Nov. 15, 2019
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Trade in goods deficit with China down 12.8 percent first nine months of 2019, or $38.5 billion as trade talks continue
The U.S. trade in goods deficit with
China is down 12.8 percent in the first nine months of 2019, or $38.5 billion,
compared to 2018, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The
numbers came with the 10 percent tariffs President Donald Trump levied on $200
billion of goods and 25 percent on $50 billion until May, when Trump raised the
tariff to 25 percent for all $250 billion. Then, in July he added another 10
percent tariff on the remaining $300 billion of goods, bringing it to a total
of almost $550 billion of goods being taxed. Overall imports from China for the
year are already down $53 billion this year. At the current pace, exports to
the U.S. could drop by $72.5 billion, or 13.4 percent this year. That amounts
to a 0.5 percent of China’s $13.6 trillion Gross Domestic Product. The longer Beijing
waits to make a deal, the more the tariffs go up.
Cartoon: MAGA Shield
He’s doing it for us.
Video: Ambassador Kent confirms Trump is right and Ukraine, Burisma are corrupt and need to be investigated
Democrats’ star witness Ambassador
George Kent admits Ukraine, Burisma are corrupt and needs to be investigated,
saying the company granted itself gas exploration leases and even bribed
prosecutors to make a corruption case against it go away — the same corruption
case at the same company that President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky discussed in their July 25 phone call. So, if the investigation
into Burisma is legitimate, then why are we having impeachment hearings?
Contrary to the liberal media’s narrative, there was no blue wave in the recent state elections
Because they want you to convince
you that Trump has no chance of winning next year, the liberal media would like
for you to believe that there was a massive blue wave that washed across the
country last week, but that is just not true. Republicans did suffer some
setbacks, particularly in suburban areas; but they also made gains, which the
liberal media has conveniently ignored or downplayed. The media was
particularly pleased with Democrats’ performance in Virginia and Kentucky, but
there are simple explanations for what happened in those states. Meanwhile, the
media has not said much about Mississippi, New Jersey, Indiana, Texas, Colorado
or Washington — probably because Republicans and conservatives won there.
Daily Caller: Trump raises $3.1 million in the wake of impeachment hearing
“President Donald Trump’s reelection
team reported a huge fundraising push in the 24 hours following the first
public impeachment hearing. Trump’s campaign manager drew a direct line from
the hearing to the dramatic increase in small-dollar donations, suggesting that
Americans were sending a message to House Democrats. An update posted Thursday
morning stated that the $3 million goal had been met and exceeded. President
Trump’s reelection team also claimed to receive record-setting donations in the
24 hours after House Democrats voted to begin an official impeachment inquiry.”
Trade in goods deficit with China down 12.8 percent first nine months of 2019, or $38.5 billion as trade talks continue
By Robert Romano
The U.S. trade in goods deficit with China is down 12.8 percent in the first nine months of 2019, or $38.5 billion, compared to 2018, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The numbers came with the 10 percent tariffs President Donald Trump levied on $200 billion of goods and 25 percent on $50 billion until May, when Trump raised the tariff to 25 percent for all $250 billion. Then, in July he added another 10 percent tariff on the remaining $300 billion of goods, bringing it to a total of almost $550 billion of goods being taxed.
The goods trade deficit reduction of $38.5 billion as of September was where things stood at the time the U.S.-China trade deal in principle was announced in early October, and now we’re about to find out if the agreement will be closed or not.
The Wall Street Journal is reporting a setback in talks on Nov. 12, noting a disagreement over U.S. application of tariffs: “The logjam centers on whether the U.S. has agreed to remove existing tariffs in the so-called ‘phase one’ deal that the two countries have been working toward — or whether the U.S. would only cancel tariffs set to take effect Dec. 15, according to people familiar with the talks.”
For the uninitiated, this is China moving the goal posts — again.
And Trump knows it. The same thing happened in May when Beijing reneged on the deal that was to include provisions on intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, financial services and currency manipulation.
Trump spoke of the impasse at a speech to the New York Economic Club on Nov. 12, explaining that because China broke the deal, that is why he raised the tariffs in the first place, “We had a deal. This gentleman can tell you, we were so close to a deal. The hard points were negotiated: opening up China, intellectual property, all sorts of tremendous penalties. And then, one day, we get a call — seven months ago, we get a call, they’d like to see us. And we saw them, and they explained why they can’t do three or four things that were already agreed to. And I said, ‘Okay. Hey, look, I’m in the real estate business in New York. I’ve heard that before.’ Sadly. It wasn’t like, “Oh, gee, I’m so shocked.” But I was a little surprised. You know, it’s China. They’re not supposed to do that. But they did. And I’ll tell you what: I’ll bet you they wished they didn’t do it. Then I put on 25 percent tariffs on everything coming in — on the first $250 billion of product.”
So, with no deal, the tariffs increased to 25 percent on $250 billion. Now with the deal, Trump said, “It’s going to 15 percent very soon.”
But take note of the aforementioned number. In May, if Beijing had taken the deal, at that time it was 10 percent on $200 billion — $20 billion — and 25 percent on $50 billion — $5 billion. Together that was $25 billion of tariffs if Beijing had simply accepted the deal in May.
Now, Trump says if a deal is made right now, the tariffs will only go down to 15 percent on the $250 billion of goods, or to $37.5 billion, instead of just $25 billion. It keeps getting worse for China the longer they wait. They lost another $12.5 billion because they thought the U.S. would fold. They were wrong, and so the President is ratcheted up the pressure. That’s the way Trump negotiates.
And the President promises it will get even worse for Chinese exporters if they withdraw again. Trump declared, “And I tell this to Larry, I tell it to everybody: If we don’t make a deal, we’re going to substantially raise those tariffs. They’re going to be raised very substantially.”
Perhaps that will be clear to Beijing, even if it’s not clear to the reporters at the Wall Street Journal.
In June, the first month of the increased tariff, imports from China actually dropped 0.7 percent. The same thing happened again in August, with a 0.77 percent drop. In data going back to 1985, imports from China have never dropped in the month of June, and they usually increase in August, too, with a few exceptions, including 2019. Meaning the tariffs are definitely having an impact.
Overall imports from China for the year are already down $53 billion. At the current pace, exports to the U.S. could drop by $72.5 billion, or 13.4 percent this year. That amounts to a little more than 0.5 percent of China’s $13.6 trillion Gross Domestic Product.
U.S. goods exports to China are also down 15 percent, or $14.5 billion. But that’s just 0.06 percent of the $21.5 trillion U.S. Gross Domestic Product.
China has far more to lose in this fight.
From the U.S. standpoint, the overall savings in 2019 so far of $38.5 billion on the trade in goods deficit is $38.5 billion less that will be subtracted from the U.S. economy when the numbers are figured — trade deficits come out of the overall number when GDP is calculated — so no skin off our nose.
So, it’s time for Chinese President Xi Jinping to choose. Deal now, or deal later, but it’s going to keep getting worse if they wait.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government.
Cartoon: MAGA Shield
By A.F. Branco
Click here for a higher level resolution version.
Video: Ambassador Kent confirms Trump is right and Ukraine, Burisma are corrupt and need to be investigated
To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7kjD8q47so
Contrary to the liberal media’s narrative, there was no blue wave in the recent state elections
By Richard McCarty
Because they want you to convince you that Trump has no chance of winning next year, the liberal media would like for you to believe that there was a massive blue wave that washed across the country last week, but that is just not true. Republicans did suffer some setbacks, particularly in suburban areas; but they also made gains, which the liberal media has conveniently ignored or downplayed. The media was particularly pleased with Democrats’ performance in Virginia and Kentucky, but there are simple explanations for what happened in those states. Meanwhile, the media has not said much about Mississippi, New Jersey, Indiana, Texas, Colorado or Washington — probably because Republicans and conservatives won there.
Instead of a blue wave, what Virginia saw was a green wave of money — much of it from out-of-state — after a last-minute, court-ordered redistricting. According to Kim Strassel, Democrats, including, George Soros, Tom Steyer, and Michael Bloomberg, dumped over $50 million into Virginia. But despite Democrats’ hatred of Trump and their significant financial advantage, Democrats only gained eight legislative seats out of 140; and half of the losses suffered by Republicans took place in districts that were redrawn. Even after the liberal onslaught, Virginia Republicans will still hold 45 of 100 delegate seats and 19 of 40 state senate seats; in the not-so-distant past, Republican legislative caucuses were even smaller there.
Elections in Kentucky and Connecticut were a mixed bag for Republicans. In Kentucky, the unpopular Republican governor of Kentucky was defeated by about 5,000 votes out of more than 1.4 million votes cast. Except for the governor and lieutenant governor’s offices, Republicans won all of the statewide offices there, picking up both the attorney general and the secretary of state’s offices that had previously been held by Democrats. In Connecticut’s local elections, the Republican Party and the Democrat Party traded seats. Republicans gained control of 12 localities from Democrats, and Democrats gained control of 11 localities from Republicans.
Pennsylvania elections were also a mixed bag for Republicans. In local elections, Democrats flipped five counties in the eastern part of the state; Republicans flipped six counties, mostly in the western part of the state. In judicial elections, two Republicans and two Democrats ran to fill two open seats on the state’s Superior Court; and one Democrat and Republican prevailed. The state also held judicial retention elections. Four judges ran to keep their seats; and all three Republican judges were retained. Finally, Pennsylvania voters overwhelmingly supported an amendment to the state constitution granting crime victims the right to notice of public proceedings relating to the crime committed against them, the right to speak at such proceedings, notice when a prisoner is released or escapes, and restitution.
Republicans performed pretty well in deep-blue New Jersey. Going into the elections, Democrats had hoped to build upon their recent legislative and Congressional victories. Instead, Republicans gained three state legislative seats in spite of Democrats’ large funding advantage. This is the first time in 28 years that New Jersey Republicans made gains in both chambers of the legislature.
Liberals fared poorly on ballot measures in places that are typically friendly to their candidates and ideas. In deep-blue Washington State, voters narrowly rejected a referendum that would have allowed the state to use affirmative action policies. Washingtonians also approved an initiative that limits car fees and taxes in spite of the fact that opponents, including Amazon and Microsoft, heavily outspent supporters of the initiative. In left-leaning Colorado, voters rejected a proposition that would have allowed the state to keep more of their tax dollars; once again, the left heavily outspent the right but still lost. Finally, in liberal Tucson, Arizona, voters overwhelmingly defeated a proposition to establish a sanctuary city policy.
Conservatives did well in elections in several Republican states. In Mississippi, Republicans swept all of the statewide races, including the attorney general’s office that had previously been held by a Democrat. Mississippi Republicans also added to their legislative caucuses. In Indiana, Republicans flipped 19 mayoral offices and will soon have more Republican mayors than they have ever had before. In Texas, voters overwhelmingly voted to make it nearly impossible to impose an income tax in spite of strong opposition from liberal newspaper editorial boards.
While disappointing in some places, last week’s elections were certainly not the unmitigated disaster that the liberal media would like for you to believe that they were. In fact, Republicans and conservative ideas fared well in some usual (and some unusual) places. There is no cause for losing hope.
Richard McCarty is the Director of Research at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
ALG Editor’s Note: In the following featured report from the Daily Caller’s Virginia Kruta, President Donald Trump and the Republican National Committee drew $3.1 million of small dollar donations in the wake of the House Democratic public hearings on impeachment:
Trump raises $3.1 million in the wake of impeachment hearing
By Virginia Kruta
President Donald Trump’s reelection team reported a huge fundraising push in the 24 hours following the first public impeachment hearing.
Trump’s campaign manager drew a direct line from the hearing to the dramatic increase in small-dollar donations, suggesting that Americans were sending a message to House Democrats.
“When Dems & media go nuts @realDonaldTrump’s campaign gets stronger! In 24 hours after #HearsayHearing: ✅$3.1M in small dollar donations ✅One of our best fundraising days ever… again! Dems just don’t get it. They are filling our bank and improving our turnout every day!” Parscale tweeted.
The Trump 2020 reelection team sent out calls for donations as the hearing began Wednesday, saying, “Little Adam Schiff is a National Disgrace. President Trump needs YOU to send Dems a message during these Impeachment Hearings.@parscale is sharing updated fundraising numbers with @realDonaldTrump soon!”
The team also promised that all donations would be 2x matched.
An update posted Thursday morning stated that the $3 million goal had been met and exceeded. President Trump’s reelection team also claimed to receive record-setting donations in the 24 hours after House Democrats voted to begin an official impeachment inquiry.
