Becker sees a roughly four-month delay before fares catch up.

“As a result, it is likely the next few months will be financially concerning, even though traffic is strong,” she said in a note Friday.

Some large U.S. airlines like American abandonedfuel hedging ([link removed]) after oil prices peaked and then crumbled in 2014. The fuel-price slump drove a decade of U.S. airline profits that was eventually upended by the coronavirus in 2020.

“It’s not something we’re considering at this time,” American spokesman Matt Miller said about hedging.

United and Delta, which owns a refinery, didn’t immediately comment.

There are four major types of jet fuel.
* Jet A: This is the most widely used grade of jet fuel, used widely in the United States and Canada
* Jet A1: This is used in other parts of the world in addition to Jet A. Jet A1 is more likely to be used in artic flights and fights where the air is colder.
* Jet B: This fuel is used in the most frigid conditions, for polar flights and for military aircraft. Some military aircraft have specific fuels, such as JP-7 and JP-8.
* TS-1: This fuel is used by Russian and former Soviet countries.

Based on the recent spike in oil prices, jet fuel will likely rise ([link removed]) to at least $3.45 per gallon — up from $2.3 per gallon at the end of 2021.

A fully loaded jumbo Jet (Boeing 747-400) flying from London to New York burns about 82,300 liters or 21,741 gallons of fuel.


** State surgeon general advises against vaccines for healthy children
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Florida Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo gestures as speaks to supporters and members of the media before a bill signing by Gov. Ron DeSantis Thursday, Nov. 18, 2021, in Brandon, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

Florida’s new surgeon general is the first in the country to tell healthy children not to take the COVID-19 vaccine that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ([link removed]) and the American Academy of Pediatrics strongly recommend.

Dr. Joseph Ladapo cites studies ([link removed]) that show the vaccine loses efficacy among children. He said, “We’re kind of scraping at the bottom of the barrel, particularly with healthy kids, in terms of actually being able to quantify with any accuracy and any confidence the even potential of benefit.”

Ladapo is a bit of an anomaly in the medical world. He opposed mask mandates ([link removed]) , won’t say if he is vaccinated and has openly questioned whether vaccines were effective in preventing hospitalizations and deaths.

Last week ([link removed]) , Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Ladapo’s boss, scolded university students for wearing masks at an event he was speaking at, even though they were complying with CDC guidelines.


** What is the strength of the US military?
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The war in Ukraine pushed me to do a little inventory of the strength and health of the U.S. military. Here are some data points that give at least a top-line look.

The total military population has been about steady for the last decade.
[link removed]
(USA Facts)

I wondered where the U.S. military is currently deployed. These figures have changed a little since the Russian buildup near Ukraine began. The gray number is 2011 and the red dot is last year.
[link removed]
(USA Facts)

Every year, the Heritage Foundation, a research and educational institution whose mission is to build and promote conservative public policies, does a global assessment of U.S. military strength. This is the latest, published in January:
[link removed]
(Heritage Foundation)

Heritage assesses each branch of the military. Here are Heritage’s assessments, edited for length and clarity. Go here to read the complete report ([link removed]) .

Army ([link removed]) as “Marginal.” The Army is aging faster than it is modernizing. It remains “weak” in capacity with only 62 percent of the force it should have. However, 58 percent (18) of its 31 Regular Army BCTs are at the highest state of readiness, thus earning a score of “very strong” and conveying the sense that the service knows what it needs to do to prepare for the next major conflict.

Navy ([link removed]) as “Marginal,” Trending Toward “Weak.” The Navy’s current battle force fleet of 296 ships and intensified operational tempo combine to reveal a service that is much too small relative to its tasks, resulting in a capacity score of “weak,” which is unchanged from the 2021 Index. It desperately needs a larger fleet of 400 ships.

Air Force ([link removed]) as “Weak.” Though the Air Force possesses 86 percent of the combat aircraft that this Index recommends, public reporting of the mission readiness and physical location of these planes would make it difficult for the Air Force to respond rapidly to a crisis. Modernization programs are generally healthy, but the advanced age of key aircraft in the Air Force’s inventory is driving the service to retire planes faster than they can be replaced.

Marine Corps ([link removed]) as “Strong.” The score for the Marine Corps was raised to “strong.” However, in the absence of additional funding in FY 2022, the Corps intends to reduce the number of its battalions even further from 24 to 21, and this reduction, if implemented, would harm the Corps’ overall ability to perform the role it has set for itself: enabling the projection of naval power into heavily contested combat environments. The service has moved ahead aggressively with a redesign of its operating forces and the acquisition of new warfighting tools, but it remains hampered by old equipment and problematic funding.

Space Force ([link removed]) as “Weak.” The service has done quite well in transitioning missions from the other services without interruption in support, but it does not have enough assets to track and manage the explosive growth in commercial and competitor-country systems being placed into orbit. The majority of its platforms have exceeded their planned life span, and modernization efforts to replace them are slow and incremental. The force also lacks defensive and offensive counter-space capabilities.

Nuclear Capability ([link removed]) as “Strong” but Trending Toward “Marginal” or even “Weak.” This score of “strong” with a conditional trend toward “marginal” or “weak” reflects a greater risk of a degradation in nuclear deterrence than has been seen in the recent past. Current forces are assessed as reliable today, but nearly all components of the nuclear enterprise are at a tipping point with respect to replacement or modernization and have no margin left for delays in schedule.

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