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**MARCH 4, 2022**
Kuttner on TAP
It's an Ill War That Blows No Good
****
Could this one have some positive outcomes (assuming we all don't get
incinerated)?
Russia's war on Ukraine upends the entire post-1989 world order. It
brings us closer to nuclear conflagration, worsens the inflationary
cycle, and reverts the world to East-West standoff. But for those
inclined to look on the hopeful side, there could actually be some
beneficial side effects.
Vladimir Putin. The most immediate is the damage to Putin's standing
at home and the possibility of his ouster. Conversely, President Biden
has gotten a big bounce in his approval
ratings for his leadership in the crisis.
Globalization. The supply chain fiasco was one nail in the coffin of
naïve globalization. The need to extricate Western banks and
corporations from the Russian orbit is a second. National self-reliance
is looking better and better again.
National Economic Planning. The flipside of ending corporate-led
globalization. The U.S. needs to decide what we have to make
domestically.
Patriotic Corporations. Before this war, banks and multinationals were
telling national governments that extricating themselves from foreign
commitments based on unacceptable behavior by the trading partner was
either an impossibility or would take years. Now, everyone from Apple to
Boeing is doing it in a matter of days.
More Transparent Capitalism. To isolate Russia's economy, the Treasury
found powers it wasn't sure it had and was reluctant to use. There are
plenty of kleptocrats right here in the USA. Having set this precedent,
democratic governments can go after corrupt capitalists everywhere.
Smoking Out Oligarchs. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, of all
people, has introduced legislation that will require all property owners
to be identified as people, no longer hiding their identity behind
trusts or straws. That could become the international norm.
**Controlling Crypto.** One worry is that Putin will be able to evade
financial controls by using cryptocurrencies. This strengthens the hands
of the regulatory hawks and weakens the crypto enthusiasts in the
administration.
Energy Transition. The spike in oil prices, the shortage of crude oil,
the realization that OPEC won't come to our rescue must accelerate the
transition to renewable energy. It's no longer just a contentious
matter of addressing climate change, but of energy security.
Democracy Versus Autocracy. Putin, as the arch thug, makes autocrats and
kleptocrats everywhere look bad, from Syria to Saudi Arabia to Hungary
to Mar-a-Lago. The Ukrainian resistance inspires other resisters. It
rallies the world citizenry to the defense of democracy.
Trump and Putin. These two are joined at the hip. All those clips of
Trump lionizing Putin, as recently as his praise for the Ukrainian
invasion, in real estate terms no less, will be played over and over in
the 2022 campaign.
None of this is to make light of the horrible suffering of the Ukrainian
people, or the risks of a wider catastrophe. But you just never know
what transformations will be wrought by a war.
World War II turned out pretty well for the U.S., social justice, and
the democratic West. Maybe we will get lucky again this time.
****
~ ROBERT KUTTNER
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**Robert Kuttner's latest book is**
The Stakes: 2020 and the Survival of American Democracy
.
[link removed]
[link removed] War
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Relying on authoritarian states for fuel supplies turns out to be a
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[link removed] The
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[link removed] My
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ERIC ALTERMAN
[link removed]
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