From Hudson Institute Weekend Reads <[email protected]>
Subject A Pivotal Partnership? How Azerbaijan Can Help the US Contain Russia and Iran
Date February 5, 2022 12:00 PM
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The Azerbaijani flag is displayed on November 28, 2020 in Baku, Azerbaijan. (Aziz Karimov/Getty Images)

Azerbaijan has presided over a tectonic shift in Eurasia, serving as a counterbalance to Iran while slipping out of Moscow’s bear hug more adeptly than any other post-Soviet state. In his latest essay [[link removed]], Dr. Michael Doran [[link removed]] argues that Washington must partner with countries that are willing and able to do the hard work of containing our adversaries, and that Azerbaijan could provide a crucial xxxxxx against Russia and Iran.

See below for key takeaways, and learn more about the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East [[link removed]], a new Hudson initiative led by Doran dedicated to bolstering American interests and allies in this pivotal region so that the U.S. can prevail in the new era of great power competition.

Read the Essay [[link removed]]

Key Takeaways

From Michael Doran's article, " Azerbaijan in the Struggle for Eurasia [[link removed]]" in the journal Baku Dialogues.

1. Azerbaijan's Location is a Strategic Asset

Counterbalancing Russia is a primary duty of the United States, and the mere placement of Azerbaijan on the map makes it a crucial partner in that effort. The benefits of partnership extend well beyond Azerbaijan’s immediate neighborhood, the South Caucasus. The country is the sole gateway to the West of the former Soviet states of Central Asia.

2. Azerbaijan Prioritizes Independence from Russia

The Azerbaijanis have consistently made independence from Russia their national priority. The risks of pursuing such a goal have been high—as the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 and of Ukraine in 2014 demonstrate. Through [a] policy of low-key defense diversification, Azerbaijan managed to build a military that became entirely independent of Russia and trained to a NATO standard. No post-Soviet state has proved as adept as Azerbaijan at slipping free from Moscow’s bear hug.

3. Israel's Energy and Military Ties to Baku Run Deep

Israel’s ties to Baku are long and deep, and they include strategic cooperation, with Israel receiving around 40 percent of its oil from Azerbaijan, to which it sells high-end military equipment, including some of the weapons and defensive systems that played a major role in Azerbaijan’s recent military victory.

The Iranians, for their part, have long assumed that Azerbaijan is assisting Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, in its covert war against their nuclear program. In 2012, Mossad (presumably) assassinated Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, an Iranian nuclear scientist. In response, Iranian officials lodged a formal protest with the Azerbaijani ambassador in Tehran. Was the protest based on solid information, or were the Iranians simply leaping to conclusions? We may never know for sure, but even the uncertainty surrounding the episode speaks volumes about just how unnerving Iran’s leaders find Azerbaijan.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.

Read the Essay [[link removed]] Go Deeper

Russia Is Teaching a Master Class in ‘Decision-Centric' Warfare [[link removed]]

Instead of wringing their hands at Russia’s aggression, U.S. policymakers should learn from Vladimir Putin’s example, writes Bryan Clark [[link removed]] and Dan Patt [[link removed]] in Defense One. By mobilizing threats in multiple domains, the Russian government built an array of options that U.S. and allied leaders are hard-pressed to counter—while also offering the U.S. military an excellent case study in “ decision-centric warfare. [[link removed]] ”

Read [[link removed]]

Counterbalance | Ep. 33: Azerbaijan and America's Russia Strategy [[link removed]]

As Russia threatens war with Ukraine, the U.S. faces dual challenges in meeting the responsibilities of global leadership and respecting an electorate that has grown weary of far-flung military engagements. On Counterbalance, Michael Doran [[link removed]] examines how Azerbaijan, in exchange for diplomatic support, could help the United States contain Russia.

Listen [[link removed]]

How the United States Can Help Defend Ukraine [[link removed]]

The United States and its allies are scrambling to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine without acceding to Vladimir Putin’s impossible demands. Former Commanding General of the United States Army Europe Ben Hodges joined Michael Doran [[link removed]] to discuss what measures can be taken to protect Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity.

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