Beijing’s harsh tactics for controlling the spread of Covid-19 during the Winter Olympics have shattered some athletes’ dreams and horrified much of the world, but they are life as usual in China. While some cling to the idea that China’s ”zero-tolerance” approach to the pandemic will be loosened after the Games, the only way the government has been successful in suppressing the spread of the coronavirus is through extreme measures. In an article in the National Review, Heritage Visiting Fellow Michael Cunningham writes that Chinese pride and the perceived legitimacy of the government are now tied to keeping the virus at bay at nearly all costs.
Some in the U.S. business and policy communities mistakenly believe that China’s main purpose for maintaining its strict measures has been to ensure that the Olympics could be held in Beijing as scheduled, and that economic concerns will compel the government to relax these measures following the conclusion of the Games. This view contrasts with the expectation of almost everyone in China. Contrary to the international community’s tendency to view the pandemic in economic terms, Beijing sees it mainly through the lens of politics. The Communist Party’s political interests are tied more than those of most governments to keeping Covid case numbers as low as possible.
If China were to relax restrictions, cases would soar, especially given the high transmissibility of the Omicron variant and the low efficacy of China’s domestically produced vaccines — the only ones approved for use in the country. Short of a significant decrease in Covid’s transmissibility and lethality, any fundamental policy change appears unlikely in the near term.
This is especially true in the lead-up to the 20th Communist Party National Congress, set to occur later this year. Many local officials throughout China are seeking promotion and cannot afford to commit any blunders. This will incentivize provincial and municipal leaders throughout the country to maintain tried and tested zero-tolerance policies even if the central authorities do eventually permit some loosening.
This is not to say that China’s strict pandemic policies will remain in place indefinitely. Some virologists recently expressed cautious hope that the worldwide Omicron surge might result in sufficient immunity to move the virus into a manageable endemic phase.
Nevertheless, it’s too early to tell whether that will be the case. The pandemic could just as easily continue to rage, with new variants further prolonging the process. While most hope for a speedy end to the pandemic, they should be prepared for it to continue and for Beijing’s draconian approach to persist.
