Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
February 14, 2022
Top of the Agenda
Germany’s Scholz Visits Kyiv Amid Warnings That Russian Will Move on Ukraine
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is in Kyiv today (DW) for talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and will travel to Moscow tomorrow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. After the White House said on Friday that Russia could invade Ukraine at any moment, Russia’s foreign minister recommended to Putin today that Moscow “continue and increase” dialogue (Moscow Times) with Western countries.
 
As diplomatic efforts to ease the tensions continue, the finance ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) countries warned that any further Russian military action against Ukraine will be met with “massive and immediate” consequences (HM Treasury) for Russia’s economy. U.S. President Joe Biden spoke with Putin and Zelensky separately (WaPo) over the weekend, and diplomats and citizens of Western countries have begun leaving Kyiv in recent days.
Analysis
“Most of the Russia-Ukraine discussion [is] premised on there either being an armed intervention of some scale or a diplomatic breakthru. We should also prepare for a 3rd possibility: an extended crisis in which a significant [number] of Russian forces stay parked on Ukraine’s borders,” CFR President Richard Haass tweets.

“The external threat to Ukraine is exacerbating Zelensky’s domestic problems, and vice versa. The result is that the president has become an inconvenient figure for both East and West,” journalist Konstantin Skorkin writes for the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Pacific Rim
U.S., Japan, South Korea Affirm Openness to Talks With North Korea
During a meeting in Hawaii, the foreign ministers of the United States, Japan, and South Korea said their governments are committed to achieving complete denuclearization (Kyodo) on the Korean Peninsula.
 
For the Asia Unbound blog, CFR’s Scott A. Snyder discusses North Korea’s quest to become a powerful nuclear state.
 
Japan: For the first time, the government will create guidelines to help companies detect human rights violations in their supply chains, Nikkei reported.

South and Central Asia
India Bans Fifty-Four Chinese Smartphone Apps Deemed Security Threats
Tech companies such as Google have been ordered to block users (Economic Times) from installing the apps, which were banned for transferring users’ data to foreign servers. Some of the apps are rebranded versions of apps that India banned previously.
 
Afghanistan: Demonstrators in Kabul protested the Biden administration’s decision (AP) to use $3.5 billion in frozen Afghan assets to compensate victims of the 9/11 attacks. The move is illegal, a former financial advisor to Afghanistan’s previous, U.S.-backed government said.

Middle East and North Africa
Tunisians Protest President’s Judicial Overhaul
In a decree published yesterday, Tunisian President Kais Saied replaced a judicial watchdog (AFP) and gave himself the power to dismiss any judge. Some two thousand protesters rallied in Tunis in support of an independent judiciary.
 
Saudi Arabia: The country will transfer almost $80 billion worth of shares (AP) of national oil company Aramco, or 4 percent of the company’s stock, to a sovereign wealth fund. The stock will reportedly go toward helping diversify the country’s economy away from oil.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Nigerian Rights Group Sues for Access to Government Agreement With Twitter
The Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project seeks a copy of the agreement (Reuters) to ensure it does not put free expression at risk. Following a six-month ban, Twitter was unblocked in Nigeria last month after the company made a deal with the government.
 
Botswana: Authorities will issue a combination of fines and prison sentences (News24) to citizens returning to the country who refuse to get vaccinated against COVID-19.

Europe
Turkey’s Erdogan Visits UAE as Ties Deepen
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) today is the second between leaders of the two countries in three months. A spokesperson for the Turkish presidency said the visit is expected to result in a letter of intent (Bloomberg) about defense industry cooperation.

Americas
U.S. Suspends Imports of Mexican Avocados Over Security Threat
The suspension came after a health inspector in the Mexican state of Michoacan received a threatening phone call (Reuters).
 
U.S./Canada: The Ambassador Bridge border crossing reopened to traffic (CBC) yesterday after Canadian police helped clear protesters. About a quarter of U.S.-Canada trade moves across the bridge.
 
CFR’s Edward Alden lays out what to know about Canada’s “Freedom Convoy” protests.

United States
Four Years After Parkland Shooting, Gun Violence in Schools Reaches New Peak
U.S. schools witnessed at least 136 shootings between August 31 and December 1, according to watchdog group Everytown for Gun Safety. That is nearly four times the average (USA Today) for that period since the group began its tallies in 2013.
 
This Backgrounder examines U.S. gun control policy in a global context.
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