Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
February 2, 2022
Top of the Agenda
Thwarted Attack on Guinea-Bissau’s President Sparks Worries of Coup Contagion
President Umaro Sissoco Embalo said he survived an attempted coup (Reuters) after hours of gunfire near the presidential palace left six people dead yesterday. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) said it is following the situation with “grave concern,” while UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres denounced “a terrible multiplication of coups.” Three ECOWAS members—Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Mali—have witnessed military takeovers (Al Jazeera) in the last eighteen months.
 
Embalo said the attacks against him could be linked to the government’s efforts to stop drug trafficking; Guinea-Bissau is a major transit hub for drugs coming from Latin America to Europe. It has experienced at least four successful coups (NYT) since it gained independence from Portugal forty-eight years ago.
Analysis
“Attacks from Islamist insurgencies notwithstanding, many West African countries remain politically weak and susceptible to sporadic lawlessness—incentives for military intervention,” CFR’s Ebenezer Obadare writes for the Africa in Transition blog.

“When added to successful coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Chad in the past year, there is no doubt that West African leaders are nervously looking over their shoulders,” Verisk Maplecroft’s Eric Humphery-Smith tells Reuters.

Europe
Putin Says He Hopes ‘Dialogue Will Be Continued’ on Ukraine
In his first public comments on the Ukraine crisis since December, Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled that he is open to further diplomacy (NYT) and repeated an accusation that the United States is encouraging war.
 
For Project Syndicate, CFR President Richard Haass discusses Putin’s Ukraine quagmire.
 
Poland/UK/Ukraine: Ukraine is seeking a trilateral security pact (AFP, Reuters) with Poland and the United Kingdom (UK), Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.

Pacific Rim
U.S. Official: China Failed to Fulfill ‘Phase One’ Trade Deal Commitments
The deputy U.S. trade representative said China failed to uphold its end (Reuters) of the January 2020 deal. Beijing had pledged to increase purchases of U.S. farm and manufactured goods, energy, and services by $200 billion above 2017 levels during 2020 and 2021.
 
Japan: The government plans to make Tokyo a financial hub (Nikkei) for Asian companies that are committed to achieving net-zero emissions, a top Japanese official said.

South and Central Asia
India Announces Move Toward Regulating Cryptocurrency
India announced that income from the transfer of cryptocurrencies and other digital assets will be taxed (TNN) at 30 percent. New Delhi initially signaled that it would ban cryptocurrencies (WaPo) but now plans to issue its own digital rupee.
 
This Backgrounder discusses cryptocurrencies, digital dollars, and the future of money.
 
Afghanistan: The United Nations’ human rights office urged the Taliban (OHCHR) to ensure the release of two women’s rights activists and four of their relatives, who went missing in January. 

Middle East and North Africa
China Deepens Investment in Middle East
Iraq has become one of the biggest beneficiaries (FT) of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, according to a Fudan University report. Beijing reached new construction deals worth $10.5 billion in Iraq last year.
 
U.S./UAE: The United States will send a guided-missile destroyer (Al Jazeera) and fighter jets to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the wake of attacks on the country by Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Millions Need Food Aid Amid Horn of Africa Drought
More than six million people in Ethiopia are expected to need humanitarian aid (AP) by mid-March, the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) said, as the Horn of Africa suffers what could be the region’s worst drought in forty years. A group of Somali nongovernmental organizations said more than seven million Somalis also need aid.

Americas
Peruvian President Replaces Finance Minister With Market-Friendly Pick
Shuffling his cabinet for the third time in six months, leftist President Pedro Castillo chose a former central bank economist (FT) to replace Finance Minister Pedro Francke. Francke had been one of Castillo’s most moderate cabinet members.
 
Ecuador: A landslide triggered by heavy rains killed at least twenty-two people (BBC) in the capital, Quito.

United States
Tribes Reach $590 Million Opioid Settlement With Drug Companies
Most of the country’s 574 federally recognized Native American tribes are expected to sign on to the settlement, which would allow it to move forward (NYT). The deal with Johnson & Johnson and three major drug distributors is based on disproportionately high rates of addiction and death from opioids in Native American communities.
 
This Backgrounder looks at the U.S. opioid epidemic.
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