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A Ukrainian serviceman, 21 years-old, at a frontline position held by Ukraine's 503rd Detached Marine Battalion on February 7, 2022 near Verkhnotoretske, Ukraine. (Gaelle Girbes/Getty Images)

The Kremlin is manufacturing multiple pretexts to justify invading Ukraine, and as Congressman Mike Turner (R-OH) said at Hudson: Putin won’t stop there. See below for more of his conversation with Distinguished Fellow Kenneth Weinstein [[link removed]].

As events continue to unfold, don't miss our special ongoing analyses of the Ukraine crisis, which has examined the Black Sea's role [[link removed]] in a potential Russian invasion and five scenarios [[link removed]] to watch for in Ukraine. Sign up for Re: Ukraine here. [[link removed]]

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Rep. Turner on Ukraine

1. Putin Won't Stop at Ukraine

If Putin goes ahead and invades Ukraine, Ukraine is not the heart of the former Soviet Union, it's a part. He has openly said that his goal is the reunification of the territory of the former Soviet Union. Well, sometimes we should listen to our adversaries, because this is not about Ukraine. Ukraine is not a threat to him, NATO is not a threat to him.

If they do this, Putin's not stopping. He said he wasn't, and that means that the remainder of the nations that used to be part of the Soviet Union, those in the Warsaw Pact, are now at risk. So, if he took the force that he amassed to invade Ukraine. It's stable there where those forces are, again, free.

If he turned those forces north and went to the Baltics, we're in a conflict between the United States, Russia and NATO, and a RAND study on what happens if Russia invades the Baltics is that the Baltics would quickly fall and NATO would be in a situation of real conflict between nuclear powers.

If Putin invades Ukraine, he's not stopping there.

2. Germany Is Undermining NATO

The Biden administration is continuing to say that NATO is unified, while we all know that it's not. Germany has the legacy from Merkel, and her constant claim that the Minsk Agreement was going to result in Putin standing down in Ukraine, remaining sovereign, which it was not, and it was never being abided by Russia. You see even now, Germany is blocking other nation's ability to send weapons. Lithuania wanted to send surface-to-air missiles through NATO, Germany blocked it. We had to do a bilateral between the United States and Lithuania to get the missiles, and I don't even know if they've made it yet, because there were continued delays.

You had Estonia requesting to send German-made weapons, and Germany, because of its legacy ability to control its weapons that it has sold, blocked that. Germany has been so unwilling to stand with the democracy of Ukraine that the UK, when they went to send weapons in aid to the Ukraine, didn't even ask for overflight rights. They just flew around [Germany] and told NATO and its allies that they understood that Germany was not likely to be supportive. So as they give this fiction of "we're together, but we're not," and our NATO allies, with Germany as a big dissenter, are not being able to act with the type of consensus that NATO requires, it really shows an opportunity for Putin and it shows our weakness.

If [Germany isn’t] for supporting Ukraine to defend themselves, if they're not for punishing Russia for taking this action, then what are those basic values that they stand for? Then that causes a shaking of NATO, because those have been the unquestionable values of NATO.

3. The Russian Military's Gray Zone Tactics To Secure Territory

What Russia has done in Kaliningrad, Crimea, and Syria has been to recreate an area of access denial that's greater than what they had, even when they had the Warsaw Pact states. So even though NATO now encompasses those nations that broke free from the Soviet Union's grip, Russia's ability to deny access to the area, to defend itself by Crimea, Kaliningrad, and Syria, is even greater than it was.

They're not in a diminished capacity, they're actually even in a greater capacity. What our Black Sea allies see is after they militarized Crimea to make it look more like Kaliningrad and perhaps even have nuclear weapons there, that they're very fearful of what Russia will do along the border of Ukraine with our other NATO nations. They see what [Russia has done in] Belarus and if they replicate that in Ukraine, especially how they intimidate shipping and aircraft, the shooting down of the commercial airliner when they were invading and occupying Crimea. This is going to become a very dangerous space.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.

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Counterbalance | Ep. 34: Can Ukraine "Not Lose" Against a Russian Invasion? [[link removed]]

On the latest episode of Counterbalance, Hudson's Bryan Clark [[link removed]] joins Michael Doran [[link removed]] and Marshall Kosloff [[link removed]] to explain why Putin’s Ukraine strategy is an effective example of “decision-centric warfare” and what the U.S. can learn from the Russian military’s reformed force-structure.

Listen [[link removed]]

Turkey’s Role in the Ukraine Crisis [[link removed]]

Turkey has conducted a delicate balancing act in its relations with Russia. While Ankara has emerged in recent years as a staunch supporter of Ukraine, it has also sought to compartmentalize its differences with Moscow. Mike Doran [[link removed]] was joined by experts Svante Cornell, Rich Outzen, and Sinan Ülgen to examine whether fears of Russian expansionism will push Turkey to strengthen its ties with Ukraine.

Watch [[link removed]]

Putin’s Political and Military Options in Ukraine and Beyond [[link removed]]

As Russia prepares to invade Ukraine, four specific scenarios are likely to take place, writes Richard Weitz [[link removed]]. From enhancing Russia's negotiating leverage to conquering Ukraine, the Kremlin is poised to exact horrendous human and economic costs across the region.

Read [[link removed]] Before You Go...

The Andrew W. Marshall Scholar Program [[link removed]]

In partnership with the Andrew W. Marshall Foundation, Hudson Institute’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology is pleased to host the second year of its Andrew W. Marshall Scholar program, dedicated to promoting innovative thinkers in the field of national security. Analysts currently working in U.S. national security are invited to apply for the scholarship by February 25, 2022.

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