New York By The Numbers: Monthly Economic and Fiscal Outlook


** New York by the Numbers
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** Monthly Economic and Fiscal Outlook
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By NYC Comptroller Brad Lander
Bureau of Budget | Andrew McWilliam, Director of Economic Research
Photo Credit: Songquan Deng/Shutterstock
Click here to read this newsletter on the Comptroller's website. ([link removed])


** No. 62 - February 7th, 2022
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** A Message from the Comptroller
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Dear New Yorkers,

As we round the corner on the Omicron wave, there are many signs of a continuing economic recovery in NYC. Job creation is up and NYC’s unemployment rate is trending down, though still higher than the national rate. Despite a dip between the holidays and the surge in infections, security card and mobility data show New Yorkers are once again returning to offices.

Our spotlight this month highlights one piece of good news for that recovery and NYC’s FY23 budget: property values have recovered much more strongly than anticipated, and overall are now above pre-pandemic values.

While there’s reason to be optimistic about our city’s overall economy, there are serious questions about whether all New Yorkers will benefit. Persistent inflation represents a challenge for low-wage workers. Rental inventory has dropped below pre-pandemic lows, and asking rents are rising rapidly just as the eviction moratorium that has kept many in their homes expired.

We’ll be watching the numbers closely over the coming months, with a keen eye on whether it will be an inclusive recovery shared across all NYC neighborhoods.

Sincerely,

Brad Lander


** The U.S. Economy
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* Real US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 6.9% (preliminary) in the fourth quarter of 2021, boosted by the rebuilding of business inventories. Over the entire year, GDP grew at 5.7%, a pace almost entirely attributable to growth in consumption. Economic growth in 2021 was the fastest since 1984.
* Also highest in decades were December’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI), (+7.0% year over year), core CPI (+5.5%), headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index (+5.8%), and the core PCE price index (+4.9%). (Core indexes exclude prices of food and energy, which tend to me more volatile).
* Despite the Omicron wave total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 467,000 in January, relatively close to the average monthly gain of 555,000 in 2021. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.0% and private-sector average hourly earnings rose 5.7% over the year.
* Other indicators reaffirmed the strength of labor income. In the last quarter of 2021, wages and salaries expanded at an annual rate of 9.8%. In December 2021, the Employment Cost Index for civilian workers grew 4.0% over the year, the fastest growth in 20 years.
* “With inflation well above 2% and a strong labor market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.” With these words, on January 26, the Federal Open Market Committee signaled that it could raise interest rates at its next meeting in March. The Comptroller’s Office expectation is currently for one 25-basis points increase per quarter in 2022.
* Furthermore, the Fed will end the purchase of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities in early March and published principles for “significantly” reducing its balance sheet, which will tighten financial conditions above and beyond the rate increases.


** Labor Markets
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* The NYC labor market continued to improve in December 2021, but private sector employment remained 10% below the pre-pandemic job peak reached in February 2020.
* Overall, the City has regained 509,000 of the 922,000 private sector jobs lost in March and April 2020. Nearly 60% of these gains were in Accommodation and Food Services, Health Care and Social Assistance, and Retail Trade. Despite this improvement, Accommodation and Food Services employment remained 33% below pre-pandemic levels (Table 1).


** Table 1: Seasonally Adjusted NYC Private Employment, by Industry ('000s)
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Seasonally Adjusted NYC Employment December 2021 Change From
Industry: Feb. ’20 Apr. ’20 Nov. ’21 Dec. ’21 Feb. ’20 Apr. ’20 Nov. ’21
Total Private 4,095 3,173 3,668 3,682 -413 509 15
Financial Activities 487 469 457 457 -30 -12 0
Information 229 205 220 222 -7 16 2
Professional and Business Services 778 688 732 738 -40 50 6
Educational Services 256 230 233 232 -24 2 -1
Health Care and Social Assistance 819 711 800 799 -21 88 -1
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 96 52 74 77 -18 26 4
Accommodation and Food Services 373 108 249 251 -122 143 2
Other Services 195 130 162 161 -34 32 0
Retail Trade 345 231 299 301 -44 71 2
Wholesale Trade 139 109 122 123 -17 14 1
Transportation and Warehousing 135 99 120 121 -14 22 1
Construction 162 88 134 132 -30 44 -2
Manufacturing 65 39 53 53 -12 14 1
SOURCE: NY DOL, private employment seasonally adjusted by NYC OMB
* New York City’s unemployment rate dropped to 8.8% in December 2021, down from 9.0% in November, and continuing its descent from the peak of 20.0% in May 2020 (Chart 1).
* Average hourly earnings in NYC increased 4.9% in 2021, the fastest pace since 2008 (not shown). Average weekly hours also increased in 2021, boosting the annual growth of average weekly earnings to 5.4% (source: NY Dept. of Labor).


** Chart 1
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SOURCE: NY DOL, private employment seasonally adjusted by NYC OMB
* Initial New York City unemployment insurance claims rose to 26,690 in December 2021, up from 21,730 in November, but remain well below the 84,695 in December 2020 (Chart 2), and the pre-pandemic 36,279 of December 2019 (not shown).


** Chart 2
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SOURCE: NY DOL


** Real Estate Markets
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* Data from Douglas Elliman show the higher-end brokered Manhattan apartment market continued to strengthen in December. Average asking rents rose to $72.00 per square foot, up from $71.24 in November, and the vacancy rate fell to 1.7% (Table 2).
* New leases were flat at around 3,300, but available inventory fell to 4,753, from 6,187 in November.


** Table 2: Douglas Elliman Rental Matrix, Trends in High-End Residential Apartment Rentals
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Year Month Rental Price per Sqft. # New Leases Listing Inventory Vacancy Rate
2020 March $70.10 2,638 4,258 2.13%
April $74.20 1,407 4,714 2.42%
May $67.82 2,190 7,420 2.88%
June $65.00 3,171 10,789 3.67%
July $64.39 4,949 13,117 4.33%
August $62.97 4,990 15,025 5.10%
September $62.47 5,018 15,923 5.75%
October $61.38 5,641 16,145 6.14%
November $59.05 4,015 15,130 6.14%
December $62.12 5,459 13,718 5.52%
2021 January $62.33 6,255 12,447 5.33%
February $60.54 6,561 23,983* 11.79%*
March $62.25 4,986 19,633 11.25%
April $62.34 9,087 20,743 11.60%
May $64.94 9,491 19,025 7.59%
June $64.97 9,642 11,853 6.69%
July $67.73 7,656 11,794 6.07%
August $68.13 8,201 8,362 3.23%
September $70.31 5,241 6,761 2.34%
October $70.62 4,395 6,755 2.11%
November $71.24 3,299 6,187 2.09%
December $72.00 3,335 4,753 1.70%
SOURCE: Elliman Report, December 2021, Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens Rentals.
*NOTE: 2021 data reflect expanded collection of listing data
* December data from Streeteasy.com show the number of apartments available for rent citywide fell to 24,413, down from 27,992 in November (Chart 3). Apartment inventories have declined steadily across 16 months from a peak of over 75,000 in August 2020, and are below pre-pandemic levels.
* Median asking rents rose to $2,800 in December, up from $2,700 in November, and approaching the pre-pandemic average of nearly $2,900 in December 2019.


** Chart 3
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SOURCE: Streeteasy.com
* CoStar reports roughly 124 million square feet of office space is available for lease in New York City as of February 1^st, 2022, showing little change from the beginning of the year (Chart 4).
* Average asking rents held steady at roughly $65 per square foot as of February 1^st, unchanged from both January 1^st and from the third quarter of 2021. CoStar predicts a recovery to pre-pandemic rents of $69 per square foot in the second quarter of 2023.


** Chart 4
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SOURCE: CoStar


** Return to Office
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* The latest security card data from Kastle Systems show New York City area office occupancy rose to 25.8% the week ending Wednesday, February 2^nd, up from a recent low of 10.6% the week of December 29^th, but still well below the recent peak of 35% the week of November 10^th (Chart 5).


** Chart 5
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SOURCE: Kastle Systems, weekdays excluding Federal holidays through February 2nd 2022
* The latest Google mobility data show time spent at New York City workplaces rebounded quickly, but not fully, from the dramatic year-end drop, which coincided with the holidays and the peak of the Omicron wave. As of January 26^th, time spent at workplaces was down 29% from pre-pandemic levels, compared to being down just 24% in mid-December (Chart 6).


** Chart 6
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SOURCE: GPS mobility data indexed to 1/3/2020 to 2/6/2020, from Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports.
* December data from the Current Population Survey show the share of New Yorkers working from home due to COVID fell to 21.8%, down from 23.1% in November, and the lowest of the pandemic period despite a December surge in COVID cases (Chart 7).


** Chart 7
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SOURCE: Current Population Survey, COVID Supplement
* The Omicron surge disrupted a long stretch of steady gains in weekday subway ridership, as average volume fell to 2.48 million in January, averaging 46% of pre-pandemic levels (Chart 8).
* Volumes declined across all MTA systems, as average weekday ridership in January fell to 34% of pre-pandemic levels on Metro-North and to 39% on the Long Island Railroad.


** Chart 8
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SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.
NOTE: Excludes federal holidays.


** Business and Tourism
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* Broadway revenue fell steadily through January to $15 million the week of January 30^th (Table 3). January is typically Broadway’s slowest month.
* Attendance fell to 139,584, and the number of shows fell to just 19, down from a recent high of 33 in late November.


** Table 3: Broadway Performance Metrics
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Week Ending Revenue Attendance % Capacity Performances Shows
10/24/2021 $22,164,602 176,083 85% 174 26
10/31/2021 $19,663,438 168,169 78% 183 27
11/7/2021 $22,854,595 193,303 82% 207 30
11/14/2021 $25,565,641 214,681 86% 214 31
11/21/2021 $25,076,830 212,819 80% 227 32
11/28/2021 $32,543,570 238,354 83% 245 33
12/5/2021 $26,214,735 210,795 83% 217 29
12/12/2021 $30,533,809 240,602 85% 235 32
12/19/2021 $22,511,627 184,227 83% 191 31
12/26/2021 $14,069,739 100,956 75% 118 22
1/2/2022 $26,306,652 179,036 74% 201 20
1/9/2022 $18,251,734 156,986 62% 204 27
1/16/2022 $18,496,689 162,566 66% 196 25
1/23/2022 $16,949,289 152,135 75% 159 21
1/30/2022 $15,038,225 139,584 74% 147 19
SOURCE: The Broadway League
* Data from OpenTable show New York City restaurant reservations for the week ending February 1^st are down 63% from pre-pandemic levels, and down over 20 percentage points from late November, due to elevated COVID case numbers and winter weather (Chart 9).


** Chart 9
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SOURCE: OpenTable.com
* The number of average daily visitors to Times Square has climbed for four consecutive months, reaching 244,194 in December, 72% of pre-pandemic levels (Chart 10).


** Chart 10
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SOURCE: Times Square Alliance, Monthly Indicator Reports.
* Average daily yellow taxi rides fell 10% in December to 103,585, less than half the 220,786 daily rides recorded in December 2019 (Chart 11).
* Daily volume for Uber and Lyft also dropped in December, falling 3% to 517,884 trips per day.


** Chart 11
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SOURCE: New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission, Monthly Data Reports.


** City Finances
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* The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $7.40 billion as of Tuesday, February 1^st. At the same time last year, the City had $10.11 billion (Chart 12).
* Lower property tax collections and payment of payroll tax in January 2022, that had been deferred under the CARES Act between April and December 2020, contributed to the decline.
* The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the first quarter of FY 2022 and projections for cash balances through March 31^st, 2022, are available here ([link removed]) .


** Chart 12
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SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller


**
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** Spotlight
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** The Rebound in New York City’s Tentative FY23 Property Tax Roll
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The New York City Department of Finance (NYC DOF) recently released its preliminary report for City property values, which is used to determine property taxes due in Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 starting this coming July.[1] ([link removed]) Following an unprecedented 5.6% decline in the previous year due to the pandemic, including a 17.4% drop in commercial values, NYC DOF’s preliminary estimates showed that the value of New York City real estate is $1.40 trillion in FY 2023, 2.1% higher than the pre-pandemic value of $1.37 trillion in FY 2021 (final values will be published in May). Growth was fueled by strong gains among small residential properties and significant rebounds in apartment and commercial values.

The Comptroller’s Office estimates that growth in market values will boost property tax collections in FY 2023 by more than $1 billion above the latest budget forecast (assuming the overall tax rate remains unchanged) and will improve the outlook for the remainder of the financial plan.

Market values for Class 1 properties (1-3 family homes) fared significantly better than other property types during the pandemic and their market values now exceed pre-pandemic levels by almost 8% (Chart S.1).


** Chart S.1

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SOURCE: NYC DOF

In contrast, market values for Class 2 properties, which include, coops, condos and apartment buildings, declined 8.2% in FY 2022 but have returned to pre-pandemic levels.[2] ([link removed]) Notably, apartment vacancies soared to historic highs and rents tumbled in an unprecedented manner during the height of the pandemic, but the apartment market has since staged a remarkable recovery.

Market values for Class 4 properties, including many different types of commercial property, were most impacted by the pandemic, declining by 17.4% in FY 2022. The reopening of the economy has since contributed to an 11.7% rebound in market values in FY 2023, but commercial properties remain 8% below FY 2021 values.

As shown in Table S.1, the current value of office buildings, the largest component of Class 4, is 93.0% of pre-pandemic levels. While this may seem high given that office workers are still largely working from home, many office tenants are bound by long-term lease commitments and continued to pay rent during the pandemic. Furthermore, the NYC DOF valuation methodology capitalizes estimated current income while the long-term impact of increased remote work usage will become more apparent as leases come up for renewal. Based on office market data provided by Cushman and Wakefield, however, Class B and C office properties have been disproportionally affected by higher direct vacancy rates, while NYC DOF values suggest their recovery is roughly comparable with that of Class A and trophy office buildings.

Despite gains over the last year, market values for stores and hotels remain significantly lower than their pre-pandemic values. Market values for retail stores began to weaken even before the pandemic as the shift to e-commerce caused demand for storefronts to wane. The same trend caused the demand for warehouse space to soar.

Among city property types, hotels experienced the worst impacts of the pandemic with values falling nearly 24% in FY 2022, after properties were almost entirely shut in the spring and summer of 2020. Since then, hotel room demand and revenues have rebounded, based on data collected before the recent surge in the Omicron variant, contributing to the 5.3% increase in market values in FY 2023.


** Table S.1: Class 4 Market Values by Select Property Type ($Billions)
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Building Type FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2023
Annual
Growth FY 2023 as a
Fraction of
FY 2021
OFFICE BUILDINGS: $172.4 $143.7 $160.4 11.6% 93.0%
Class A $50.3 $42.0 $46.9 11.5% 93.1%
Class B $35.6 $29.1 $33.0 13.8% 92.7%
Trophy $27.9 $25.1 $26.7 6.4% 95.8%
Other Office $58.5 $47.5 $53.7 13.2% 91.8%
RETAIL $63.8 $50.2 $56.2 12.0% 88.1%
WAREHOUSES $9.8 $8.2 $9.8 20.3% 100.5%
HOTELS $32.7 $25.0 $26.3 5.3% 80.4%

SOURCE: NYC DOF

The geographic distribution of property types helps in explaining how market values in the City’s boroughs changed for FY 2023 (Chart S.2). In Manhattan, which has the highest concentration of commercial properties, rentals, condos and coops, the recovery remains incomplete. Outside of Manhattan, the market performance of Class 1 properties propelled values above pre-pandemic levels.


** Chart S.2
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SOURCE: NYC DOF

[1] ([link removed]) Market values for Condos and Coops, as determined by NYC DOF per statutory requirements, are based on comparable rental buildings.

[2] ([link removed]) Market values for FY 2023 are based on data stretching back to 2020, causing a lag between the market conditions that exist when bills are actually due and the market conditions that formed the basis for determining those bills. Additionally, the tentative roll is subject to change pending appeals to market valuations.


** Contributors
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The Comptroller thanks the following members of the Bureau of Budget for their contributions to this newsletter: Eng-Kai Tan, Bureau Chief - Budget; Steven Giachetti, Director of Revenues; Irina Livshits, Chief, Fiscal Analysis Division; Tammy Gamerman, Director of Budget Research; Manny Kwan, Assistant Budget Chief; Steve Corson, Senior Research Analyst; Selçuk Eren, Senior Economist; Marcia Murphy, Senior Economist; Orlando Vasquez, Economist.

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