Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
March 3, 2022
Top of the Agenda
One Million Refugees Flee Ukraine, Russia Takes First Major City
One million people fled Ukraine (WaPo) during the war’s first seven days in what could become Europe’s largest refugee crisis this century, the UN refugee agency said. Russian forces took control of Kherson (FT), a major city in Ukraine’s south, and have stepped up bombardment of Kyiv, the capital, and the southeastern port city of Mariupol.
 
Mariupol’s mayor said the city is experiencing “a humanitarian catastrophe,” including heavy shelling and cutoffs of heat, electricity, and water. Yesterday, 141 of the 193 member countries of the UN General Assembly backed a resolution (DW, AFP) demanding that Russia cease its use of force in Ukraine. Only five members, including Russia, voted against it. A second round of talks between Russian and Ukrainian envoys is set to be held today (Al Jazeera).
Analysis
“Despite the upgrading of the Ukrainian army, better training and eight years of war experience, it is to be feared that Ukraine will not be able to withstand the pressure of the Russian army for long,” the German Institute for International and Security Affairs’ André Härtel writes.
 
“A long war and a difficult occupation of Ukraine could drain public support for the Kremlin. Russian public opinion has long been sensitive to casualties,” Columbia University’s Timothy Frye writes for Foreign Affairs.
Home and Abroad Public Forum: U.S.-Russia Relations
Join CFR President Richard Haass, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs’ Ivo H. Daalder, the Brookings Institution’s Fiona Hill, and Johns Hopkins University’s Mary Elise Sarotte for a virtual forum on U.S.-Russia relations, today at 3:30 p.m. (EST).

Pacific Rim
Two South Korean Presidential Candidates Join Forces
Opposition party candidate Yoon Suk-yeol agreed to withdraw from the upcoming election (Reuters) and endorse centrist Ahn Cheol-soo, who was polling in third place. Yoon had been neck and neck in polls with Lee Jae-myung of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea. 
 
CFR’s Scott A. Snyder lays out what to know about South Korea’s presidential election.
 
Philippines: President Rodrigo Duterte signed an executive order committing the country to develop a nuclear power program (Philippine Star) to diversify its energy sources away from coal.

South and Central Asia
Quad Holds Virtual Meeting
The leaders of the United States, Australia, India, and Japan, which form the so-called Quad, will meet virtually today (Hindustan Times). Yesterday, the United States called on India to distance itself from Russia over the war in Ukraine, Reuters reported.
 
For Foreign Affairs, CFR’s Manjari Chatterjee Miller argues that India should rethink its Russia policy.
 
Bangladesh: A Bangladeshi engineer died when a rocket attack hit a Bangladeshi ship (Dhaka Tribune) stranded at a port in Ukraine.

Middle East and North Africa
Unidentified Gunmen Seize Two Ministers in Incoming Libyan Government
The incoming foreign and culture ministers were abducted (Bloomberg) while traveling to their swearing-in. Incoming Prime Minister Fathi Bashagha said the ceremony will go on. Incumbent Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah has refused to cede power (Al Jazeera).
 
Iran: The director of the UN nuclear watchdog will travel to Tehran (Reuters) on Saturday amid final negotiations about a potential return to the 2015 nuclear deal.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Nairobi Meeting Kicks Off Negotiation of Global Plastics Treaty
At the meeting of the UN Environment Assembly in Nairobi, Kenya, member states agreed to start talks (BBC) on drawing up a treaty on the production, use, and disposal of plastics.
 
Nigeria: Protesters outside the country’s parliament denounced the rejection (Al Jazeera) of five bills that would have expanded women’s rights. The bills would have introduced gender quotas in the legislature and in leadership of political parties, among other changes.

Europe
EU Expects Membership Applications From Georgia, Moldova
The European Union (EU) is “imminently” expecting membership applications (WaPo) from the two countries, a senior official said. While some European Parliament members expressed interest in admitting Ukraine, which also submitted an application this week, leaders have signaled that there are disagreements within the bloc.

Americas
Argentine Congress to Weigh Draft Debt Deal
The draft deal set to be introduced in Congress (MercoPress) would restructure Argentina’s more than $40 billion owed to the International Monetary Fund.
 
This Backgrounder looks at Argentina’s economic struggles.
 
Honduras: To fight corruption, the legislature repealed a law (AFP) that classified public documents allegedly related to national security. It had been used in the past to hide improper use of public funds.

United States
Justice Department Announces Task Force to Target Russian Oligarchs
It will target individuals (NYT) who have aided Russian President Vladimir Putin in the invasion of Ukraine and who seek to avoid newly announced sanctions.
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