John —

The events of the past 36 hours have been shocking and heartbreaking, and yet, with the benefit of good intelligence, not a surprise. Putin made up his mind to invade his neighbor, and he did so, rejecting all efforts at diplomacy. Now that we see the tragedy unfolding, I want to share with you some thoughts about how we got here, and where we go from here, as well.

Days ago, Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of a budding democracy on his border — Ukraine. It is a war that was wholly unnecessary, completely of Putin’s own making, and will spur a humanitarian disaster.

A budding democracy on your border is never a justification for war. But for Putin, an autocrat terrified his people want more than dictatorship, Ukraine is a threat. The color revolutions of the last decade — including the Orange Revolution that displaced a Kremlin stooge and brought a pro-western democracy to power in Ukraine — pose an existential challenge to a dictator like Putin. If Ukrainians, who have much in common with their Russian neighbors, can enjoy democracy, why must the Russian people suffer Putin’s tyranny? His aggression is driven by his own paranoia over losing power. A paranoia that I hope will one day prove warranted.

For the last few months, world leaders and those of us in Congress who have been focused on Ukraine have been calling for peace and diplomacy, while simultaneously taking steps to deter Putin and prepare Ukraine to defend itself. At times, Ukraine seemed unwilling to acknowledge the danger of a Russian invasion, and who can blame them. It was a prospect too terrible to contemplate. And yet our intelligence proved all too prescient, and Ukraine is now in a life and death struggle to maintain its democracy and independence.

Make no mistake, there is no way the United States or our Allies can escape the consequences of this war. If Putin is successful in this invasion and can subjugate the people of Ukraine, he will be emboldened and the next target may be a NATO country and one we are compelled to defend. What’s more, China is watching the world’s reaction, with an eye towards a possible invasion of Taiwan in the future. If it finds the West unwilling to stand together, it may embark on its own brutal war of choice.

And so, it is vitally important that we help Ukraine succeed in resisting Russian aggression, through punishing sanctions on Russia and through defensive military support for Ukraine. Thanks to the extensive diplomatic efforts of the Biden Administration, we have come together with our NATO and other Allies on a devastating series of sanctions on Russian banks, industry, technology support, and oligarchs. And it is my hope we will go even further. The Russian people must be made to feel the terrible folly of their leader’s deadly belligerence.

There will be some at home who seek to politicize this tragedy, like the former President who praised Putin as a genius, even while he was invading our democratic ally. But our focus must remain on Ukraine and its people, and the humanitarian crisis that is unfolding.

Over the days and weeks ahead, the images we will see from Ukraine will be devastating. Indeed they already are. Ukrainians deserve so much better and need our strong support.

Please keep Ukraine in your thoughts and prayers. Talk soon.

— Adam