Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
February 25, 2022
Top of the Agenda
Russian Forces Advance on Kyiv as Ukraine’s Zelensky Calls on Moscow to ‘Stop the Death’
Invading Russian forces advanced on the outskirts of Ukraine’s capital (RFE/RL), Kyiv, today as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Moscow to negotiate (FT) to “stop the death.” A Kremlin spokesperson said Russian President Vladimir Putin is prepared to send a delegation to Minsk, Belarus, for talks with Ukrainian officials.

More than one hundred thousand Ukrainians have fled their homes (Reuters) since the invasion began, according to the United Nations. Zelensky said 137 Ukrainians were killed yesterday. Washington announced new sanctions on Russian banks, and the European Union is prepared to announce its response today. The UN Security Council is set to vote today (Reuters) on a draft resolution condemning Russia’s invasion. Russia is expected to veto the measure.
Analysis
Putin may be able to take the whole country if he uses overwhelming force, but he won’t be able to hold it forever. Resistance will be fierce, especially in western Ukraine, the birthplace of Ukrainian nationalism,” the Atlantic Council’s Melinda Haring writes for Foreign Affairs.

“By invading Ukraine, Putin might well be overreaching and unwittingly sowing the seeds of the demise of his regime,” CFR’s Charles A. Kupchan writes.

This timeline traces Ukraine’s struggle for independence in Russia’s shadow.

Pacific Rim
China Skirts Open Condemnation of Russian Invasion
In a phone call yesterday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that China understands Russia’s security concerns, but that Russia should pursue dialogue rather than military action (NPR) in Ukraine. China has not publicly condemned the invasion (Nikkei).
 
For Foreign Affairs, Hal Brands discusses China-Russia convergence and the future of American order.
 
Taiwan: The island announced it will sanction Russia (SCMP) for invading Ukraine. It is expected to restrict the export of microchips and other technology products to Russia.

South and Central Asia
India’s Modi Urges Putin to End Violence
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with Russian President Putin by phone yesterday, calling for an “immediate cessation of violence” (Wire) and talks to resolve the conflict.
 
For Think Global Health, CFR’s David P. Fidler examines how the invasion darkens the future for global health.
 
Pakistan: A court sentenced a man to death (Al Jazeera) for murdering, raping, and beheading a woman in Islamabad last year. The case prompted widespread protests against gender-based violence.

Middle East and North Africa
Syria’s Assad Voices Support for Putin
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad called Putin to voice support (Reuters) for Russia’s military operations in Ukraine. Some people in Syria’s Idlib Governorate, a rebel bastion, voiced solidarity (Al Jazeera) with Ukrainians.
 
Israel: After Foreign Affairs Minister Yair Lapid condemned Russia’s invasion, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett did not assign blame (JTA) when speaking about it.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Somalia Delays Presidential Vote Until at Least March 15
Parliamentary elections that began in November were extended until March 15. Lawmakers will choose a new president (Bloomberg) after the elections end.
 
For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR’s Michelle Gavin discusses how Somalia’s political crisis poses a problem for U.S. policy.
 
Namibia: TotalEnergies announced that it made a significant discovery (Reuters) of light oil and associated gas off the coast of Namibia. It is the second such discovery in the area in a month.

Europe
Anti-war Protests Occur Across Russia
Authorities detained more than 1,700 people (Politico) yesterday for protesting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, monitoring group OVD-Info said.

Americas
Brazil’s Bolsonaro: Vice President Cannot Condemn Russian Invasion
After Vice President Hamilton Mourao said Brazil condemned the invasion, President Jair Bolsonaro said it was not Mourao’s business (Reuters) to comment on behalf of the country.
 
Paraguay: President Mario Abdo Benitez dismissed two senior officials (Bloomberg) in one week in the wake of a sweeping probe of drug trafficking and money laundering.

United States
Biden Administration Debates Arming Ukrainians
Some Joe Biden administration officials pushed for Washington to arm Ukrainians resisting Russian forces. Other officials warned that such a move could legally make the United States a co-combatant (Foreign Policy) in a wider war with Russia and escalate tensions between the two nuclear powers.
Friday Editor’s Pick
Politico dissects the shortcomings of the Biden administration’s attempts to change Putin’s calculus in Ukraine.
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