Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
March 1, 2022
Top of the Agenda
Russian Military Convoy Advances Toward Kyiv as Missile Strikes Central Kharkiv
Satellite imagery showed a forty-mile-long Russian military convoy advancing on Ukraine’s capital (RFE/RL), Kyiv, amid U.S. warnings that Russia could soon increase the aggressiveness (CNN) of its attack. Today, a Russian missile killed ten people in the center of Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, according to emergency responders. The United Nations said that more than 660,000 people have fled Ukraine (AFP) since the conflict began.
 
Talks between Russian and Ukrainian envoys yesterday were inconclusive and are set to resume in the coming days. Ukraine applied for European Union membership, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for support in an address to the European Parliament. Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court announced it will open an investigation into war crimes in Ukraine.
Analysis
“If Russia pushes on to occupy much of the country and install a Kremlin-appointed puppet regime in Kyiv, a more protracted and thorny conflagration will begin. [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will face a long, bloody insurgency that could spread across multiple borders,” former CIA senior operations officer Douglas London writes for Foreign Affairs.
 
“Russia is likely to face widespread condemnation and isolation in international bodies. Very few governments and law experts will believe that Russia’s actions are permissible under international law,” CFR’s John B. Bellinger III writes.

Pacific Rim
Death Toll in Northeastern Australia Floods Rises to Eleven
After days of heavy rains and flooding, Sydney is bracing (SMH) for a six-hour “rain bomb.”
 
U.S./Taiwan: A delegation of former U.S. military and national security officials begins a rare visit to Taiwan today (SCMP). The officials will meet with President Tsai Ing-wen and other Taiwanese officials and affirm U.S. support for the island.

South and Central Asia
Taliban: Afghans With Legal Documents Can Travel
A Taliban government spokesperson said Afghans who have legal documents and invitations can travel abroad (TOLOnews). Countries including the United States and United Kingdom had criticized the Taliban’s announcement on Sunday of new travel restrictions.
 
India/Ukraine: An Indian student was killed in the shelling (NDTV) of Kharkiv, Ukraine, India’s foreign ministry said. Some sixteen thousand Indian students are thought to be in Ukraine.

Middle East and North Africa
UN Security Council Extends Arms Embargo to All Houthis
The arms embargo previously applied (Al Jazeera) only to some leaders of the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Russia voted to extend the embargo despite its ties with Iran, which backs the Houthis.
 
This Backgrounder unpacks the war in Yemen.
 
Tunisia: At least nine migrants died after their boat overturned (AP) off the Tunisian coast.

Sub-Saharan Africa
DRC Court Sidelines Chinese Owner of Cobalt Mine Over Payment Dispute
The court ruled that the owner, China Molybdenum, will lose leadership of the mine (NYT) for at least six months. The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) said the company owes billions of dollars in payments.
 
Burkina Faso: The chief of the military junta signed a charter saying the country will hold elections in three years, AFP reported.
 
For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR’s Ebenezer Obadare explains why Burkina Faso’s coup bodes ill for stability in West Africa.

Europe
Turkey to Ban Warships From Entering Black Sea Straits
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey will apply the Montreux Convention (Hurriyet), which allows it to prevent warships from entering the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits, to avoid escalation in the war in Ukraine.

Americas
Canada to Supply Anti-tank Weapons to Ukraine, Ban Russian Oil Imports
The oil ban is largely symbolic, as Canada has not imported Russian crude oil since 2019. The shipment of anti-tank weapons systems will be Canada’s third (CBC) delivery of lethal weapons to Ukraine during the current conflict.
 
U.S./Cuba: The United States plans to increase staffing at its Havana embassy to restore visa processing for Cubans, which has largely been suspended since the Donald Trump administration, unnamed sources told Reuters.
 
This Backgrounder looks at U.S.-Cuba relations.

United States
U.S. Expels Twelve Russian Diplomats Over Espionage Allegations
The diplomats were asked to leave the United States (NPR) by March 7. A spokesperson for the U.S. Mission to the United Nations said the expulsion had been in the works for several months.
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