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DEEPER DIVE: BIDEN’S APPROVAL RATING
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

At the one-year mark, President Joe Biden has found himself with an approval rating lower than almost any in modern history.

Some 42 percent of Americans approved of Biden’s performance after a full year, according to FiveThirtyEight ([link removed]) ’s polling average. That’s low. If the country were a softball team, only the outfield would approve of Biden. Former President Donald Trump is the only commander-in-chief to be lower at this point in office, with an average 39 percent approval.

What’s driving these numbers for Biden? Headlines tell layer one of the story. We wanted to look into the rest. We pored over a long list of polls in the Biden presidency. (Here it is ([link removed]) , jump in!) Here are a few things that stood out.

FiveThirtyEight has a list of highly rated polls ([link removed]) they grade based on methodology and past accuracy. Below, we highlight polls pulled from that list.

1. The Afghanistan effect

The day Biden took the oath of office, his average approval rating stood at 53 percent – a level of support that held steady for five months. But come July 1, the president’s rating would start the largest slide of his presidency so far, dropping a total of 7.5 percentage points by early September.

The dip coincided with the U.S. pulling troops from Afghanistan: a dark-of-night withdrawal from the Bagram air base (July 2 ([link removed]) ), Biden’s announcement that he was speeding up the exit (he spoke July 8 ([link removed]) ), the Taliban’s victories and takeover of the country (July ([link removed]) and August) and the deadly U.S. exit from Kabul (late August).

By Aug. 26, Biden’s approval rating went underwater, meaning more people disapproved than approved of his performance. And so far, it has stayed that way.

2. Next factor: COVID. And COVID again

What else was happening as Biden’s approval rating was plummeting? The delta variant ([link removed]) was pushing up COVID infections. The administration that campaigned ([link removed]) on crushing the virus was facing a deadly flare that was spreading quickly.

Biden’s approval rating slid and his disapproval rating grew significantly as the omicron variant entered the world in the fall, upending travel and lives.

This dramatically changed perception of how the White House was handling the pandemic.

Fifty-eight percent of Americans approved of how Biden was handling the coronavirus in a Fox News poll last April ([link removed]) -- he earned higher ratings on that issue than on any other in that poll. By January, the latest Fox News poll ([link removed]) showed support had fallen to 46 percent. A 12-point drop.

And that’s the better-case scenario for Biden. Polling by NBC ([link removed]) indicated a larger plunge, from 69 percent in April to 44 percent this month.

One more high-profile example showed yet more of a collapse. Quinnipiac found ([link removed]) Biden had a 65 percent approval rating for handling of the coronavirus in May. In its poll this month ([link removed]) , however, Quinnipiac registered just 39 percent approval. That is the outlier in the group but is a still stunning drop of close to 30 points in a highly rated national poll.

3. Voters don’t see Biden as any more liberal than when he took office

Adding to the evidence that the president’s approval problems are connected to issues, not ideological labels, some key political views about Biden have not changed at all.

Four separate polls by the Economist/YouGov over eight months – April ([link removed]) , August ([link removed]) , October ([link removed]) of 2021 and January 2022 ([link removed]) – consistently found that between 27 and 29 percent of U.S. adults see him as “very liberal,” 20 to 21 percent believe he is “liberal” and 25 to 28 percent think he’s “moderate.” (Single-digit percentages of people consider him “conservative.”)

This is to say: Voters don’t see Biden as any more liberal than when he took office, despite Republican attempts to stress that label. It’s the perception of his performance and the state of the country that are driving polls.

4. Disapproval from Black and Hispanic voters grows

Consider these numbers, which to us may be the most striking. In April of last year, just 9 percent of Black voters disapproved of the job Biden was doing, according to a Fox News poll ([link removed]) .

But step forward nine months to January 2022. The latest Fox News ([link removed]) poll found an eye-popping 28 percent of Black voters disapprove of his performance. Hispanic voters are also increasingly dissatisfied with his job in office; the number who disapprove jumped from 25 percent in April to 39 percent now.

The Economist/YouGov poll showed similar shifts:
* 11 percent of Black voters disapproved in April ([link removed]) , compared to 24 percent now ([link removed])
* 27 percent of Hispanic voters disapproved in April, compared to 44 percent now

What’s going on?

For Hispanic voters, the greatest drop in confidence was on the coronavirus. In April’s Fox news poll, ([link removed]) a large number – 71 percent – approved of the job Biden was doing on COVID. But this month’s Fox News poll showed support down more than 20 points. That was the largest loss of support on any issue in Fox’s polling.

Other polling reveals some of what’s happening here, on a personal level. In the Economist’s January poll ([link removed]) , nearly half – 49 percent – of Hispanic voters revealed that either a family member or close friend has died due to the coronavirus. That is well above the national average of 36 percent.

At the same time, polls indicate Black voters are increasingly dissatisfied with the state of the economy. Fox News found just 16 percent disapproved of how Biden was handling the economy last April. The figure now is almost twice as high, at 31 percent.

There are personal stories here, too. Economic recovery is reaching Black people across the country far more slowly than white people. One example: unemployment. For white America, unemployment in December was in a welcome place: 3.2 percent. But the figure for Black people was more than double that, at 7.1 percent.

5. People’s perceptions vs. their own reality

Another eye-catching result here. When Fox News ([link removed]) this month asked voters to rate the economic conditions in the country right now, the outlook was rather bleak.
* 6 percent said conditions are “excellent”
* 21 percent felt they were “good”
* 35 percent responded “fair”
* 38 percent -- and the largest group said “poor”

But.

Asked about the conditions for them personally, the answer was different.
* Twice as many people, 12 percent, answered “excellent”
* 37 percent -- the largest single group -- was “good”
* 31 percent answered “fair”
* 20 percent of those polled answered “poor” (a much smaller group than above)

In other words, twice as many people felt “excellent” about their own finances than they felt about conditions in the country overall. And the single most popular feeling among people is that their own finances are “good.” But they don’t feel that way about the country.

People think the nation is in a darker, more worrisome place than they themselves feel personally. It is a fascinating sociological mismatch and a serious potential issue for Biden ahead.

More on Biden’s first year from our recent reporting:
* Watch: Biden took stock of his first year in office ([link removed]) in a rare news conference last week. He said he failed to fully grasp the level of Republican pushback to his agenda, and talked about what the next steps were for voting rights and the Build Back Better bill.
* Climate crisis: Biden wanted the U.S. to confront the “existential threat” of climate change. Here’s a close look at the key commitments ([link removed]) he made.
* Immigration: Biden promised to undo the aggressive policies of the previous administration. Was he successful? ([link removed])
* Education: Biden’s promises on education included two years of free community college, and waivers on student debt. Where do those stand today? ([link removed])
* Analysis: Two Democratic Party strategists assess the president’s job performance ([link removed]) as he faces his lowest approval ratings yet.

3 QUESTIONS WITH SHEILA CHERFILUS-McCORMICK, CONGRESS' NEWEST MEMBER
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick speaks with journalists after being declared the winner of the South Florida 20th Congressional District in November 2021. Photo by John McCall/Sun Sentinel/TNS/Abacapress.com

By Ebony Joseph, @WheresEbony ([link removed])
Producer

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, the newest member of the House of Representatives and the first Haitian from Florida to join Congress, is taking office at a critical time for Haitian politics.

In recent years, a series of natural disasters, a presidential assistantion, and an uptick in gang violence and kidnappings have threatened the country’s democracy. Cherfilus-McCormick, who is also the first woman to represent her district, said her special election win comes with a certain kind of responsibility for the Haitian community in her district and elsewhere.

Nearly half a million Haitian Americans call Florida home, giving the state the largest population of the diaspora. For the first time in nearly 50 years since Haitians began migrating to Florida, they will have a voice representing them. (Mia Love, a Utah Republican elected to the House in 2014 ([link removed]) , was the first-ever Haitian American elected to Congress.)

The PBS NewsHour spoke to Cherfilus-McCormick after her swearing-in ceremony last week to learn about her journey to Congress and what she hopes to accomplish.

The interview has been edited for length and clarity.

As you know, you’re the first Haitian American from Florida to be sent to Congress, and you’re also the first woman to hold this seat in your district. What’s that like?

When I see Haitian people, they're like, [in Creole] "Sheila, what’s going on? I need to talk to you.” And I’m like, “Yes mami?” Everyone is “mami” and “papi.” The expectation is that you now would be the singular voice to talk about the Haitian American experience, to talk about Haitian immigration policies. [U.S. immigration policies are] just not equally balanced when it comes to other countries. And to talk about Black and brown immigrants who are living in South Florida and immigrants who are living in Florida, period. So the responsibilities change. And it's a huge obligation to actually start redefining policy, because you meet people who want to talk about Haitian policies and tell you what Haitian policy should be. And you're like, “I've been Haitian all my life.” I've been talking to the community all my life, and I'm not here to parrot anyone.

I am here to bring that voice and understanding and cultural competency of being a Caribbean woman, being a Black woman and being a district full of minorities and being a district that suffers the same. So it’s a huge responsibility, and I'm excited for the challenge because now we get to tell our story. Even though the media consistently tries to paint us as one of the poorest countries in the Western Hemisphere and such a disheveled country and not democratic. But when you meet Haitian people, that is not who we are at all. We're just not the people who they paint. I'm happy to take control of our narrative.

In the middle of a tense battle to get the president's agenda passed, Build Back Better had been stalled. Voting rights have been stalled. The president said that he wants to pass this legislation into chunks and get whatever pieces he can through the House and Senate. What is your stance on the matter?

We can't afford to break it down into chunks. Not right now, because what we see is that we have a Republican Party who is really bent on obstructionism. So they're going to keep trying to block everything because they have a point to prove. And so that's why I said that if you want to say that you want to change something, pull it out. Please tell the American people very plainly what you want to take up. … because we see every thing, every initiative, every bill that was supposed to go out to the American people to benefit the American people, there's always an excuse for it not to get there. So breaking it apart is going to be an excuse for the American people to end up getting zero, and we have to be very vigilant not to let that happen.

Over 25 House Democrats have announced that they will not be seeking re-election in November. The upcoming midterms are critical for Democrats to gain enough seats to pass the legislation that’s been held up for the past year. What should Democrats be doing to earn more victories?

Organizing, organizing, organizing. We have to take control of our narrative and let the entire country know what we've been fighting for, and let the entire country know what Republicans have been fighting for. Democrats have consistently been fighting to ensure that the people recover, that the people were bailed out, that the people had access to health care, that the people had access to vaccines, had access to masks, that our children were protected when they were at school. So when you look at what Republicans have been doing, they have been increasing their fight against democracy and voting rights. They've been increasing their fight against women's right to choose. They have been increasing their fight into obstructing government from even the present elections by having the [Jan. 6] insurrection. The violence that has taken over the Republican Party, the hatred that has taken over the Republican Party is dangerous. And so we have to go out there and let the people know that this
is not the time for you to think about the old party. This is not the old Republican Party.

WE WOULD LIKE TO HEAR FROM YOU! What would you like to know about politics this year? Do you have questions about the upcoming midterms? What's happening on Capitol Hill? Voting (or barriers to voting)? Specific legislation? Tell the Here’s the Deal team here. ([link removed])

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

On this day in – well, on this actual day – President Joe Biden made an unexpected visit to a Jeni’s Splendid Ice Creams ([link removed]) shop in Washington, D.C. Jen Psaki, Biden’s press secretary, said the president’s favorite flavor is chocolate chip. (Though his grandchildren have said ([link removed]) his preference is a carton with half vanilla, half chocolate.)

Our question: Which U.S. president is credited with helping make ice cream popular in the U.S. by serving and personally recommending some recipes?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: When was the current 60-vote (a three-fifths majority) requirement established?

The answer: 1975. In 1975, the Senate reduced the number of votes required for cloture from two-thirds of senators voting to three-fifths of all senators duly chosen and sworn, or 60 of the current 100 senators.

Congratulations to our winners: Dean M. Gottehrer and Rich Siegmund!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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