Editor’s Note: There will be no Daily Brief on Monday, February 21, for Presidents’ Day.
Top of the Agenda
Biden to Conference With NATO Allies as Cease-Fire Violations Mount in Eastern Ukraine
U.S. President Joe Biden will hold a call (NYT) with North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies today to discuss soaring tensions in Eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian government and pro-Russia rebels reported a second straight day of increased shelling (Reuters) in the region. Meanwhile, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is in Germany (NPR), where she will meet with European leaders at the kickoff of the Munich Security Conference.
The United States warned the UN Security Council yesterday that Russia is allegedly planning a full-scale attack (State Dept.) on Ukraine. The U.S. envoy to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said Russia has up to 190,000 troops stationed (Guardian) in and around Ukraine. Top diplomats from the United States and Russia are set to hold a meeting next week.
Analysis
“As the crisis in Ukraine unfolds, the West must not underestimate Russia. It must not bank on narratives inspired by wishful thinking,” the German Marshall Fund of the United States’ Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage write for Foreign Affairs.
“The ultimate question is: What action will Putin take if he doesn’t get any concessions from the West after all these talks? Recognizing [breakaway Ukrainian regions] Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states is one alternative option to a broader military invasion and occupation of Ukraine, albeit one that still entails the potential for military action and could shift the paradigm in the standoff between Moscow and the West,” the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy’s Eugene Chausovsky writes for Foreign Policy.
Pacific Rim
EU Launches WTO Suit Against China Over Tech Licensing
The European Union (EU) sued China (SCMP) at the World Trade Organization (WTO), accusing it of using Chinese domestic courts to skirt intellectual property laws.
Japan: Lab findings reported in a preprint study show that the BA.2 virus, a subvariant of the omicron coronavirus variant, could be as capable of causing severe illness (CNN) as previous variants, including delta.
South and Central Asia
New Zealand, Philippines Snub Myanmar’s Entrance to Trade Pact in Wake of Coup
The Philippines said it won’t support Myanmar’s entrance (AP) into the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a massive Asia-Pacific trade deal that took effect last month, but did not publicly state a reason. Earlier this week, New Zealand reportedly said it will reject Myanmar’s membership over opposition to Myanmar’s military junta.
Draft Nuclear Deal Says Iran Must Halt Enrichment, Release Prisoners Before Sanctions Relief
The draft says Iran must suspend uranium enrichment above 5 percent purity and free Western prisoners while South Korea releases Iranian money frozen in its banks, unnamed diplomats told Reuters. After that, a main phase of sanctions lifting would begin.
Dispute Holds Up $8.5 Billion Fund for South Africa’s Transition Away From Coal
State-owned energy utility Eskom seeks the bulk of the funding (Bloomberg) announced at last year’s UN climate conference, but the Department of Trade, Industry, and Competition called for the money to go toward green hydrogen investments and electric vehicle production.
Poll: In Twelve Leading Countries, Climate Change Seen as Bigger Security Threat Than War
A poll commissioned by the Munich Security Conference found that concerns about global warming, habitat destruction, and extreme weather were the top three risks (Bloomberg) named by residents of twelve countries.
Americas
Ecuador Sets Rules for Abortion in Cases of Rape
Ecuador’s constitutional court ruled last year that abortion is legal in cases of rape. The country’s legislature voted that such abortions will generally be permitted during the first twelve weeks (Guardian) of pregnancy for urban women and sixteen weeks for rural woman. Feminist groups criticized the rules as too restrictive.
Mexico: Authorities took 1,266 migrants (Reuters) into custody within a twenty-four-hour period in an effort to stem illegal migration to the United States. The United Nations’ refugee agency said the number of nationalities of migrants crossing Mexico increased in January.
United States
Justice Department Announces First Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team
Veteran prosecutor Eun Young Choi will head a new team (Bloomberg) that will identify and prosecute the misuse of cryptocurrencies and other digital assets.
