U.S. military personnel take part in a ceremony during a visit of the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the Mihail Kogalniceanu Military Base on February 11, 2022 in Mihail Kogalniceanu, Romania. (Andrei Pungovschi/Getty Images)

As Russia’s escalating military preparations indicate an imminent attack on Ukraine, the U.S. and NATO allies face the most serious challenge to European security in decades. To examine what the U.S. and NATO can do to counter Russian aggression and avert a deeper crisis, Hudson's Kenneth Weinstein was joined by Congressman Jason Crow (D-CO), a decorated Army Ranger who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and now serves on the House Armed Services Committee and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. See Congressman Crow's key quotes below, and join us in welcoming Jesse J. Knight, Jr. to Hudson's Board of Trustees.

Averting Crisis in Ukraine

Key quotes from Congressman Jason Crow at the Hudson event, "Lessons from the Ukraine Crisis with Rep. Jason Crow"

1. Supporting a Long-Term Resistance in Ukraine

If Putin decides on a full offensive blitz into Kyiv, it's possible that the capital could fall within a matter of days. There could be a missile bombardment followed by long-range bomber bombardment on major Kyiv facilities and then an invasion basically from the north. They put substantial combat power in Belarus, that is likely to be the force that would take Kyiv, given its proximity.

We have to change the cost calculus. We have to make this much more costly to Putin in very short order. The modernization of the Ukraine military has happened very rapidly over the last couple of years, but they're still not a NATO type of force. Our ability to provide some real force multipliers in the form of intelligence, cyber defense, and lethal defensive munitions to increase that cost are really important. Our ability to assist a long-term Ukrainian resistance is going to depend on how many of those forces survive the conventional assault, how much of the weapons are able to survive, and then where we train forces and how we help facilitate movement of additional equipment in the months and years to come.

If Russia does a full large-scale invasion, it will substantially tie them up. I think Putin is miscalculating the costs both near-term and long-term and in terms of his own political capital back home. If a large-scale invasion happens, there's going to be tens of thousands of Ukrainians filming it live and posting YouTube videos of this happening.

2. Sitting on the Sidelines Isn't an Option

Some people might say, "Why should we do this?" I get this back home, too. My response is several fold. Number one, this is just an outright attempt by an autocrat to take by force a free and democratic sovereign nation. As a precedent, we should not allow that to happen, let alone one who is a partner of ours. Number two, stability matters for the global economy, for Europe, and our trading partners. And number three, there is this issue of others looking at what we do here, too. China is looking at how we respond and whether or not they could attack Taiwan in the next couple of years with limited long-term consequences.

3. Long-Term Support Sends a Signal to China

This will not be not fast and easy. If you're China and others doing an assessment, you're thinking to yourself, "We're playing the long game here. We can take short-term pain for that long-term gain. We'll just ride it out." But if they understand that the free world will not allow that to happen and that we have a long-term commitment to other free and democratic nations that continue to fight and resist, that does substantially change their calculus in terms of the long-term cost benefit analysis here.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.

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