Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
January 27, 2022
Top of the Agenda
Kremlin Hopes for Dialogue After West Denies Its Main Security Demand
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said there was “no positive response” (Moscow Times) to Russia’s main ask regarding Ukraine when the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) submitted responses to Russia’s security demands yesterday. However, he said the reply yielded “hope for the start of a serious conversation” on other issues.
 
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington maintained its refusal (NYT) to guarantee that Ukraine would never join NATO. It instead offered “transparency measures regarding force posture in Ukraine,” as well as confidence-building and arms control measures in Europe. Separately, French, German, Russian, and Ukrainian officials agreed yesterday to uphold a 2014 cease-fire agreement (DW, AFP) in eastern Ukraine.
Analysis
“Whether he [invades Ukraine] or not, the Russian president’s behavior is being driven by an interlocking set of foreign policy principles that suggest Moscow will be disruptive in the years to come,” the Brookings Institution’s Angela Stent writes for Foreign Affairs

“If Moscow believes that the main security threat it faces is NATO military infrastructure moving closer to Russia’s western borders, it would make sense to focus on the infrastructure itself, rather than the theoretical possibility of NATO expansion,” the Russian International Affairs Council’s Andrey Kortunov writes for the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Pacific Rim
WTO Sides With China in Tariff Dispute Against U.S.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) ruled that China has the right to impose tariffs (Bloomberg) on $645 million in U.S. goods in response to U.S. anti-subsidy duties.
 
This Backgrounder discusses what’s next for the WTO.
 
China: During a call with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken yesterday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi criticized U.S.-Taiwan relations (SCMP) and what he called U.S. interference in the upcoming Beijing Olympics. Wang said U.S. actions are inconsistent with a pledge both countries made in November to improve their relationship
 
This In Brief explains the debate over boycotting the Winter Olympics in Beijing.

South and Central Asia
Modi Hosts First India-Central Asia Summit
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is convening virtually (Nikkei) with leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan today. They are expected to discuss regional security in light of the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan.
 
China/India: The Chinese army returned an Indian teenager (Express News Service) who had apparently entered Chinese territory last week, an Indian official said.

Middle East and North Africa
Qatar’s Foreign Minister Visits Tehran Before Washington Trip
Qatar’s foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, met with Iranian officials today (Reuters) and will meet with U.S. officials tomorrow. The visits come after Iran’s top diplomat said Tehran is ready to consider direct nuclear talks with Washington.
 
Jordan: The military said it killed twenty-seven suspected drug smugglers (Al Jazeera) who were attempting to enter the country from Syria.
This Day in History: January 27, 1973
The United States, South Vietnam, and North Vietnam sign the Paris Peace Accords, agreeing to a cease-fire and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Vietnam.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Malawi’s President Reappoints Many After Sacking Entire Cabinet
President Lazarus Chakwera reappointed ten ministers (AFP) who were among the thirty-three he fired on Monday. The firings came after civic and religious groups said Chakwera hasn’t done enough to fight corruption.
 
Sudan: U.S. President Joe Biden plans to nominate (Sudan Tribune) career diplomat John Godfrey to be the first U.S. ambassador to Sudan in almost twenty-five years.

Europe
EU Launches WTO Complaint Against China Over Lithuania Blockade
The European Union (EU) sued China (Politico) at the WTO over new trade bans that China imposed against Lithuania for deepening ties with Taiwan.

Americas
Honduran President Sworn In Amid U.S. Hopes for Better Ties
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is attending today’s inauguration (NPR) of Honduran President Xiomara Castro. Washington has voiced hopes of working with Castro on corruption and migration issues in Central America.
 
For Foreign Affairs, Dan Restrepo writes that migrants from Central America are fleeing bad governments.
 
Chile: The country’s central bank hiked interest rates 1.5 percent (Buenos Aires Times, AFP) yesterday, its largest increase in twenty years, due to concerns over inflation.

United States
Reports: Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer to Retire
The liberal justice’s expected announcement (NYT) of his retirement would give President Biden a chance to fulfill a campaign promise to nominate a Black woman justice.
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