Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
February 16, 2022
Top of the Agenda
Biden Warns Russia Against Starting ‘War of Choice’
In a speech at the White House yesterday, U.S. President Joe Biden pledged to give diplomacy “every chance” (White House) to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine and warned Russia against starting a “war of choice.” The Kremlin said (Moscow Times) it welcomed Biden’s willingness to continue talks.
 
Biden said the United States has not verified reports of Russia’s withdrawal from near Ukraine’s borders, where 150,000 troops are reportedly stationed (WaPo). Meanwhile, Ukraine suggested that Russia was behind a cyberattack (Reuters) on Ukraine’s defense ministry. Moscow denied responsibility.
Analysis
“Listening to [Biden], US tends to see diplomacy as an alternative to intervention. Listening to Putin, Russia tends to see diplomacy as an adjunct to intervention. Two very different strategic cultures,” CFR President Richard Haass tweets.
 
“So far, [Washington and Moscow] have avoided any obvious misreadings of each other. This may stem in part from the length of the crisis, which has allowed each capital to repeatedly telegraph its intentions and capabilities,” the New York Times’s Max Fisher writes.

United States
Study: U.S. Coastal Sea Levels to Rise a Foot by 2050
An increase of a foot or more on average is guaranteed (NYT) regardless of future actions on climate change, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found.
 
In this webinar, CFR’s Alice C. Hill and Matthew Gonser discuss climate resilience strategies.

Pacific Rim
ASEAN Meeting Begins Without Myanmar Representative
Myanmar’s military junta chose not to send an envoy (Diplomat) after the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) said it would only be allowed a “nonpolitical” representative.
 
Hong Kong: Chinese President Xi Jinping called for Hong Kong’s government to “take all necessary measures” (Nikkei) to control the city’s COVID-19 surge, which has overwhelmed hospitals.

South and Central Asia
Indian Tax Authorities Raid Huawei Offices
Officials raided the Chinese tech giant’s offices (PTI) in the cities of Bengaluru, Delhi, and Gurugram as part of a tax evasion probe. Huawei said it complies with tax laws and that it will cooperate with the investigation.
 
Afghanistan: Representatives of the Taliban government met with European Union (EU) envoys in Doha, Qatar, yesterday. The Taliban appealed for humanitarian aid (TOLOnews) for Afghanistan, and the EU representatives voiced concerns about human rights in the country.

Middle East and North Africa
UN Sounds Alarm About Yemen’s Escalating War
More than 650 civilians were killed or injured in January, which is “by far” the most casualties (UN News) for a single month in the last three years of the conflict, a UN humanitarian official said. A lack of aid funding means food rations for eight million people will likely cease in March.
 
Israel: U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and a congressional delegation visit the Israeli parliament today (Haaretz) for talks that are expected to include discussion of the efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal.

Sub-Saharan Africa
France’s Macron to Pitch Changes in Antiterrorism Strategy to Sahel Leaders
At a dinner in Paris tonight, French President Emmanuel Macron will present (Bloomberg) the leaders of Chad, Mauritania, and Niger with a plan to move French forces from coup-stricken Mali to another Sahel country.
 
Africa/Germany: German vaccine manufacturer BioNTech will provide African countries with components (AP) for factories that can create the COVID-19 vaccine it developed with Pfizer. The first factory will be sent to Senegal or Rwanda in the second half of this year.
 
For Foreign Affairs, Prashant Yadav discusses how to make COVID-19 vaccines available to all.

Europe
Europe’s Top Court Rules EU Can Freeze Funds to Countries Over Rule-of-Law Violations
The court ruled that the EU can withhold funding (NYT) from member countries that don’t uphold the rule of law. The decision shot down a lawsuit from Hungary and Poland amid concerns that those countries are drifting away from EU standards.

Americas
Brazil’s Bolsonaro to Meet With Putin
Today’s meeting between Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to focus on commercial ties (Bloomberg). Washington urged Bolsonaro (Miami Herald) to use the meeting to defend “democratic principles.”
 
Chile: The constitutional assembly began formally debating motions (Al Jazeera) for a new constitution. Major topics of concern include creating a unicameral congress, protections for Indigenous territories, and water and property rights.
 
For the Latin America’s Moment blog, Sam Lynch looks at the difficult path ahead for Chile’s constitutional rewrite.
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