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In this mailing:
* Richard Kemp: A Plan for Peace in Europe
* Amir Taheri: Putin and the Law of Unintended Consequences


** A Plan for Peace in Europe ([link removed])
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by Richard Kemp • March 6, 2022 at 5:00 am
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neinstitute.org/18305/peace-plan-europe#print
* [Putin] is now also demanding the nuclear disarming of Europe.
* Putin's next targets could be Moldova or the Baltic states which, like Ukraine, he reportedly considers illegitimate and properly part of Russia's sphere. If further suffering and bloodshed are to be avoided, the West must do all it can to ensure his current aggression fails.
* To halt Putin's broader ambitions, it is also essential that NATO keep the Ukrainian army fighting and that includes financing the war effort and getting lethal weapons and military equipment to Ukrainian forces.
* Russia must be isolated and turned into an international pariah not just while Putin's army is assaulting Ukraine but for as long as necessary. These actions will inflict damage on us as well, as Russia retaliates with its own sanctions and restrictions. The short term pain can be ameliorated in the medium term by eliminating dependence on Russian energy, increasing gas supplies from North Africa, the Adriatic and the Mediterranean. Also by reopening in the United States the world's largest supply of energy, which President Joe Biden began closing down his first day in office, and by fracking and building nuclear power plants.
* The development of our cyber defences, as well as offensive capabilities must be accelerated urgently and intelligence services expanded to counter and inflict severe damage to Russian espionage agencies.
* Some argue that punitive Western moves will drive Russia into China's arms. It is already there: Russia is the biggest single recipient of Chinese financial support globally, and Putin and Xi have established a military alliance.
* Where Putin demands that NATO pull back, it should push forward. Some may see this as provocative, but it is in fact a sign of strength which will do more to deter Putin than appeasing him.
* [Putin] knows that NATO poses no military threat to Russia and that it is a purely defensive alliance. If it is to restore the credibility it once had, which Biden's Afghanistan debacle did much to undermine, NATO must regain its strength — not only in military power but also the demonstrable political will to use it.
* As Israel often reminds us over Iran, if a leader threatens us with annihilation we cannot afford to hope he is not serious. Had the world focused on getting rid of Hitler in the 1930s rather than appeasing him, we may not have seen the horror of a global war that killed 70 million people.
* The urgency of a Western message of strength goes even beyond Russia. China's President Xi has greater territorial ambitions than Putin, and they are being played out today in every continent around the world. Xi's Ukraine is Taiwan, and it may be that visiting catastrophe on Russia's dictator will deter his friend in Beijing.

Putin's next targets could be Moldova or the Baltic states which, like Ukraine, he reportedly considers illegitimate and properly part of Russia's sphere. If further suffering and bloodshed are to be avoided, the West must do all it can to ensure his current aggression fails. (Photo by Alexey Nikolsky/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)

NATO's strategic objective should now be to bring down Russian President Vladimir Putin and see him replaced by a less dangerous leader. If he fails, harsh constraints are imposed on Russian oligarchs, and suffering is inflicted on ordinary citizens by Western diplomatic and economic action; his current adventure might cause him to self-destruct.

If that does not happen, Putin will remain a permanent threat to NATO, Europe and the world. Russian law now allows him to hold onto power at least until 2036. He apparently aims to re-create the Soviet Union in a new form and restore Russia's superpower status by pushing NATO back, regaining Moscow's dominion over its eastern neighbours. He is now also demanding the nuclear disarming of Europe.

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** Putin and the Law of Unintended Consequences ([link removed])
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by Amir Taheri • March 6, 2022 at 4:00 am
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tute.org%2F18304%2Fputin-unintended-consequences&pubid=ra-52f7af5809191749&ct=1&title=Putin+and+the+Law+of+Unintended+Consequences [link removed]
* The most striking illustration of this so far is the debunking of Putin's brazen claim that there is not and has never been a Ukrainian nation and that Ukraine is nothing but Russia misspelled. Putin insisted that Ukraine was nothing but a creation of Lenin, ignoring the fact that it was Lenin who signed away Ukraine to the Germans in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.
* Ukrainians have suddenly realized that looking east towards Russia means suffering invasion and colonization, while looking west towards Europe could mean freedom and prosperity... Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was reflecting his people's wishes when he asked for immediate membership in the European Union.
* The current crisis, however, showed that the Europeans can take the lead in being much tougher than the Americans under the risk-averse Joe Biden.
* For 20 years, the Putin wolf played grandmother in disguise. That disguise enabled him to get away with invading Georgia, dominating Belarus, massacring Syrians, propelling the mullahs of Tehran, annexing Crimea, taking joyrides in various parts of Africa, poisoning people in Europe, and trying to disrupt elections in several countries through cyber-attacks. All that time, almost a quarter of his income came from oil and gas sales to Western democracies -- oil and gas produced thanks to Western capital, technology, management and marketing.

Ukrainians have suddenly realized that looking east towards Russia means suffering invasion and colonization, while looking west towards Europe could mean freedom and prosperity. There were no lines of Ukrainians seeking asylum in Russia or Belarus; the long queues were at the Polish and Romanian borders. Pictured: Refugees from Ukraine line up to enter Poland at the Medyka border crossing on February 28, 2022. (Photo by Wojtek Radwanski/AFP via Getty Images)

As Russian President Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine enters its third week, the naughty little law of unintended consequences is lifting its head above the parapet.

The most striking illustration of this so far is the debunking of Putin's brazen claim that there is not and has never been a Ukrainian nation and that Ukraine is nothing but Russia misspelled. Putin insisted that Ukraine was nothing but a creation of Lenin, ignoring the fact that it was Lenin who signed away Ukraine to the Germans in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.

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