BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

‘NO SIGNS OF DE-ESCALATING’: The Pentagon keeps looking for signs that Russia might be responding to U.S. entreaties to pull forces back from the border with Ukraine as a prelude to a diplomatic settlement.

But the more it looks, the more Russian troops it sees, and the more likely an invasion seems.

“They continue to add battalion tactical groups to their western border, to the border with Ukraine. And in Belarus as well, the numbers there are increasing,” said spokesman John Kirby at Monday’s Pentagon briefing. “So they have not only shown no signs of de-escalating, but they are, in fact, adding more force capability.”

“There's still room for diplomacy. We obviously want to see that succeed,” said Kirby in a later appearance on CNN. “But in the meantime, we have also seen Vladimir Putin add to his force capability … So, he has shown no signs, as I said earlier today, of de-escalating. Quite the contrary.”

“He is increasing his options by having more and more forces.”

8,500 US TROOPS PUT ON 'HEIGHTENED ALERT' AMID UKRAINE TENSIONS

IT’S NATO’S CALL: The 8,500 U.S. troops the Pentagon has put on “heightened alert” for deployment to NATO countries on the alliance's eastern flank aren’t going anywhere just yet.

“No decisions to deploy have been made,” Kirby said. “So this about getting units on an advanced heightened alert. That doesn't mean they're necessarily going anywhere.”

The show of force, if it happens, would come in the form of activation of the NATO Response Force, which was created almost 20 years ago and beefed up after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. The 8,500 troops would constitute the U.S. contribution to the 40,000-strong force which is designed to be able to deploy in 30-days, with a core brigade of 5,000 troops deployable in just five days.”

“The bulk of the troops I'm talking about today are intended for the NATO Response Force, the vast majority of them,” Kirby said. “And that response force can only be activated by the alliance. It hasn't been. It is our contribution to the Response Force, and we want to make sure that they're ready.”

Some of the 8,500 troops in the U.S. and Europe were already on a short string but have had their “Prepare to Deploy Orders” cut from 10 days to five. Whether they go as part of NRF would require consensus from all 30 NATO nations.

“It's really a decision for NATO to make,” said Kirby. “What we're trying to do is make sure that if it is, whenever that is, we're ready to go.”

Elements of the rapid reaction force were last activated in August 2021 to support the evacuation of Afghans who worked alongside NATO in Afghanistan.

NATO’S MILITARY MOVES: Meanwhile, individual NATO nations have been making largely symbolic movements of warships and fighter jets to countries on the eastern flank.

Denmark sent a frigate to the Baltic Sea and jets to Lithuania, The Netherlands is sending fighter jets to Bulgaria, Spain is sending ships to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, and the United States — for the first time in decades — has put a carrier strike group under NATO command, although it was for a long-planned exercise that had nothing to do with Russia.

“These deployments are proportionate and in line with our international commitments. And they reinforce European security for all of us,” said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg after meeting with Finnish and Swedish foreign ministers at NATO headquarters. “At the same time, NATO remains ready to continue dialogue with Russia. Following the NATO-Russia Council earlier this month, I have now invited all members to a series of further meetings to address European security, including the situation in and around Ukraine.”

Stoltenberg meets today with French Foreign Minister Jean Yves Le Drian at NATO headquarters. No media opportunity is planned.

BIDEN PREPARING US TROOPS AS RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE COULD 'COME AT ANY TIME'

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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‘TOTAL UNANIMITY’: Despite signs of cracks in the NATO alliance in exactly how to respond to Russia, President Joe Biden insisted after a virtual meeting with seven key NATO leaders, “I had a very, very, very good meeting. Total unanimity with all the European leaders.”

On the video conference call were British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, Polish President Andrzej Duda, President of the European Council Charles Michel, and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.

“Participants stressed the importance of unity at this critical time and made clear that any further Russian aggression against Ukraine would come at a high cost,” NATO said in a statement.

GERMANY’S RESERVATIONS: Among the more public fissures in the NATO alliance is the reluctance of Germany to provide weaponry to Ukraine as the prospect of a February invasion by Russia grows.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba complained on Twitter that Germany's reservations about supplying offensive weapons to Ukraine “does not correspond to the level of our relations and the current security situation.”

Speaking to reporters Monday in Berlin, Chancellor Olaf Scholz denied Germany blocked Estonia from supplying old German howitzers to Kyiv and insisted Germany is united with its NATO and European Union allies, according to the Associated Press.

Germany would continue to provide aid to Ukraine, with one exception, “We don’t provide any lethal weapons.”

MORE ARMS FLOWING: The Pentagon says the U.S. and some European allies are continuing to funnel weapons and ammunition to Ukraine to ensure Russia pays a heavy price should it invade.

“Another three deliveries of additional arms and ammunition and some security assistance material we flew to Kyiv. They have got it there. Other allies, like the Brits, are doing the same thing,” Kirby said on CNN. “We want to make sure that the Ukrainian armed forces can defend themselves. Nothing's changed about that commitment. And that's been a commitment over more than one presidential administration to make sure that the Ukrainians can defend themselves. We're going to keep doing that.”

TANKS TO POLAND: Meanwhile, the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama, Ohio Rep. Mike Turner of Ohio, ranking member on the Intelligence Committee, and Rep. Lisa McClain of Michigan are pushing to expedite the sale of top-of-the-line M1A2 Abrams tanks to Poland.

In a letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, the GOP lawmakers write, “We urge you to expedite the Congressional Notification, Foreign Military Sale, and transfer of M1A2 Abrams tanks to our steadfast ally Poland.”

“This request has been pending since the summer of 2021 and we believe that it should be accelerated to the maximum extent possible, to help deter Russian aggression,” the letter states. “Helping to equip Poland with the M1A2 tank would serve to displace Soviet-era equipment in the Polish force structure, and thus enhance interoperability with U.S. and NATO forces, while simultaneously strengthening the U.S. industrial base.”

It should be noted that foreign military sales are approved by the State Department, not the Pentagon.

PATRIOTS TO THE RESCUE: An attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels against a base in the United Arab Emirates where U.S. troops are located was thwarted by U.S. Patriot missile defense, the U.S. Central Command said Monday.

“U.S. forces at Al Dhafra Air Base, near Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates engaged two inbound missile threats with multiple Patriot interceptors coincident to efforts by the armed forces of the UAE in the early morning hours of Jan. 24, 2022,” according to a CENTCOM statement. “The combined efforts successfully prevented both missiles from impacting the base. There were no U.S. casualties.”

The attack was the second in a week against a target in the UAE. On Jan. 17, the Houthis hit a fuel depot in Abu Dhabi, killing three people.

Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley spoke with his UAE counterpart afterward and condemned both attacks. “The Chairman praised the armed forces of the UAE for successfully intercepting the threats and expressed gratitude for the combined efforts to successfully prevent the inbound missile from impacting Al Dhafra Air Base, near Abu Dhabi,” according to a statement from his spokesman.

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES INTERCEPTS BALLISTIC MISSILES FROM HOUTHI REBELS

N. KOREA'S 5TH MISSILE TEST: North Korea has fired off two missiles in the past 24 hours, but this time they were cruise missiles, which are not banned by U.N. resolutions.

It’s the fifth time this month North Korea has launched missiles, including at least two that Pyongyang claims are hypersonic missiles with a maneuverable warhead.

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Calendar

TUESDAY | JANUARY 25

9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Russia's six scenarios for a new Ukraine invasion,” with former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk; Michael Kofman, research director at the CNA Russia Studies Program; former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center; and Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

10 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Resolving the Legacies of Agent Orange: Pathways for Increased Environmental and Health Cooperation between the United States and Vietnam,” with Charles Bailey, former director of the Aspen Institute's Agent Orange in Vietnam Program; former Ford Foundation President Susan Berresford, convenor of the U.S.-Vietnam Dialogue Group on Agent Orange/Dioxin; Phan Xuan Dung, research officer at the Singapore ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute; and Andrew Wells-Dang, senior expert on Vietnam at USIP https://www.usip.org/events/resolving-legacies-agent-orange

11 a.m. — Nuclear Threat Initiative virtual seminar: “From Cyber Attack to Nuclear War: Avoiding Escalation through Cooperation,” with Christopher Painter, president of the Global Forum on Cyber Expertise Foundation and former coordinator for cyber issues at the State Department; and former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, NTI co-chair and CEO https://www.nti.org/events/christopher-painter

11 a.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: “Navalny: Putin's Nemesis, Russia's Future?" with Ben Noble, associate professor of Russian politics at University College London; Morvan Lallouet, Ph.D. candidate at the University of Kent; Jan Matti Dollbaum, postdoctoral researcher at Bremen University; and Marlene Laruelle, director of the GWU Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies https://calendar.gwu.edu/navalny-putins-nemesis

1 p.m. — Potomac Officers Club virtual discussion: “Fostering Resilient, All-Of-Nation Pandemic Response,” with Navy Chief and Surgeon General Rear Adm. Bruce Gillingham. https://potomacofficersclub.com/events

2:30 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion on a new report, "Dealing with a Taliban-Controlled Afghanistan: Supporting the Afghan People without Legitimizing the Regime,” with Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla.; former Afghan parliament deputy speaker Fawzia Koofi; Matin Bek, former chief of staff to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani; report author Lisa Curtis, senior fellow at CNAS; Kelley Currie, adjunct senior fellow at CNAS; and Richard Fontaine, CEO of CNAS https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event

WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 26 

9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Korea-Japan Relations, the U.S.-ROK Alliance, and North Korea,” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Japan and Korea Mark Lambert; and Sue Mi Terry, director of the Wilson Center's Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy https://www.csis.org/events/capital-cable-40-mark-lambert-0

10 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research web event: “What to look for in Biden’s National Security Strategy,” with Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow, AEI; Paul Lettow, former senior director for strategic planning, National Security Council; and Gabriel Scheinmann, executive director, Alexander Hamilton Society https://www.aei.org/events/what-to-look-for-in-bidens-national-security-strategy

10 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion: “Strengthening the Security Resilience of Ukraine: Military, Energy, Cyber,” with Ukrainian Parliament member Yehor Cherniev, deputy chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament Committee on Digital Transformation and head of the Permanent Delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly; Olena Pavlenko, president of the DiXi Group; Maria Zolkina, political analyst at the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation; Jonathan Katz, GMFUS senior fellow and democracy initiatives director; and Olena Prokopenko, GMFUS fellow https://www.gmfus.org/event/strengthening-security-resilience

10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Influence Without Entanglement: China's Evolving Role in the Middle East,” Jonathan Fulton, assistant professor of political science at Zayed University; Lina Benabdallah, assistant professor at Wake Forest University; and David Shullman, senior director at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/influence-without-entanglement

2 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual book discussion on The Trillion Dollar War: The U.S. Effort to Rebuild Afghanistan, 1999-2021, with author Abid Amiri, former policy director at the Afghan Ministry of Finance https://connect.gwu.edu/

3:30 p.m. — Air Force Association virtual discussion: “Air and Space Warfighters in Action,” with Maj. Gen. Case Cunningham, commander of the U.S. Air Force Warfare Center; and Brig. Gen. Shawn Bratton, commander of the Space Training and Readiness Command https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/

4 p.m. — U.S. Chamber of Commerce virtual discussion on "geopolitical hotspots in 2022,” with former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Adm. James Stavridis. https://events.uschamber.com/InSTEPStavridis

THURSDAY | JANUARY 27

8:30 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Prospects for Japanese Defense Policy and the Indo-Pacific Region." https://www.stimson.org/event/prospects-for-japanese-defense-policy

9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “What Can We Learn From the Afghanistan Experience?" with Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John Sopko https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-conversation-with-sigar-john-sopko-and-shuja-nawaz/

2 p.m. — Defense One online event: “Connecting the Battlefield: In the Age of Contested Communications,” with Cyril "Mark" Taylor, CTO, communications/J6 of the U.S. Special Operations Command; Juliana Vida, vice president of the global sector and chief strategy adviser at Splunk; and Patrick Tucker, technology editor at Defense One https://event.on24.com/wcc

7 p.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Understanding Kim Jong Un's Economic Policymaking: Implications and Opportunities,” with Rachel Minyoung Lee, nonresident fellow at Stimson; and Robert Carlin, nonresident fellow at Stimson https://www.stimson.org/event/understanding-kim-jong-un

FRIDAY | JANUARY 28

8:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Prioritizing Partnerships with Africa,” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Robert Scott; and Japanese Foreign Ministry African Department Director-General Koji Yonetani https://www.csis.org/events/prioritizing-partnerships-africa

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 2

10 a.m. CVC-200 Capitol Visitor Center — Senate Armed Services committee closed hearing on “U.S. Policy on Afghanistan,” with secret testimony from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin  CLOSED, no webcast https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 3

11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies book launch: Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence, with author Amy Zegart, senior fellow, the Hoover Institution and Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies; and Jake Harrington, intelligence fellow, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/book-launch-spies-lies-and-algorithms

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