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February 28, 2022

This month's newsletter features a report on Iran’s asymmetric use of its
conventional military capabilities. Tehran and its proxies, led by the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have gained regional influence by
employing missiles, drones, and small naval vessels in targeted attacks
calibrated to avoid large-scale retaliation. The report includes a
description of Iran's most potent conventional capabilities as well as
analysis of Tehran’s strategic thinking.

The newsletter also features profiles of key entities in an international
network supplying electronics to Iran Communications Industries (ICI), a
military firm. Documents from the Iran Watch library include an
announcement of a new Iranian ballistic missile and statements from
Germany, Israel, Iran, the E.U., and the U.S. Congress addressing the
ongoing negotiations in Vienna for the restoration of the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as well as news about a draft deal in
Vienna, the resumption of U.S. sanctions waivers for civilian nuclear
projects in Iran, and Iran's shift of centrifuge manufacturing from Karaj
to Isfahan.

[2]View the newsletter in your browser and [3]subscribe to receive it in
your inbox.

PUBLICATIONS

[4]

Smoke rises from the Abqaiq oil refinery in Saudi Arabia on September 14,
2019. Image source: Planet (Planet Labs)

Report | [5]Leveling the Field: Iran’s Asymmetric Use of Conventional
Military Capabilities

Iran views its external security as reliant on its ability to exert
influence in the Middle East. Owing to Tehran’s relative diplomatic and
economic isolation, military power is the main tool available to Iran’s
leaders for attaining this objective. To be effective, however, Iran must
be able to use its military capabilities to credibly threaten its
neighbors, to control or limit access to key chokepoints in the Persian
Gulf, and to deter a direct attack against Iran or its forces.

Iran cannot achieve these ends with its arsenal of main battle tanks,
capital ships, and fighter aircraft—the traditional mainstays of land, sea,
and air power—which are aging and obsolete. Instead, Iran expanded its
asymmetric use of conventional military capabilities in the form of attacks
which employ relatively inexpensive but difficult-to-counter weapons and
are calibrated not to provoke large-scale military retaliation. Tehran
seems likely to continue this behavior as it improves its drone, missile,
and naval capabilities—while remaining careful to avoid putting those
capabilities to the test in direct combat.

[6]READ THE REPORT

ENTITIES OF CONCERN

An international network centered on Iran-based telecommunications firm
Hoda Trading procured U.S.-origin electronics, some with military
applications, for Iran Communications Industries (ICI), a state-owned
enterprise subordinate to Iran's Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces
Logistics (MODAFL).

[7]Iran Communications Industries (ICI)

A subsidiary of Iran Electronics Industries (IEI) that manufactures
military communication equipment and systems; produces items used in
telecommunication, information technology, and electronic warfare systems,
as well as in avionics, optic and electro-optic devices, micro-electronics,
and missile launchers.

[8]LEARN MORE

[9]Hoda Trading

An Iranian electronics and telecommunications company; a subsidiary of Iran
Communications Industries (ICI); has procured U.S.-origin electronic
components from China on behalf of ICI, including high frequency Near
Vertical Incidence Skywave (NVIS) antennas, which have military
applications.

[10]LEARN MORE

[11]DES International Co., Ltd.

A Taiwan-based trading company; according to the U.S. Department of the
Treasury, part of an electronic components procurement network run by Hoda
Trading and Mohammad Soltanmohammadi on behalf of ICI; purchased
U.S.-origin electronics and transshipped them to an Iranian buyer via
Taiwan and Hong Kong.

[12]LEARN MORE

[13]Artin Sana'at Tabaan Company

An Iranian computer parts manufacturer; according to the U.S. Department of
the Treasury, was part of an electronic components procurement network run
by Hoda Trading and Mohammad Soltanmohammadi on behalf of ICI.

[14]LEARN MORE

IN THE NEWS

[15]

The JCPOA Joint Commission meets in December 2021. Image by European Union
External Action Service (EEAS)

[16]Iran Nuclear Deal Draft Puts Prisoners, Enrichment, Cash First, Oil
Comes Later | Reuters

February 17, 2022: Diplomats involved in nuclear negotiations in Vienna
shared details of a draft deal on February 17. The draft outlines steps
parties will take to bring them back into compliance with the JCPOA.
Initially, Iran would stop enriching uranium above 5% purity and release
Western prisoners held in Iran, and the United States would unfreeze $7
billion of frozen Iranian funds held abroad. Subsequent steps would include
the United States issuing sanctions waivers permitting Iran to export its
oil and Iran abiding by a 3.67% enrichment cap. The stages would culminate
in a Re-Implementation Day one to three months from an agreement on the
proposed deal. According to unnamed officials, Iran seeks to include a
measure that would allow it to resume enriching uranium to 60% if the
United States violates the new deal.

[17]U.S. Grants Sanctions Relief To Iran As Nuke Talks In Balance |
Associated Press

February 4, 2022: On February 4, the United States restored waivers that
shield foreign companies working on certain civilian nuclear projects in
Iran from U.S. sanctions. The waivers permit work at nuclear facilities in
Bushehr, Arak, and at the Tehran Research Reactor and apply to companies
from the European Union, China, and Russia. The Trump administration had
rescinded the waivers in May 2020, two years after withdrawing the United
States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

[18]Iran Moves Centrifuge Parts Production Out Of Disputed Workshop, IAEA
Says | Reuters

January 31, 2022: Iran moved centrifuge manufacturing equipment from the
TESA Karaj plant to Isfahan in late January, just over a month after
agreeing to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to access
the Karaj plant. Iranian officials notified the IAEA of the move on January
19 and allowed the Agency to install cameras at the Isfahan facility five
days later. The Agency also placed seals on the remaining equipment in
Karaj and removed its cameras there. The IAEA noted in a confidential
report that production at Karaj had ceased and that the Isfahan facility
had not yet begun production as of January 24.

FROM THE LIBRARY

Security developments included Iran unveiling a new ballistic missile and
Lieutenant General Michael Kurilla's confirmation hearing to be the new
commander of U.S. Central Command.
* IRGC officers [19]unveiled the Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile, a
solid-fueled, domestically manufactured model with a declared range of
1,450 km - February 9
* LTG Kurilla [20]called Iran the “primary and enduring threat” in the
Middle East during his confirmation hearing - February 8

Officials from Israel and several of the countries participating in nuclear
negotiations in Vienna made speeches and statements about the talks.
* In a [21]speech to American Jewish organizations, Israeli Prime
Minister Naftali Bennett claimed that Iran demanded that sanctions on the
IRGC be lifted as part of a deal - February 20
* German Chancellor Olaf Scholz [22]told attendees of the Munich Security
Conference that “all of the elements for a conclusion to the negotiations
[in Vienna] are on the table” - February 19
* In a [23]phone call with the European Union’s top diplomat Josep
Borrell, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said that his
country would only agree to a deal if it realizes Iran's economic interests
- February 6

Members of Congress weighed in on the prospect that diplomacy in Vienna
will lead to a revival of the JCPOA.
* Republicans in the [24]House and [25]Senate threatened to obstruct a
new deal’s implementation if it is not first sent to Congress for approval
- February 7 and 16
* Senators Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) [26]introduced a
resolution to establish a nuclear fuel bank for any state in the Middle
East that chooses to end uranium enrichment activities - February 11
* Senate Foreign Relations Committee member Chris Murphy (D-CT)
[27]argued in favor of a swift return to the JCPOA - February 9
* U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price [28]argued that newly
reinstated waivers for civilian nuclear projects do not amount to sanctions
relief - February 7

Iran Watch is a website published by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms
Control. The Wisconsin Project is a non-profit, non-partisan organization
that conducts research, advocacy, and public education aimed at inhibiting
strategic trade from contributing to the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction.

Copyright © 2022 - Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control

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