Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
February 24, 2022
Top of the Agenda
Russia Attacks Ukraine by Air, Land, and Sea
Russian tanks and armored vehicles rolled into Ukraine on three fronts (FT) in a large-scale invasion that began early this morning. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared martial law and called for Ukrainians with battle experience to take up arms to defend the country. A Ukrainian official said dozens of troops had been killed. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine had called for military assistance (DW) against what he called Ukrainian “aggression” and said that anyone trying to intervene would face consequences “such as you have never seen in your entire history” (Kremlin). Leaders around the world condemned the attack, while China refused to call it an invasion and urged dialogue (CNBC). U.S. President Joe Biden said “the world will hold Russia accountable” (NYT) and is expected to announce new sanctions today.
Analysis
“Mr. Putin is choosing the path of war. This calls for a determined, comprehensive reply from the West. Mr. Putin’s war of choice demands a response of necessity,” CFR President Richard Haass writes for the New York Times

“Russia has far more—and far better—artillery, reconnaissance, and logistical capabilities than Ukraine does. The Russian military would have the advantage along every axis of attack,” the Center for Naval Analyses’ Michael Kofman and Jeffrey Edmonds write for Foreign Affairs

“Neither Russia nor [the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)] want this crisis to escalate into a Russia-NATO conflict,” the RAND Corporation’s Samuel Charap tells the Economist. “But with huge numbers of Russian forces conducting large-scale combat operations on NATO’s doorstep, it’s very easy to imagine how things could spiral out of control quickly.”

At this CFR event yesterday, CFR’s Haass and Charles A. Kupchan discussed the crisis in Ukraine with Stanford University’s Rose Gottemoeller and the Brookings Institution’s Angela Stent.

Pacific Rim
Taiwan Calls to Increase Vigilance in Response to Ukraine Invasion
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen called for increased surveillance (Taiwan News) of military activities near the island and of disinformation efforts. China’s foreign ministry said that Taiwan is “not Ukraine” (Reuters).
 
For the Asia Unbound blog, CFR’s David Sacks writes that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine threatens China’s hopes for Taiwan.
 
China: Authorities detained six people and fired eight officials (AP) in the case of a trafficked woman whose plight caused outrage after images circulated online showing her in chains.

South and Central Asia
Ukraine’s Envoy to India ‘Pleads’ for New Delhi to Intervene
Ukrainian Ambassador Igor Polikha told reporters that he was “pleading” for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to intervene (Nikkei) in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Modi did not immediately comment on the invasion, and an Indian diplomat called for “the legitimate security interests of all parties” to be considered during yesterday’s UN Security Council meeting.
 
For Foreign Affairs, CFR’s Manjari Chatterjee Miller argues that the Ukraine crisis should force the Indian government to rethink its Russia policy.
 
Pakistan: Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is meeting with Putin (Dawn) in Moscow today. They are expected to discuss a gas pipeline project (Dawn).

Middle East and North Africa
Iran’s Nuclear Envoy Returns to Tehran for Consultations
The step could mark the final leg of negotiations in Vienna (Bloomberg) over a return to the 2015 nuclear deal. The U.S. State Department said an agreement could be days away if critical issues can be resolved.
 
This Backgrounder unpacks the Iran nuclear deal.
 
Yemen: The U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions (Al-Monitor) on a smuggling network it said helps finance the Houthi rebels. It said the network is led by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a Houthi financier.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Sudanese Protests on Trade Route to Egypt Caused January Export Plunge
Sudan’s exports last month fell to 85 percent (Bloomberg) of their January 2021 level, according to government data.
 
South Africa: Data from South Africa suggests that the coronavirus’s omicron subvariant BA.2 is more infectious (Reuters) than the original BA.1 subvariant, though it does not cause more severe disease, the head of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.

Europe
Central European Countries Prepare for Ukrainian Refugees
Poland said it is setting up hospitals and centers (Politico) to receive Ukrainian refugees. Hungary and Slovakia said they are also preparing to assist refugees (Reuters), while Germany offered aid to countries bordering Ukraine.

Americas
Nicaragua, Venezuela Defend Russia’s Stance on Ukraine
The countries’ leaders defended Putin’s actions (Miami Herald) in Ukraine, while Cuba’s foreign ministry blamed the United States for the crisis but called for it to be resolved diplomatically.
 
Canada: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ended his use of the Emergencies Act (CBC), which he used to respond to protesters in Ottawa, saying an inquiry into the law’s application will begin in sixty days.

United States
Biden Prepares Harsher Sanctions on Russia
The United States is weighing a sanctions package (NPR) that would target two of Russia’s largest banks, its oil and gas industry, and U.S. technology exports to the country.
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