Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
February 28, 2022
Top of the Agenda
Russia, Ukraine Hold Talks Amid Efforts to Financially Pressure Moscow
High-level delegations from Russia and Ukraine began talks today (RFE/RL) at Ukraine’s border with Belarus. The talks follow sweeping international efforts to financially pressure Moscow and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that the country’s nuclear weapons are on “special alert” (BBC)
 
The Russian ruble fell to a record low (FT) and Russia’s central bank more than doubled interest rates after countries including the United States, European Union (EU) nations, Japan, and South Korea introduced new financial sanctions over the weekend. Additionally, the EU agreed to arm Ukraine (FT), the first time it has done so for a third-party country. The UN General Assembly will hold an emergency session (Politico) on the Russian invasion today.
Analysis
“Putin’s defeat would stave off what could be a far more dangerous era of international relations, one characterized by less freedom, more frequent conflict, and more widespread proliferation of conventional and nuclear arms. If Putin is allowed to succeed in Ukraine, he would be unlikely to stop there,” CFR President Richard Haass writes in the Boston Globe.
 
“Western unity is impressive. Yet the West’s strategic goals need to be defined. Western sanctions policy has become—tacitly—one of regime change or of a leadership change within the regime,” the Catholic University of America’s Michael Kimmage tweets.

Europe
Germany to Boost Military Spending, Send Ukraine Weapons in Defense Policy Shift
Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that Germany will channel $110 billion (WaPo) to the armed forces this year, which is about twice last year’s defense spending. In a reversal of previous policy, Germany will also send weapons (Politico) to Ukraine.

Pacific Rim
Beijing’s Muted Position on Ukraine Draws Criticism on Chinese Social Media
Images of global anti-war protests circulated on Weibo (Bloomberg) over the weekend, and some users openly criticized the war. Chinese state media organizations have refused to call Russia’s attack on Ukraine an invasion and described it as the “Russia-Ukraine conflict.”
 
CFR’s Ian Johnson and Kathy Huang unpack China’s response to the invasion.
 
Japan: Automaker Toyota is suspending operations at all of its plants in Japan until at least Wednesday after a major supplier was hit by a suspected cyberattack, Nikkei reported.

South and Central Asia
Taliban Ban Afghans From Evacuating
A government spokesperson said Afghans need “an excuse” (AFP) to leave the country. Separately, a house-to-house security sweep continues across Kabul. The Taliban said the operation is looking for “kidnappers, thieves, and looters.”
 
India/Ukraine: After India abstained from a UN Security Council vote condemning Russian “aggression” against Ukraine on Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke on the phone (Indian Express) with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to seek India’s support at the Security Council.

Middle East and North Africa
Israel’s Bennett Offers to Mediate Between Russia, Ukraine
In a call with Russian President Putin yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett reportedly offered to mediate talks (Times of Israel) between Russia and Ukraine and said an Israeli plane scheduled to travel to Ukraine will carry humanitarian aid rather than military supplies.
 
Qatar: The foreign ministry called for a diplomatic settlement (Reuters) to the conflict in Ukraine. Most Gulf states have aimed for a neutral stance (FT) on the conflict.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Nigerians Fleeing Ukraine Denied Entry to Poland
Nigerians are being denied entry to Poland even after Nigerian Foreign Minister Geoffrey Onyeama raised the issue with Poland’s ambassador to Nigeria, Peoples Gazette reported.
 
Sudan: The group leading protests against Sudan’s military government published a political charter (Reuters) that calls for a two-year transitional government that would facilitate the ratification of a new constitution.
 
For Foreign Affairs, CFR’s Michelle Gavin writes that the United States should have faith in democracy in Sudan.

Americas
Mercosur Shelves Call for Russian Military Withdrawal Over Brazil’s Lack of Support
Mercosur, or the Southern Common Market, withdrew a draft communique (MercoPress) calling for “the immediate withdrawal of Russian military forces from Ukrainian territory” because Brazil did not join Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay in supporting it.
 
This Backgrounder looks at Mercosur, South America’s fractious trade bloc.
 
Colombia: Authorities said an explosion at a mine in the central Boyaca province killed eleven people (Reuters).

United States
Biden Announces Supreme Court Pick
President Joe Biden’s nominee, federal appeals court judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, begins meetings with lawmakers (Hill) this week. If confirmed, she would be the first Black woman to serve as a Supreme Court justice.

Global
UN Climate Report Lists ‘Unavoidable’ Ways World Will Grow More Dangerous
A new UN report (IPCC) examines how climate change is already hurting and will continue to hurt (AP) human and planetary health. It details 127 ways the earth could degrade, some of which are “potentially irreversible.”
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