Dear, John
Even as the world’s attention is focused on Russia’s horrific invasion of Ukraine, diplomats in Vienna continue to inch toward a breakthrough on the Iran nuclear agreement. A final deal may be on the table, with a breakthrough in as little as a few days.
The State of Play
This week began with lead Iranian negotiator, Ali Bagheri, holding numerous meetings with the remaining participants in the deal. Bagheri’s recent trip to Tehran had increased speculation that he might be seeking final approval [[link removed]] for a deal on the table.
However, no agreement between the U.S. and Iran comes easily, and gaps appear to remain between the parties on an IAEA probe into past nuclear activities, the precise scope of sanctions relief and the fate of imprisoned dual nationals in Iran. The U.S. and Europe may also use an upcoming IAEA Board of Governors meeting next week as a deadline for the negotiations, and may double down on pressure if no agreement is forthcoming.
Regardless, a final deal still appears to be within reach. France’s lead negotiator on the nuclear file, Phillippe Errera, teased the final document in a tweet [[link removed]] showing just the top of a “Decision of the Joint Commission.” According to reports, the document on how the agreement is restored is roughly twenty pages and broken down into sections on sanctions lifting, nuclear steps and sequencing.
"However close we are to the finish line, there is no guarantee we will cross it,” said [[link removed]] Bagheri late last week from Tehran. Similarly, last week White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki offered as upbeat a statement as has been offered from the administration, stating [[link removed]] “substantial progress has been made over the last week or so, and is continuing to be made.”
Does a 2015 Congressional fight loom?
According to the Washington Post [[link removed]] , the deal may once again be headed to a full Congressional review under a U.S. law known as the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA). As a Congressional staffer told the Post, “Right now, there are enough changes in the draft deal that the administration is expected to declare that the new agreement is subject to INARA.”
Those who followed the 2015 debate over the nuclear deal may recall that Congress enacted a law setting forth a Congressional review period before any deal can enter into force. Under the law, known as INARA, the administration cannot lift or waive sanctions for 30 days after entering a new nuclear agreement with Iran. Congress can then consider resolutions to approve or disapprove of the agreement. If they pass a resolution of disapproval into law, sanctions relief is barred indefinitely and a nuclear agreement cannot enter into force. In 2015, opponents of the deal threw tens of millions of dollars into ads and lobby efforts, but failed to prevent the deal from entering into force despite Republican control of Congress. Now, opponents of the negotiations appear to be overemphasizing Russia’s role at the negotiating table as part of a play to slander the agreement.
It has been a topic of debate whether rejoining a deal that has already gone under INARA review would mandate a new review period. Regardless, NIAC is working with allies to ensure that - if there is a deal and a Congressional fight over the fate of the agreement - we will win, again.
One way we're doing that is by organizing a lobby week with our organizational partners during the week of March 14 to build up additional support for the JCPOA. You can join this effort by signing up here to join our meetings. [[link removed]] Join our lobby week [[link removed]]
Thank you, and we hope to be able to share some good news with you soon.
Sincerely,
Iran Deal Update
Policy Team, NIAC Action
* See our statement on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine here [[link removed]] , ICYMI
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