The Russian invasion of Ukraine could precipitate an acute refugee crisis. The UN refugee agency estimates that 100,000 people have already left their homes within Ukraine and U.S. officials estimate that as many as 5 million people could be forced from home. Those with the means to do so have piled belongings and relatives into cars and buses, largely heading to the western reaches of Ukraine or international borders. Those without means remain in harm’s way.

SOURCE: "Experts React: Ukraine’s Regional Displacement Crisis" by CSIS's Erol Yayboke.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shot up global commodity prices and several countries in the Middle East are particularly vulnerable to higher prices and disrupted supplies. For example, Lebanon imports 60 percent of its wheat from Ukraine and only has a month's worth of wheat in storage.

SOURCE: "Hedging, Hunger, and Hostilities: The Middle East after Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine" by CSIS's Jon Alterman.

China has conducted a systematic cyber and cognitive warfare campaign including espionage, misinformation, and subversive efforts to signal its ability to digitally sabotage Taiwan during a crisis. In 2020 alone, cyberattacks targeting the Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs increased by 40 times the level seen in 2018 and averaged over 2,000 intrusions a day. These activities reinforce long-standing efforts to economically coerce and diplomatically isolate what Beijing perceives as a rogue province.

SOURCE: "Shadow Risk: What Crisis Simulations Reveal about the Dangers of Deferring U.S. Responses to China’s Gray Zone Campaign against Taiwan" by CSIS's Benjamin Jenson, Bonny Lin, and Carolina Ramos.

Russia’s historical role in the Balkans resonates to this day. While there were recurrent tensions between Belgrade and Moscow in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, Russia is perceived
as a protector of Orthodox Christians and Serbs. A 2017 opinion poll found that 80 percent of respondents in Serbia believe that a strong Russia is necessary to balance the influence of the West.

SOURCE: "The Kremlin Playbook 3: Keeping the Faith" by CSIS's Donatienne Ruy and Heather A. Conley, Marlene Laruelle, Tengiz Pkhaladze, Elizabeth H. Prodromou, and Majda Ruge