Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
February 7, 2022
Top of the Agenda
Talks in Moscow, Washington Mark Latest Diplomatic Push on Ukraine
French President Emmanuel Macron meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin (WaPo) in Moscow today, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington. Both sets of talks will weigh possible avenues to avoid a war in Ukraine, though a Kremlin spokesperson warned not to expect “decisive breakthroughs” (AFP).
 
Macron will reportedly explore steps (NYT) within the framework of the 2015 Minsk agreement that secured a cease-fire in eastern Ukraine, while Moscow continues to mull its response to Washington’s latest communication on its security demands. Separately, the U.S.-European Union Energy Council is expected to announce today that it is preparing to address any risks (Bloomberg) to European gas supplies amid the tensions with Russia.
Analysis
“Until Russia, the United States, Europe, and the states stuck in between them reach a consensus on a revised regional order, post-Soviet Eurasia will remain a source of instability and conflict,” the RAND Corporation’s Samuel Charap writes for Foreign Affairs.
 
“For Mr. Macron the chance to lead the effort to create a new European security architecture has placed him front and center on perhaps the biggest stage of his presidency, just two months before elections,” the New York Times’ Roger Cohen and Andrew E. Kramer write.
 
This In Brief visualizes the military imbalance between Russia and Ukraine.

Pacific Rim
Chinese Tennis Player Calls Concern Over Her Disappearance a ‘Huge Misunderstanding’
Peng Shuai gave a carefully managed interview (WaPo) to French sports outlet L’Équipe, saying she “never said anyone had sexually assaulted me” and announcing her retirement from tennis. Peng disappeared from public in November after accusing a former Chinese official of pressuring her into sex.
 
North Korea: A UN report alleged that North Korea has stolen (AP) hundreds of millions of dollars worth of cryptocurrency from exchanges and investment firms in Asia, Europe, and North America to fund its nuclear program. 
 
This Backgrounder examines North Korea’s cyberwarfare and other military capabilities.

South and Central Asia
Pakistan Condemns Attacks by Terrorists in Afghanistan
Pakistan publicly condemned the use of Afghan soil (Business Recorder) for terrorism, denouncing the militant group Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. The statement came after Pakistan’s military said five Pakistani soldiers at a border post were killed by militants firing from Afghanistan.
 
India: The Committee to Protect Journalists’ Asia director called for the immediate release of Kashmir Walla editor Fahad Shah and said his arrest in India-administered Kashmir on Friday showed “utter disregard for press freedom” (NYT). Shah’s website had covered a deadly police raid a few days earlier.
 
For Foreign Affairs, Shah writes that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has stoked strife in Kashmir.

Middle East and North Africa
Boycotts, Candidate Suspension Throw Iraqi Presidential Selection Into Doubt
At least three blocs are boycotting parliament’s vote (AFP) for president today after Iraq’s Supreme Court suspended front-runner candidate Hoshyar Zebari.
 
Tunisia: President Kais Saied suspended a council (Al Jazeera) that oversees the country’s judiciary. After judges rejected the decision, police were dispatched to block entry to the council’s building.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Cyclone in Madagascar Displaces Tens of Thousands
At least ten people have been killed (BBC) and almost fifty thousand displaced due to Cyclone Batsirai.
 
Germany/Mali: Germany’s defense minister said she is “skeptical” (DW, Reuters) that 1,300 German military personnel will remain in Mali, where the military junta is becoming increasingly intolerant of international peacekeepers.

Europe
Azerbaijan Releases Eight Armenian Prisoners
The step aimed to facilitate (Reuters) France and the European Union’s efforts to mediate the border conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the European Council president tweeted.

Americas
Argentina Joins China’s BRI
The announcement, made while Argentine President Alberto Fernandez visited Beijing, is expected to pave the way (Buenos Aires Times) for some $23 billion worth of Chinese investment in Argentina via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
 
Canada: The capital city of Ottawa declared a state of emergency (CBC) over unrest caused by protests against COVID-19 restrictions.

United States
Republican Party Declares Capitol Riot ‘Legitimate Political Discourse’
The declaration came in a resolution made at the winter meeting of the Republican National Committee, which also censured two party members (NYT) for speaking out against the attack on the U.S. Capitol.
 
In January 2021, CFR’s Bruce Hoffman argued that the attack should be considered domestic terrorism.
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