TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Bobby Maggio, Campaign Manager
MEMO: Strategy for 2022

In Pennsylvania, Democrats cannot afford to run the same old playbook. We have learned from watching the 2021 election in Virginia, as well as what we’ve heard on the ground, that Democrats cannot rely on just Philadelphia and Pittsburgh to win this race.

Fortunately, in what will be the most important Senate race in the country this year, we have the ideal candidate for a year when traditional Democrats are likely to struggle. Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman appeals across the political spectrum, inspires genuine grassroots enthusiasm, connects with working class voters, and has proven that he can win votes in the reddest counties in Pennsylvania.

To have our best chance at flipping this crucial open seat, Democrats need to nominate John Fetterman, the only candidate in the race who has already proven he can run and win statewide in PA.

Please see below for updates on polling, our 67-County plan, and fundraising.

Polling

You all know how John and I feel about polling. But if you're counting, we've been ahead — far ahead — in every primary poll.

The results of our most recent poll from Data for Progress came in on Feb 1, 2022, and it showed John at least 30 points ahead of his opponents. This is great to hear, but it doesn’t mean we can slow down.

We're polling ahead of our Republican opponents, but it’s a much closer race. The latest polling shows John ahead of our GOP opponents, but only two points ahead of frontrunner Dr. Oz.

Here’s what that poll means: Among likely Pennsylvania voters, John Fetterman is ahead of Dr. Oz, meaning we’re leading this race to replace Pat Toomey and flip this ultra-competitive Senate seat blue in 2022. But with only a two-point difference, we’ll need serious grassroots resources to compete with Dr. Oz’s self-funded campaign.

Our 67-County Plan

John has said this again and again, but it’s worth repeating: No town is too small, rural, or “red” for us to count out. We’re running a 67-County campaign because every Pennsylvanian deserves someone to fight for them.

Last weekend, John and Gisele went to some of the reddest counties in PA. Turnout was amazing. In Smethport, a town of 1,600 people in a county Trump won 72%-26% in 2020, over 100 people showed up. In Clarion, a town of 5,500 people in a county that Trump won 75%-24% in 2020, 60 people showed up. In Harmony, a town of 1,100 in a county Trump won 65%-33% in 2020, 80 people showed up. And the other two stops in Warren and Venango, counties where Trump won 68%-29% and 70%-28%, respectively, also brought out dozens of folks.

Support for John from red areas isn’t new, though. Last August, for example, our campaign hosted a meet and greet in Mercer County, which Trump won by over 25% in 2020, a county that some Democrats wouldn’t even bother going to. We held an event at a wing joint and had roughly 100 people come out to meet John and see him speak — in Sharon, PA, a town with a population of just 13,000 people.

This proves that John doesn’t have to convince people he’s not like other politicians – they can see it for themselves. With his straight-talking, no-BS style, John defies conventional labels and appeals across party lines. He is the rare candidate with a bold populist record and the proven ability to appeal to independents and voters in Pennsylvania’s reddest and most rural counties.

If we learned anything over the past few years, it’s that Democrats can’t continue to completely cede rural counties to Republicans. For years, in Pennsylvania, it has been said that winning a general election as a Democrat is all about winning Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. If we just run up the margins in urban areas, the thinking goes, then Democrats don’t have to worry about the largely red, rural counties that make up the rest of the state.

Last November showed that margins matter everywhere, even in counties that Democrats are never going to win. Ceding county after county to Republicans is a losing strategy. John has always believed in every county, every vote. And he is not willing to write off any region, any community, any part of Pennsylvania.

In 2018, when John ran on the ticket with Governor Tom Wolf, he traveled the state and talked to voters in every corner— regardless of how red or blue. And with John as his running mate, Governor Wolf won by more than almost a million more votes than he did in 2014. They did it by chipping away at Republican margins in rural counties.

John and Gov. Wolf won Berks County, Beaver County, Cumberland County, Erie County, and Luzerne County, all counties where Democrats have struggled at times in recent years. This notion that rural voters are immovable proved flat-out false.

Most importantly, John doesn’t just wait until election season to show up in rural Pennsylvania. In his first few months as Lieutenant Governor, John traveled to all 67 counties to conduct a listening tour around legalizing marijuana. Whether it’s supporting down ballot local candidates or meeting constituents in every county, Fetterman has consistently shown up to rural counties and built strong relationships with communities on the ground.

Fundraising

Our grassroots campaign has received small-dollar donations from all 50 states + all 67 PA Counties. We’ve had more than 180,000 donors make over 475,000 donations since launching our campaign one year + ten days ago. And our average donation has consistently been under $30 (actually, closer to $20), a number that demonstrates just how much our campaign relies on everyday people like YOU.

But we can’t ignore the millions of dollars being poured into this race every single day.

The GOP and their super PACs have poured over $32.5 million into TV and radio ads. This is shaping up to be the most expensive election in Pennsylvania history.

And just last week, a super PAC supporting one of our Democratic primary opponents, Conor Lamb, announced they are going to raise $8 million to try and help Lamb win the primary election.

As intimidating as it is to look at the amount of money super PACs are funneling into this race, we cannot forget the power of the people. We know that as long as the everyday folks John represents pitch in a few bucks whenever they can, we can be more powerful than self-funded GOP millionaires and the billionaires writing their super PACs six-figure checks.

Conclusion

Democrats cannot afford to lose in Pennsylvania. We have to nominate a candidate who can excite the base and appeal to the unique independent voters of Pennsylvania.

In order to win, Democrats must compete everywhere and meet voters where they are at. In John Fetterman, Democrats have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to turn this Senate seat blue and to have an unabashed champion of the working class represent Pennsylvania in the U.S. Senate.