Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
February 8, 2022
Top of the Agenda
U.S. Official: Deal ‘In Sight’ as Iran Nuclear Deal Talks Resume
Negotiators resume talks in Vienna today (Al-Monitor) over a possible return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said the talks have made “significant progress,” while a U.S. State Department spokesperson said a deal is “in sight” (AFP) but that time is running out to negotiate.
 
Washington continues to support talks despite believing that a new agreement would leave Iran capable of amassing enough nuclear fuel for a bomb in less than twelve months, a shorter time frame than allowed in the previous deal, the Wall Street Journal reported. On Friday, the United States restored some sanctions waivers (AP) for Iran’s civilian nuclear activities that the Donald Trump administration rescinded in 2020. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian praised the restoration of waivers, but said it is “not enough.”
Analysis
Iran’s gains in knowledge are irreversible, meaning that the old accord won’t be as strong a barrier to the bomb as it was before Trump tore it up, and getting Tehran to agree to strengthen the deal over time will be difficult,” Harvard University’s Matthew Bunn writes for Foreign Affairs

“In a world of increasing geopolitical rivalry—over Ukraine, Taiwan and more—the big powers have at least managed to co-operate in the diplomatic effort to contain Iran’s nuclear programme,” the Economist writes.

Pacific Rim
U.S. to Lift Trump-Era Steel Tariffs on Japan Starting April 1
Washington will roll back (Nikkei) part of an additional 25 percent tariff that was imposed under U.S. President Trump in 2018.
 
This Backgrounder explains the impacts of tariffs.
 
New Zealand: A convoy of protesters opposed to COVID-19 vaccine mandates arrived in the capital (New Zealand Herald), Wellington, where they blocked streets around Parliament and said they intend to stay for days.

South and Central Asia
Dispute Over Islamic Headscarves in Indian Schools Leads to Court Case, Protests
Schools in Karnataka State closed for three days (Indian Express) due to protests over schools that banned the wearing of Islamic headscarves. A state court began hearings for a petition against the ban today.
 
Afghanistan: The U.S. State Department offered up to $10 million (Al Jazeera) for information on Sanaullah Ghafari, the leader of the Afghanistan affiliate of the self-declared Islamic State, the Islamic State in Khorasan.

Middle East and North Africa
Israeli Government Begins Inquiry Into Police Use of Spyware Against Officials, Activists
Without a court order, Israeli police used NSO Group’s Pegasus spyware (Haaretz) to surveil government employees and associates of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as protest leaders and journalists, according to a report by Calcalist.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Report: Ethiopia Used Turkish-Made Drone in Strike That Killed Dozens of Civilians
Ethiopian government forces used the drone in a January 7 strike that killed fifty-nine people, the Washington Post reported. Documents provided by aid organizations say more than three hundred civilians have been killed by drones in Ethiopia since September. The government is the only side in Ethiopia’s conflict known to have access to drones.
 
For Foreign Affairs, Terrence Lyons argues that the United States needs to help end the war in Ethiopia.
 
Somaliland/Taiwan: Taiwan will host a delegation (Reuters) from Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland this week. Somaliland and Taiwan each set up a representative office in the other’s capital in 2020.

Europe
Biden: No Nord Stream 2 if Russian Tanks, Troops Cross Border to Ukraine
“[The United States] will bring an end” (CNN) to the gas pipeline in such an event, U.S. President Joe Biden said after meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Scholz said Germany will closely coordinate with the United States but did not mention the pipeline by name.
 
France/Russia/Ukraine: French President Emmanuel Macron is in Kyiv for talks today (FT) after meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday. French officials said Macron and Putin discussed the withdrawal of Russian troops participating in exercises in Belarus.
 
This In Brief looks at how the militaries of Russia and Ukraine stack up.

Americas
Washington Declassifies Travel Sanctions on Former Honduran President
The United States banned (Reuters) former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez from entering the country last year due to reported corruption, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.
 
Argentina/Barbados: Argentine President Alberto Fernandez meets with Barbadian Prime Minister Mia Mottley (MercoPress) today to discuss climate change.

United States
First Lady: Proposal for Free Community College Is Off Table
First Lady Jill Biden, who championed an effort (NYT) to include two free years of community college in the latest pandemic recovery legislation, told community college leaders that the proposal was cut in compromises over the bill.
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